AFC’s Sixth Seed: The Situation for Each Contender

Since 2006, more sixth seeded teams have won the Super Bowl than first seeded teams. Before analyzing each team vying for AFC’s final playoff spot, let’s first address why we should care to. While the fact above shows us not to count any team out, it’s still a valid concern. Why should we expect a team that can’t even attain a winning record in the regular season to compete against powerhouses such as the Broncos and Patriots in the postseason?



I’m here to argue that we should pay close attention to who grabs the last spot in the AFC, for while some teams may not have what it takes to beat a top-tier team, others are capable of a shocking run. The Broncos-Patriots thriller on Sunday night made this situation immensely more interesting. With the Patriots’ win, it seems highly probable that they’ll hold the 2nd seed at the end of the season. This is crucial because whoever does land the last spot will play the 3rd seed in the first round of the playoffs.

If it were the Patriots, I would be hesitant to write this article, but with it now being either the Reggie Wayne-less Colts or the inconsistent Bengals, it would make for a close match-up. With the Broncos’ loss, it seems that the winner of the AFC West and the possessor of the 1st seed will come down to this week’s match-up between Denver and Kansas City in KC.

A win for the Chiefs means they’d be slated as the second-round match-up for the sixth seed--not an easy match-up, of course, but it could be a lot more difficult. All in all, there’s a solid chance the team that can stand out from the pack and squeeze into the playoffs would have a prime opportunity to take advantage of a weak overall year for the AFC.

Let’s see what team that could be.

Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

Overview: Their match-up against the Steelers on Thanksgiving night was a do-or-die. The win essentially knocked the Steelers out of the race and put themselves on top of it. The Ravens are incredibly inconsistent, but have the potential and experience to make a run if they get in. While they currently are holding the sixth seed, the road ahead to maintain it is rough. They have to go to Detroit (6-5) and Cincinnati (7-4), as well as host New England (8-3).

How They Can Get it: Winning this Thursday night was a huge first step. While Baltimore is a shell of what they once were, they can gain momentum from this win and carry it on throughout the season. The key for them is to find the dominant defense they had in previous seasons and have shown sparks of this season.

What to Expect: This team is the one to watch. Not only did their Thanksgiving win assert themselves as the front-runner for the sixth seed, but with the experience that they have on both sides of the ball, this team is the greatest threat to whoever awaits them in the playoffs. Inconsistency explains why they are only 6-6, but also reveals that they have the potential to be great at times. If they find it at the right time, anything can happen.

Tennessee Titans (5-6)

Overview: The Titans technically held the sixth seed before the Ravens win and can get it back with a win this week, but the road ahead towards keeping that spot is far from easy. Their next three games come in Indianapolis (7-4), in Denver (9-2), and home against the Cardinals (7-4). They get to close out against the Jaguars and Texans, but the challenge here is staying relevant up to that point.

How They Can Get It: They barely fell short of the Colts a few weeks ago. If they can find a way to keep Chris Johnson going through four quarters--he scored two early TD’s that game, but did little after--they stand a good chance of leaving Indy with a win. The Cardinals are on a run but are beatable, and the Jaguars and Texans are as easy as opponents get. If they can win four of the games mentioned--assuming a loss against Denver--the sixth seed is theirs. If they win 3, they need a lot of things to go their way.

What to Expect: They definitely have a shot to secure the spot, but this isn’t the team to pull a playoff run out of the bunch. They don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball, and Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t out-firing any of the other 5 QB’s in the playoffs. It’s a one-and-done if they find a way to get in.

New York Jets (5-6) and Miami Dolphins (5-6)

Overview: I’ll put two division teams together here, for good reason. The Jets and Dolphins still have two games to go against each other. By losing last week, both of these teams put themselves in a position where they essentially have to sweep the other to make a run for the final spot. The Jets have no excuses, with the Raiders, Panthers, and Browns left--games they should be able to win at least two of. The Dolphins still have to go to Pittsburgh and host New England, so perhaps even sweeping the Jets won’t be enough.

How They Can Get it: Outside of sweeping the series, the Jets are going to have to put more trust in Geno Smith. They barely let him throw against the Ravens because of high winds, resulting in 3 total points for the team. The Jets aren’t winning any games with 127 passing yards from Geno, and aren’t making any run in the playoffs that way either. The Dolphins are in a tough position, but don’t actually have to change too much. They’ve been playing well as of late, and as long as they can keep Mike Wallace finding success deep, they may be able to pull off a run.

What to Expect: The Jets are the better option here for two reasons, neither of them being that they’re the better team. First, their schedule is easier. Second, they for some reason lose to average and bad teams but find a way to beat elite teams like the Saints and Patriots as well. Luckily for them, no bad teams are still playing in the playoffs, so if they can make it, just as we’ve seen in years past with Rex Ryan’s squad, the Jets might be the team that can make a run in the playoffs--crazy, right?

San Diego Chargers (5-6)

Overview: Following a remarkable win against the Chiefs, the Chargers would seem to be the team to beat out for the sixth spot. With the Bengals, Broncos, and Chiefs still waiting for them on their schedule, however, it doesn’t seem as if that’s the case. I would argue that this is the best team out of all on this list, but as a matter of circumstance, this one seems to be the least likely to squeeze in.

How They Can Get It: Become the old Chargers again. We saw it last week, and we need to keep seeing it if SD is serious about the playoffs. Philip Rivers is dissecting defenses like he used to, and Keenan Allen is serving as their first top-tier WR since Vincent Jackson left for Tampa Bay. Their running backs are contributing for the first time since LT was a Charger, making San Diegans start to believe in the Bolts. If Philip keeps firing, they just might pull it off.

What to Expect: A really solid 2014 season. I just don’t see them beating the Broncos, meaning they’d have to win all their other games. The Bengals will be fighting to protect their division lead, the Chiefs may be in a spot in Week 17 where they need to win for a playoff bye, the Giants will be desperate for a win to stay in their own playoff race, and even the Raiders have a chance to play spoilers in a division game. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s not likely. If I’m wrong, however, they might as well keep it going through the Super Bowl, for they have the talent and would have the momentum.

To conclude, keep an eye on this race. Some of these teams are legitimate threats to top teams, and certainly to the middle-tier teams awaiting them in the first round. It’s been done before, and as any NFL fan has learned, the fact that these teams have been labeled as dead is precisely the reason we could expect them to come alive.

Ed Reed to the Jets: An Analysis

Coming into the season, the Jets were a punchline. With the lack of production on the field in recent seasons, many began to wonder whether or not the Jets’ personnel decisions were made for the sole purpose of selling jerseys and tickets. That’s not the case anymore, as with the early success the Jets have had this season--a 5-4 record with quality wins against the Saints and Patriots--it seems illogical to doubt New York’s management.

And perhaps their best move wasn’t made until this week. 9-time Pro Bowler Ed Reed just joined the team, and the Jets are now poised and ready to make a run at a playoff spot--and, I will argue, perhaps even for the AFC title. This move is brilliant, and makes just too much sense.

Ed Reed is now reunited with his Defensive Coordinator from his rookie year in 2002 until Rex joined the Jets in 2009. He knows the system, and can literally take the field tomorrow to contribute to New York’s already strong defensive unit. It was the right move for Ed, but let’s explore why it was the right move for the Jets.

New York has made playoff runs already under Rex Ryan, but even I--as an avid Jets fan--didn’t think it was possible this year. On the 2009 and 2010 rosters, the Jets had veterans and leaders, especially on defense. If the young guys weren’t playing up to par, Bart Scott would let them hear it. If someone made a bad play and were hanging their head, Kris Jenkins would remind them there’s a whole game ahead. If it was a big moment in the game and the team needed someone to step up, Ladainian Tomlinson would make a big play. This year, the Jets don’t have that veteran.

Well, they didn’t.

They have young studs making big plays, but had no one to step up and be the leader that all Super Bowl contending teams have and need. Ed Reed is one of the most knowledgeable defensive players in the NFL, and his addition to the squad makes the Jets contention as an AFC powerhouse legitimate. So there you have it, the Jets have their leader.

Oh, and did I mention he’s a pretty good safety too? The secondary and pass defense of the Jets (ranked 22nd in the NFL) has been the weak link of the squad, and now they have a guy with 61 career interceptions under his belt. Dawan Landry and Antonio Allen are the current safeties for the Jets. They have made big plays, but also have blown coverages.

Ed Reed can help improve the Jets’ secondary, and mentor the young guys that look to be the Jets’ future at that position. He will be officially replacing Antonio Allen, partnering up with another former teammate from Baltimore in Landry as the starting safeties for Gang Green. There is so much to gain, and so little to lose. It’s a low-risk move for the Jets, who are paying him loose change compared to the $5 million he made for five games with the Texans.

As if the move doesn’t have enough intrigue, the Jets travel to Baltimore next weekend to play the Ravens--Reed and Ryan’s former team. There, we will see if Ed Reed still has “it”. If he doesn’t, this move still gives the Jets one heck of a leader, as you should now expect to see them playing in January.

NFL Statistical Over- and Underachievers Through Week 8

Will Cam Newton and the Panthers rise to the top of the NFL or compete at .500?

Pythagorean was a Greek mathematician who died over 2500 years ago. Most people know him for his theorem that A² + B² = C². In the sports world, Bill James transformed this theorem as a way to predict win expectancies in baseball. Daryl Morey took Bill James’s theory and moved it to basketball and then recently it became a way to also predict wins in the NFL. As the NFL hits the mid-season it is now time to see what teams are overachieving or underachieving based on football’s Pythagorean theorem. The theorem is:

Points For^2.37 / (Points For^2.37 + Points Against^2.37)

The formula produces an expected winning percentage. Today I am going to look at through week 8 of the NFL season which teams are doing better or worse than their expected number of wins so far this season. I did not include the Chiefs as an overachiever or the Jaguars or Buccaneers as underachievers as they are on pace to go 16-0 and 0-16 respectively and this system projects wins and loses for every team.



Underachievers:

Carolina Panthers: Current Record (4-3). The Panthers have won 57.1% of their games so far during the 2013 season, over the course of the season that projects to 9.14 wins. Yet according to their Pythagorean expectation the team should be on pace to win 12.7 games. The Carolina Panthers, based on Pythagorean expectation, are one of the best teams in the NFL this year. The projection is so optimistic because the Panthers are winning their games by an average of 24 points per game while they are losing games by an average of just 7.33. That’s an absolutely huge difference. One of the largest in the league, which is why the Panthers are expected to be much better than they are.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Current Record (2-5). The Steelers are currently on pace to win 4.57 games if they continue their 2-5 pace over the course of the season. The Steelers Pythagorean expectation is 6.12 wins. That means the Steelers are under performing by nearly 1.5 wins so far through 7 games. While this does not show the degree that the Steelers have been disappointing to many people, the Steelers are still not winning as many games as they should be. The Steelers have lost their 5 games by average of 8.8 points per game. Their average win has been 6.5 points which is why you would expect to see the Steelers to be on pace to win more games than they have.

Atlanta Falcons: Current Record (2-5). The Falcons just like the Steelers with the same record are on pace to win just 4.57 games this year. Yet the Falcons based on their points scored and given up should be on pace to win 7.03 games this year. That’s a difference nearly 2.5 wins over the course of the season and already over a win through 7 games. The Falcons were for many a Super Bowl pick this year; yet, not only have injuries hurt them, but also some bad luck. The Falcons based on the points scored and given up should be a better team this year. Some of this has to do with the fact that in their wins the Falcons have won by an average of 7.5 points, yet in their loses the Falcons have been outscored by of an average of just 6.6.

Overachievers:

Detroit Lions Current Record (5-3) The Lions are currently on pace to go 10-6. Yet their Pythagorean theorem for football has the team winning just 8.91 games. In the competitive NFC, the difference between making and missing the playoffs very easily could be the difference between going 9-7 or 10-6 especially after last year when even 10-6 could not make the postseason. This expectation is partially influenced by the Lions winning their 5 games by an average of 8 points a game while their 3 loses have been by an average of 7 points. The Lions will need to continue to hope to overachieve if they want to make the postseason this year.

New York Jets Current Record (4-4) The Jets are shocking many people by being .500 through the midway point of the season. Most people saw the Jets as a team closer to competing for the first pick than a playoff spot. To those people it may not be a sursprise that the Jets happen to be the NFL’s greatest overachiever through 8 weeks. Based on their current points for and against the Jets are team that should win 28.5% of their games which would be the Jets at approximately 2-6 through 8 games. The Jets are currently on pace to finish 8-8, yet have a Pythagorean win expectation of just 4.55 wins for the season. The Jets are the one of two teams who are .500 or better and have a negative point differential. The Jets average win has been by just 3.25 points while their loses have been by average of 20.25 point. The Jets have been one of the luckiest teams winning close games and getting blown out in loses.

Denver Broncos Current Record (7-1) The Broncos as an overachiever seemed extremely surprising considering the Broncos have averaged 42.88 points per game and have won their average game by 18.7 points while their sole loss was by just 6 points. The Broncos current pace has them finishing at 14-2 being the 10th team in the last 11 years to finish 14-2 or better. The Pythagorean theorem thinks that might be a bit ambitious having them nearly 2 wins worse with a projection of just 11.9 wins for the season or less than 6 wins so far this year. Even a small regression by the Broncos in the second half the season will still leave the Broncos battling for the AFC West title as well as one of the top seeds in the AFC.

Like any prediction model, the Pythagorean expectation for the NFL is not perfect. But it will be interesting to see how if teams underachieving at the half way point play better and will overachieving teams fall apart in the second half of the season. Will the Falcons and Steelers begin to play closer to some of the pre-season hype and move towards respectability? Will the Jets and Lions continue to compete for a post-season birth or regress back towards the middle and bottom of their conferences?







The team that to me is most interesting is the Carolina Panthers. Currently the Panthers are 2 games behind the Saints in the NFC South, yet they are expected to be better than the Saints by .5 game based on the Pythagorean expectation. Will the Panthers win the South and compete for a bye in the NFC or simply fight to make the post season?

Event Recap: Brian Friedman ('95)

On Friday, September 27th, the Sports Business Society was pleased to present its first in-person speaker of the year, Brian Friedman (’95). A graduate from CALS, Friedman is currently in his fourth year as the Chief Financial Officer for the New York Jets.

On his current role...

Friedman kicked off the discussion describing what responsibilities came with his position, and what tasks he was expected to complete on a daily basis. In his role, he told listeners, he oversees everything financial within the Jets organization, requiring him to know “a little about a lot.” He put his own twist on a popular phrase, describing that his job requires him to be "the jack of all trades, master of all trades." Learning about all fields is an essential aspect of his job, equipping him with the knowlege challenge experts and monitor investments put forth by the team in all areas. For that reason, there is no standard day for him--but he was not one to complain. "The variety of tasks," he explained, "keeps things interesting."

On his uncommon transition...

Before joining the Jets, Friedman was the CFO of Blissworld, LLC, a spa and retail product company. When asked about his career path, he told the audience of what he called “the common transition from women’s skin care to football.” While he may have gotten laughs, he viewed the transition as logical. He never fully understood the skin care products he was selling, but his job wasn’t to convince women to buy the product--that’s not in the CFO’s job description. For the same reason, he later pointed out, Jets owner Woody Johnson didn’t care nor ask whether or not Friedman was an avid Jets fan, but instead if he could get the job done.

Friedman stressed that he values every step in his path toward being where he is today. When giving advice to the students later in the discussion, he explained that he felt “the days of taking one job and staying there for life are over.” He thinks that if an individual only works at one place for his/her entire life, that individual will not be able to see other ways of getting things done. The knowledge received in early jobs, he continued, is even more crucial than compensation. Learning curves should be steep, and if they begin to level off, he advises for an individual to do something about it to make it steep again. He doesn’t believe he would be where he is today without his earlier positions and the knowledge, skills, and abilities he attained through them.

On hosting Super Bowl XLVIII...

With the Super Bowl coming to New York, Friedman was asked numerous questions concerning his feelings and approach going into the mega-event. While excited, Friedman illustrated the extreme difficulty behind the preparation. He constantly has to go through every conceivable thing that can happen during the game, but as he told the crowd, you never really can go through every possible situation.

He was in New Orleans for last years Super Bowl, sitting in the same box as the event planners and big names responsible for the game that year. The lights went out during the 3rd quarter, postponing the game for 34 minutes, causing a frantic scene in the box he was sitting in, and perhaps making him second-guess the pleasantries behind hosting the Super Bowl.

In any case, he explained, he is happy to bring such an amazing event to New York--or, technically, New Jersey. "On Sundays, Metlife Stadium is already the fifth largest city in New Jersey," he said half-serious, we can only imagine what it will be like when that Sunday in February brings the largest annual sports event to the bright lights in the Meadowlands.

His advice to students...

When asked to give advice to students who may want to pursue the same career that Friedman did, he told the crowd to go out and learn. He pointed towards the learning curve alluded to earlier and told the room to understand a skill, and go for things--don’t stay on the sidelines. The best business advice that he claimed he’s ever gotten to this day is that it’s “better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission." Make mistakes, learn from them, and don’t stop learning. Friedman clearly remembers what it was like to be in the students’ shoes, and seemed passionate and sincere while sharing this advice.

As always, the Cornell Sports Business Society extends its thanks to alumni like Brian Friedman who take time to share their experiences with our members. The information and insight people like Friedman provide to our group is unique and indispensable, and we hope that this is the first of many great events with him.

Event Preview: Three Questions With Brian Friedman ('95)

On Friday, September 27, the Cornell Sports Business Society is pleased to be hosting Brian Friedman ('95).  Friedman is currently in his fourth year as the Chief Financial Officer for the New York Jets.

Friedman is responsible for all financial planning and daily accounting operations for the team, financial oversight of the team's interest in MetLife Stadium and all internal and external reporting to the NFL and various other agencies. Additionally, he oversees information technology and practice facility operations.

Prior to joining the Jets, Friedman was the chief financial officer of Blissworld, LLC, the owner and operation of Bliss spas and seller of a full line of retail skin care products. At Bliss, he was responsible for all financial operations.

Before joining Bliss, he was the senior director of finance for the Columbia House Company and prior to that held several finance roles of increasing responsibility at Polo Ralph Lauren. Friedman began his career at Price Waterhouse and is a certified public accountant.

Friedman graduated from CALS, majoring in AEM, and has an MBA from Columbia University.

 In preparation for our event with Brian, we conducted a 3Q interview that would help preview the content that will be covered on Tuesday.


(1) What do you find to be the most fulfilling part of your job in your fourth season as the Jets' Chief Financial Officer?

In a word – Sunday. The most fulfilling part of my job is being part of an organization that millions of people are so passionate about. Seeing all the work show up on Sunday’s is a great feeling. Whether it is fan experience at the game or advertisements during the post-game show, being in a role that touches every part of the business, when that business is football, is just fantastic.

(2) What is it like to be involved with the planning of the first ever cold weather Super Bowl?

It is a tremendous experience to see how an event of this magnitude takes shape. The number of people involved with planning and executing a Super Bowl is unbelievable. The necessity to imagine every unimaginable scenario and plan for it is something to witness. When indoors your biggest issue is to make sure the lights stay on, with our stadium the list of potential issues is endless.  

(3) Friday will be your first-ever event with the Cornell Sports Business Society. What are some of your objectives in engaging Cornell students who may be interested in careers in sports and/or finance?

My goal is simple – to try and leverage my experience to help current students achieve their career goals. I am very fortunate that I get to work in a job that I have a passion for in an industry that I have always been interested in. My experiences at Cornell had a huge impact on my life and gave me a foundation to achieve many things throughout my career.

BONUS:  What do you miss most about your days at Cornell?

I miss the freedom, the camaraderie, spending every day with lifelong friends who are now spread all across the country. During my summer job before my senior year, my boss told me to enjoy Cornell because life is like one giant final exam. Truer words were never said – enjoy the time here.

Brian will be speaking to the Cornell Sports Business Society in person on Friday, September 27th. Please join us in Ives 105 at 4:30. For more information, check out the event on Facebook.

 We hope you can make it!