AFC’s Sixth Seed: The Situation for Each Contender

Since 2006, more sixth seeded teams have won the Super Bowl than first seeded teams. Before analyzing each team vying for AFC’s final playoff spot, let’s first address why we should care to. While the fact above shows us not to count any team out, it’s still a valid concern. Why should we expect a team that can’t even attain a winning record in the regular season to compete against powerhouses such as the Broncos and Patriots in the postseason?



I’m here to argue that we should pay close attention to who grabs the last spot in the AFC, for while some teams may not have what it takes to beat a top-tier team, others are capable of a shocking run. The Broncos-Patriots thriller on Sunday night made this situation immensely more interesting. With the Patriots’ win, it seems highly probable that they’ll hold the 2nd seed at the end of the season. This is crucial because whoever does land the last spot will play the 3rd seed in the first round of the playoffs.

If it were the Patriots, I would be hesitant to write this article, but with it now being either the Reggie Wayne-less Colts or the inconsistent Bengals, it would make for a close match-up. With the Broncos’ loss, it seems that the winner of the AFC West and the possessor of the 1st seed will come down to this week’s match-up between Denver and Kansas City in KC.

A win for the Chiefs means they’d be slated as the second-round match-up for the sixth seed--not an easy match-up, of course, but it could be a lot more difficult. All in all, there’s a solid chance the team that can stand out from the pack and squeeze into the playoffs would have a prime opportunity to take advantage of a weak overall year for the AFC.

Let’s see what team that could be.

Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

Overview: Their match-up against the Steelers on Thanksgiving night was a do-or-die. The win essentially knocked the Steelers out of the race and put themselves on top of it. The Ravens are incredibly inconsistent, but have the potential and experience to make a run if they get in. While they currently are holding the sixth seed, the road ahead to maintain it is rough. They have to go to Detroit (6-5) and Cincinnati (7-4), as well as host New England (8-3).

How They Can Get it: Winning this Thursday night was a huge first step. While Baltimore is a shell of what they once were, they can gain momentum from this win and carry it on throughout the season. The key for them is to find the dominant defense they had in previous seasons and have shown sparks of this season.

What to Expect: This team is the one to watch. Not only did their Thanksgiving win assert themselves as the front-runner for the sixth seed, but with the experience that they have on both sides of the ball, this team is the greatest threat to whoever awaits them in the playoffs. Inconsistency explains why they are only 6-6, but also reveals that they have the potential to be great at times. If they find it at the right time, anything can happen.

Tennessee Titans (5-6)

Overview: The Titans technically held the sixth seed before the Ravens win and can get it back with a win this week, but the road ahead towards keeping that spot is far from easy. Their next three games come in Indianapolis (7-4), in Denver (9-2), and home against the Cardinals (7-4). They get to close out against the Jaguars and Texans, but the challenge here is staying relevant up to that point.

How They Can Get It: They barely fell short of the Colts a few weeks ago. If they can find a way to keep Chris Johnson going through four quarters--he scored two early TD’s that game, but did little after--they stand a good chance of leaving Indy with a win. The Cardinals are on a run but are beatable, and the Jaguars and Texans are as easy as opponents get. If they can win four of the games mentioned--assuming a loss against Denver--the sixth seed is theirs. If they win 3, they need a lot of things to go their way.

What to Expect: They definitely have a shot to secure the spot, but this isn’t the team to pull a playoff run out of the bunch. They don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball, and Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t out-firing any of the other 5 QB’s in the playoffs. It’s a one-and-done if they find a way to get in.

New York Jets (5-6) and Miami Dolphins (5-6)

Overview: I’ll put two division teams together here, for good reason. The Jets and Dolphins still have two games to go against each other. By losing last week, both of these teams put themselves in a position where they essentially have to sweep the other to make a run for the final spot. The Jets have no excuses, with the Raiders, Panthers, and Browns left--games they should be able to win at least two of. The Dolphins still have to go to Pittsburgh and host New England, so perhaps even sweeping the Jets won’t be enough.

How They Can Get it: Outside of sweeping the series, the Jets are going to have to put more trust in Geno Smith. They barely let him throw against the Ravens because of high winds, resulting in 3 total points for the team. The Jets aren’t winning any games with 127 passing yards from Geno, and aren’t making any run in the playoffs that way either. The Dolphins are in a tough position, but don’t actually have to change too much. They’ve been playing well as of late, and as long as they can keep Mike Wallace finding success deep, they may be able to pull off a run.

What to Expect: The Jets are the better option here for two reasons, neither of them being that they’re the better team. First, their schedule is easier. Second, they for some reason lose to average and bad teams but find a way to beat elite teams like the Saints and Patriots as well. Luckily for them, no bad teams are still playing in the playoffs, so if they can make it, just as we’ve seen in years past with Rex Ryan’s squad, the Jets might be the team that can make a run in the playoffs--crazy, right?

San Diego Chargers (5-6)

Overview: Following a remarkable win against the Chiefs, the Chargers would seem to be the team to beat out for the sixth spot. With the Bengals, Broncos, and Chiefs still waiting for them on their schedule, however, it doesn’t seem as if that’s the case. I would argue that this is the best team out of all on this list, but as a matter of circumstance, this one seems to be the least likely to squeeze in.

How They Can Get It: Become the old Chargers again. We saw it last week, and we need to keep seeing it if SD is serious about the playoffs. Philip Rivers is dissecting defenses like he used to, and Keenan Allen is serving as their first top-tier WR since Vincent Jackson left for Tampa Bay. Their running backs are contributing for the first time since LT was a Charger, making San Diegans start to believe in the Bolts. If Philip keeps firing, they just might pull it off.

What to Expect: A really solid 2014 season. I just don’t see them beating the Broncos, meaning they’d have to win all their other games. The Bengals will be fighting to protect their division lead, the Chiefs may be in a spot in Week 17 where they need to win for a playoff bye, the Giants will be desperate for a win to stay in their own playoff race, and even the Raiders have a chance to play spoilers in a division game. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s not likely. If I’m wrong, however, they might as well keep it going through the Super Bowl, for they have the talent and would have the momentum.

To conclude, keep an eye on this race. Some of these teams are legitimate threats to top teams, and certainly to the middle-tier teams awaiting them in the first round. It’s been done before, and as any NFL fan has learned, the fact that these teams have been labeled as dead is precisely the reason we could expect them to come alive.