Blogger Roundtable: NFL Free Agency Analysis

The wondrous period that is free agency has gotten underway in the NFL and the first two weeks have been exciting to say the least. Multiple big names around the league will be wearing a different uniform next year as they settle into their newest destination. We have seen the two Super Bowl contenders make some key signings that they hope will propel them to a return trip to the big game. Meanwhile, other teams are trying to make strategic signings in an attempt to fill holes before the draft on May 8th.

We asked our blogger's who they thought made the best free agent signing thus far. Here is what they had to say:

Matthew Hakimian, Featured Blogger- Darrelle Revis to the New England Patriots

As a Jets fan it hurts to say this but Darrelle Revis to the New England Patriots was a steal. Still one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Revis was cut last week by the new regime in Tampa Bay. After essentially trading Revis for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Sheldon Richardson, the Jets had the opportunity to sign the star corner, but Woody Johnson didn't want to deal with the drama. Bill Belichick saw a golden opportunity as the Pats scooped Revis up; I guess Revis has to apologize to his new head coach now though.

Stephen Dreznick, Featured Blogger- Denver Broncos

The best NFL free agency signings were done by the Denver Broncos. After having their defense embarrassed in the Super Bowl, they used their money to acquire Demarcus Ware and Aqib Talib. Even though people think that they overpaid for these players, they were able to improve their defense with Pro Bowl players. This, coupled with their high powered offense led by Peyton Manning, makes them serious contenders for a shot at the 2015 Super Bowl.

John Zakour, Featured Blogger- Jairus Byrd to the New Orleans Saints

The best signing of NFL free agency was the Saints and Jairus Byrd. The Saints supposedly couldn't free up any cap space, yet they reeled in the best free agent of the class and at an obvious position of need. People forget amidst their near record setting offense how pivotal elite safety play was to their Super Bowl year. The Saints are poised to put themselves in a great position to replicate their magical year.

Max Fogle, Editor-in-Chief- Every Team Who Doesn't Sign an Expensive Free Agent

While free agents definitely can be an important addition to playoff and championship teams, plenty of teams have success without breaking the bank for free agents.  This is probably due to the fact that good teams have a productive core of players already under contract taking up most of the cap space.  It's really not a bold statement to say that many good teams this season will not sign major free agents this spring.

Be sure to comment below to let us know your opinion.

'One and Done' College Basketball Players

In the past few years, the concept of 'one and done' college basketball players - freshmen who enter the NBA Draft after just one season of college ball - has become increasingly prevalent.  There is much debate over this issue, and three common opinions prevail:
         
            1. 'One and done' is okay
            2. These players should be forced to play two years (or be two years removed from high school)
            3. They should be able to go pro directly out of high school. Something high profile players such as Lebron James and Kobe Bryant have successfully done.

While it is understood that star point guards such as Kyrie Irving and Derrick Rose missed out on their college experience by declaring for the NBA Draft after just one year in college, let's take a look at the impact eliminating the concept of 'one and done' would potentially have on the 2014 NBA Draft, which is being hyped as possibly one of the best of drafts of all time.

According to a recent mock draft, done by www.draftnet.com, 5 of the top 7 projected picks are college freshman, and another is an international player from Australia who is the same age.  So, changing the 'one and done' rule would eliminate the eligibility of all of the projected top 7 picks except for one: Marcus Smart, a sophomore from Oklahoma State.

This is a huge difference. Prospects like Andrew Wiggins, pictured above, are being considered the best players to come out of high school since LeBron James back in 2003.  His teammate at Kansas, center Joel Embiid, has only been playing basketball for a few years since moving to the United States from Cameroon and was named the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

Jabari Parker, another freshman phenom being coached by Mike Krzyzewski at Duke University, is potentially the #1 pick in this year's draft.  He, like Derrick Rose, an MVP back in 2010-11, is from Chicago and went to Simeon High School - most people believe that Parker was a better talent than Rose was coming out of high school.

The bottom line is that recent drafts have been dominated by players leaving after their freshman year of college.  The entire landscape of the NBA Draft will be different if this rule is eliminated.  If a rule change occurs, due to the belief that these players are either not mature enough or need to get a better college education, then the way we look at the breakdown of both college basketball and the NBA will change completely.

Start-Up Spotlight: PremierSports

As a young athlete, private sports lessons can be vital in helping you establish a baseline for technical and tactical skills. You may have taken private sports lessons with coaches in your area that you heard about via word-of-mouth or were recommended to you by a teammate. However, not all athletes have the opportunity to meet qualified coaches.

Based on their previous athletic experiences, Cornell student Alfonse Muglia and graduate of The College of New Jersey Mathew Barrett have teamed together to develop PremierSports, a booking platform that connects private coaches with passionate athletes.

Over 100 coaches signed onto the platform in its first month open, mostly high school coaches and college coaches in the New York metropolitan area.

“PremierSports believes that an athlete’s likelihood to reach their goals should not be based on their economic upbringing,” Muglia said.

The company aims to create an online forum that acts as an intermediary, allowing athletes across the nation to search coaches.

Instead of hearing about a great coach through a friend-of-a-friend you can simply search the coaches in your area, set a traveling distance, a price range, and compare their qualifications.

Muglia, previous vice president of the magazine, states that ILRSBS has positively impacted his growth as an entrepreneur, teaching him how to “apply leadership skills within the sports industry,” and giving him a “network of friends to share ideas with.”

Although Cornell’s campus is not dominated by dedicated, cheering sport’s fans similar to other State Schools, Muglia, accompanied by other students on campus, have turned their abstract ideas into concrete improvements for the sports community at large.

This can be seen not only through PremierSports, but other organizations as well such as Big Red Sports Network, Batting Leadoff, and Rivalry Wear.

Muglia and Barrett have established an exciting, extremely useful business model that will surely make a difference in the world of young elite athletes.

SSAC Recap Day 2

For those of you that missed the 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, I wished to provide a recap. Last week, I covered Day 1's Panels.  Here are some shorthand notes from Day 2:

Panel #1: Getting in the Game: Launching a Career in Sports 

Panelists: Moderator Matt Sebal, Jennifer Cabalquinto, Robert Gallo, Debbie Knowlan, John Hollinger, and Russell Scibetti 

Cabalquinto: Newly Appointed CFO of Golden State Warriors- Accounting background at EY (Like Me), this is my dream job!

- CFO is more of a financial and management role, is faced with challenges of new arena decisions (how many seats, floor plan,etc.) and how to use analytics with this 

Hollinger: Analytics are used for salary cap maximization, much of what his job entitles, how players from other leagues (D league, europe) would translate in NBA 

Scibetti- You do not always have to start in sports, "No shame in calling yourself a salesman" 

NFL has seen in rise of analytics and strategy groups 

NBA uses it for player development positions- basketball skills are becoming more useful for this job

Cabalquinto: Warriors are currently hiring and looking for people for their business analytics team, marketing analytics, and Innovation Lab 

- you must learn of how to differentiate yourself from others, primarily with your skill sets, its not just "I wanna work in sports" 

- way to set yourself apart is to demonstrate and find a niche of the business that is not served- Example: Darren Rovell 

Final takeaways: networking is important, translating your skill sets, skills you develop before entering sports world, persistence, and finding a good mentor 

Panel #2: Risking It All: Why Championship Athletes Dope and What It Means For Sport

Panelists: Moderator Bonnie Ford, Tyler Hamilton, and Travis Tygart 

Marked the first unique time that the CEO of the Anti-Doping Agency (Tygart) discussed with Hamilton 

- The Anti-Doping Agency is a non-governmental private organization 

Tygart: "analytics are only as good as their foundation" 

Hamilton: when competing, I was "more worried about getting caught than winning races" 

SSAC Recap Day 1

For those of you that missed the 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, I wished to provide a recap.  Here are some shorthand notes from Day 1.
Opening Remarks: Daryl Morey (Geek Elvis) and Jessica Gelman

The theme for this year’s conference is ripple to revolution, describing how the field of analytics has grown in the sports world over the past few years, thanks in part to this conference. It started as a small field and known has become an integral part of competition. About 2,000 people were in attendance for the conference, which had approximately 1,000 on the waitlist alone. 10% of the attendees are international; there are 800 students from 180 institutions, and 360 sports organizations in attendance. The “heart” of the conference is the 26 panels offered. There are also four innovative areas to highlight:

1. Research Papers- with over 300 submission and 8 finalists

2. “Evolution of Sports” Talks

3. Trade Show Blitz- Start Ups Pitching Ideas to Venture Capital/ PE Firms

4. Competitive Adjustment: presented by industry experts



Panel #1: Athlete Analytics: Instrumentation, Training, and Injuries
Panelists: Shira Springer (moderator), Andrew Luck, Matthew Hasselbeck, John Brenkus, Adir Shiffman, and Qaizar Hassoujee

1st topic was on the evaluation of NFL Combine Process - Hasselbeck had interesting experience- was not invited to it after entering draft as Junior, was in same draft as Ryan Leaf and Peyton Manning

A.Luck- “There is merit to the interviews and psychological testing done”, wants to see as a QB more football specific movements as part of combine, such as simulating 2 minute drill, how to quantify focus and clock management

Brenkus- interesting to note that the 40 yard dash does not really matter for wide receivers- look at times of Jerry Rice and Larry Fitzgerald, change of direction and stopping is more important - for quarterbacks an important metric is concerning their release, not overall arm strength, ex: Kaepernick tested high for quick release

Shiffman- the real challenge is to provide data that is valid, 3rd party testing is needed

JB- it’s all about context, the defensive rookie of the year the last three years has done well in the combine - Florida State and its injury prevention use of analytics with performance maximization - great success was no soft tissue injuries at Combine this year

AL & MH: see it as a hindrance to wear performance-wearing tracking technology, too bulky - This year the Colts tried out different wearables, such as corrective posture shirts and masks that simulated altitude play

S: if athletes are aware that they are wearing technology, then the technology is a failure- they are conscious of it - most of the early adopters of new technology are the teams that are on the cusp of greatness and cannot buy additional success in free agency - baseball is most hesitant to adopt new technology, have very traditional approach

JB: bat speed actually goes down if you swing a weighted bat in on deck circle, argues that players should be swinging a whiffleball bat instead - NASCAR seen as head of analytics- always looking for ways to shave 1/100th of second

MH: we are always concentrating on studying the analytics on the opponent, might need to look at data on ourselves more

JB: there exists a generational gap when thinking about different levels of education on technology, e.g. some coaches are still very old school

How they all see future of this field

S: in- ball technology, inertial movement

AL: invisible sensors

MH: hydration levels testing, head impacts

Q: college level, sport specific, fan engagement

JB: defining standards Colts use analytics most in terms of 3rd down blitz tendencies and red zone situations Buzz word: CONTEXT the “holy grail” is predictive analytics

What they would like to see measured

AL: pitch count/ arm throw count and analysis

S: position-specific data

MH: recovery methods- which are best

JB: sport psychology

Final comment by Hasselbeck: would be interesting to put a heart rate monitor on Adam Vinatieri when he is about to kick game winner vs. all other kickers in league



Panel #2: Man & Machine: Real Time Data and Referee Analytics

Panelists: Hank Adams, Michael Bantom, Dan Brooks, Mike Carey, Paul Hawkins, Tom Penn (moderator)

Bantom: most important thing is for referees to maintain their focus over emotions

Adams: created SportVision, which is used for 1st down lines in football

Hawkins- sports of cricket, tennis, and soccer have real time computer decisions, have a signal that is relayed to the referee’s watch when ball crosses goal line in soccer (goal to increase the speed in soccer) - goal for referees and technology creators is to not get noticed, Example: arguably best tennis match of all time 2009 Wimbledon Final (Nadal vs. Federer)- was a critical line call play that was called correctly Brooks- sorts through the SportVision data and maps calls of umpires in MLB, some people are unhappy with inconsistencies

Bantom: NBA has log of every call made in the last 10 years and they rate each one as correct or incorrect, looking for next year to have a centralized location for calls and replay reviews

Carey: issue of player safety, NFL is “game of inches”- get tough calls with “double action”, where knee hits, ball hits and breaks plane - there has been an adaptive habit among players of how to approach tackles by not hitting with the helmet

Hawkins: issues in soccer with cheating in regards to diving vs. what is actually a genuine foul - future may look at review of red cards and other fouls to possibly overturn, want to be proactive with approach rather than reactive, Example: Lampard goal that was overturned in the England vs. Germany match in World Cup Carey: still uses rubber bands on each of his fingers during games to keep track of what down it is - “most difficult call is catch/no catch” - again it’s a game of inches- there is human judgment error when it comes to marking where a player is down on a field, where the chains are placed for the 1st down, how that compares to the SportVision computerized line we see on TV, is chain actually precisely 10 yards?, etc.

Hawkins: in soccer, it would be easier to judge call if it was based on whether middle of ball crossed goal line for goal

Brooks: catcher framing in baseball is arguably worth up to 20 wins a season- where you are fooling umps, what is value of Molina brothers? - would be hard to apply technology that soccer uses for NHL goals due to speed of puck, how much of puck crosses line, etc.

Bantom: in NBA, there is great transparency, as fans are able to see what officials see in terms of replay reviewing - However in MLB, interesting that there is no explanation of calls by umpires to the fans

 Panel #3: College Football’s Playoff Selection Dilemma Presented by ESPN

Panelists: Jeff Bennett (moderator), Dean Oliver, Alok Pattani, Brad Edwards, and Chris Fallica

- ESPN Stats & Info provides metrics such as expected points and probability models to help sort out Playoff selections - also includes strength of schedule calculations and adjusted ratings of team strength - going past the “eye test”, looking at how the game played out, Ex: FSU was up 42-0 in 2nd quarter

- 12 committee members comprising selection committee- How many of them are watching games/ which ones are they watching? ALL members are over 50 years old- cause for concern????

Key distinction is between “Best” and “most deserving” team- last year’s title game: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (undefeated, what did their resume look like, were they deserving??) - all panelists agree that Notre Dame would have been 4th seed in playoff

BIGGEST PROBLEM: determining who is 4th seed - looking at polls does not tell the story necessarily, Example: Gonzaga in NCAA Tournament last year, #1 seed (was #1 in AP Poll), with AP Poll you have to reassess every week win probability

- can look at metrics now such as final score margin, other team stats, average in-game win probability at different points in game

- Strength of Schedule is relative to perspective, there are different ratings and systems of how to configure SOS

The March Madness Selection committee is provided with a “Nitty Gritty” sheet when enter meeting with bunch of different stats and columns on teams - CFB Playoff Committee will be provided with NOTHING 

Panelists Now Had Activity Where Audience had chance to vote given blind resume tests from previous years to see who they would vote in/out of playoff system, would compare with panelists’ opinion and what the numbers said
First talked about FSU this year and looking at performance vs. level of competition - Loss Tolerance- Was actually found that it would be harder to go 12-1 with Auburn’s SOS vs. going 13-0 with FSU SOS

Scenario #1: revealed to be 2008 Alabama (only loss to #1 Florida in SEC Championship) vs. USC (conference champs)- numbers favor Alabama

Head to head matchups were a high priority for the panelists

#2: Stanford (11-1) vs. Oregon (11-2) in 2011- Oregon destroyed Stanford in regular season, votes and numbers favored Oregon

#3: 2013 4th seed: Alabama vs. MSU vs. Stanford- audience mostly voted to leave out MSU, but numbers say Stanford would be left out

Panel #4: Beyond the 4-4-2: Soccer Analytics

Panelists: Taylor Twellman(moderator), Steven Houston, Robbie Mustoe, Jim Pallotta, and Paul Neilson

 Latest development in soccer analytics: rise of technical scouts and positional data, future is with physiological and social fields - interesting that there is rise in U.S. owners in Europe (Pallotta with AS Roma as example)

Look at economics with transfers and acquisitions- Is Wayne Rooney really worth $500,000/ week? Tottenham was able to acquire Gareth Bale for 7 M pounds and later sold him to Real Madrid for about 87M pounds

Pallotta: At Roma, strategy is to build strength in the midfield, middle of pitch and with defense (which has given up least amount of goals in Europe this year) - notion of buying one star player and surrounding him with other players goes against his philosophy of success

Prime example: Dortmund has no real “star” players, are able to identify quality players before they become great - analytics is seeking to understand playing styles better, and how certain players can fit system of clubs Best way for teams to get better is to improve revenue streaming, attract better players

 Panel #5: Basketball Analytics

Panelists: Steve Kerr, Stan Van Gundy, Brad Stevens, Mike Zarren, moderator Zach Lowe SportVU cameras in every NBA arena now!!

Kerr: interesting to see that for Miami, they are not concerned with their low offensive rebounding numbers because they create turnovers and get more possessions, more efficient than most teams

SVG: you need a style to fit the players/personnel you have, there are different interpretations of pick n’ roll defenses - can’t get caught up in hiring guys that only know analytics and do not know the game of basketball: idea that you can substitute numbers and analytics for actually watching the games - “ I read a useless stat in this ESPN Magazine that said Paul George has ran the most in the league (130 miles). What possible use is that?”

- Stan Van Gundy was by far the most entertaining panelist at the conference! He was in a sense playing "Devil's Advocate" but his arguments were convincing

BS: have noticed some psychological analytics- observe Dirk’s interaction with his teammates, constant talking and communication, always smiling

SK: would be nice to have a measure of conditioning and to be able to measure the stress these players put on their bodies throughout the season

SVG: discussion on the balance between work and rest, many teams now resting their players on some nights or not playing as many minutes “ Michael Jordan when he won his 6 titles never averaged less than 38 minutes/game”

- Tom Thibodeau has success despite injuries because he plays his good guys more minutes than most coaches - why it seems there are more injuries than ever in NBA? Increase in pick n’roll play and strategy, lot more guards attacking rim, very few practices during the season now

“Minute restrictions are BS” - Interesting theory on why Derrick Rose is getting hurt so often: Van Gundy says that guys in league are becoming stronger and more explosive than ever, D.Rose is most explosive in his attacks= larger load on his knees= more injuries Is it the best to be training our players to become stronger and more explosive? Lebron would say yeah

SK: if I am hiring someone in the front office, I want someone with both an analytics and basketball background ideally

Zarren: TANKING solution = the WHEEL(Wheel) – basically picks in perpetuity that would eliminate current lottery system in aims to avoid tanking, submitted it to the league 2 years ago

major criticism: college player that aims at typical team, might stay for another year in college if he knows he’s going somewhere like Milwaukee - could be solved with saying top 3 picks are thrown in a hat, no certainty player knows what team he will end up on or if that pick will be traded

- Another MIT conference staple, Mark Cuban, has provided his idea to avoid tanking, which includes not giving the worst 3 teams in the league picks in the draft, giving an incentive to at least finish 4th worst(Cuban Solution)

Colangelo (Cornell grad!)- Admitted to tanking as Raptors GM a few years ago towards end of season

 This concludes PART 1 of My Recap. PART 2 will cover 2nd Day of Panels.

Manziel for the Money

If i'm either Shahid Khan or Wayne Weaver (the owners of the Jacksonville Jaguars), i'm praying to the football gods that Johnny Football falls to the Jags in the upcoming NFL draft. The Jaguars are slated to pick third, and likely only have to worry about the Texans because the Rams already have their quarterback of the future. All football and personnel decisions aside, the Jags need Johnny Manziel in order to increase the monetary value of their organization.

According to a report issued by Forbes at the beginning of the 2013 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were next to last in overall team value. Their recent on-field performance has done nothing to help their cause. Over the past few seasons the Jags have been fully enrolled at St. Ruggles University. 

This porous performance has led to a decrease in the number of fans willing to pay for tickets to watch their team. Last season Jacksonville ranked in the bottom five for attendance. This costs the team some serious cash flow as ticket sales comprise the number one revenue source for NFL teams. Manziel could help drastically alleviate this issue because at the very least he'll at least pack the stands for whatever team he plays for.
According to the site quoted above, the next most important source of revenue comes from merchandising. You need not look any further than the most recent collegiate mega-star turned NFL players to see why J. Football would bring home the bacon. Tim Tebow blew up as he led the Denver Broncos to a playoff victory in his second season, after sitting his first year. But before he blew up during Tebowmania, before he even played a down of NFL football, Tim Tebow had the highest selling jersey in all of the league. It's almost a certainty that Johnny Manziel's jersey would achieve similar levels of success.

Last season the Jaguars did not have a single player in the top 25 NFL jerseys sold. Compare that to the Cowboys, who had four players make the list. Referring back to the the list published by Pellegrino and Associates, third on the list of important factors for creating revenue in NFL is advertising. Jacksonville's small media market does them no favors in generating ad revenue for their team, but neither does the fact that they haven't had a marquee player in years. 

The marketing department down there would salivate over all the promotional strategies and potential endorsements that would be able to engage people across the 50 states. Johnny Manziel could bring the Jaguars national attention for something other than their awful on-field performance over the past few seasons. You already know, that from day one of training camp, multiple national media outlets would arrive on scene in Florida.

Of course, from a purely football standpoint, drafting Johnny Manziel appears to be anything but the slam dunk it is from a business point of view. For starters, many scouts have their trepidations as to whether Manziel can develop into the franchise caliber qb an organization expects from a top three pick. 

Then comes the issue of the excessive attention J. Football would get compared to his teammates, aka the Tebow/Manning/Brady effect. This can rub many of them the wrong way and lead to friction in the locker room. So from this perspective, maybe another pick would serve the Jaguars best. But if the goal of their owners is to make money, than Johnny Manziel is what they need.

The NFL Combine - Overhyped?

Every year, scouts from every NFL team line up in Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine in hopes of adding the missing pieces to their Super Bowl aspirations. As the nation's top college players display their abilities in a series of workouts, many of these talent evaluators ultimately weigh the results of 40-yard dash times amongst other measurable far more than consistent on-field performance.

Over the years we have seen plenty of college phenoms drop in the Draft due to poor Combine showings, and we've seen the stock of great athletes rather than football players rise as well. Below are a few classic examples of busts who were over-drafted as a result of their physical skill-set and Combine performances:

JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders 2007 

Quite possibly the worst pick in NFL Draft history. Al Davis made the selection primarily due to Russell's tremendous arm strength and size, which were displayed at that year's Combine. However, the former LSU quarterback burned out after playing just three seasons, compiling an exceptional 7-18 record in Oakland; he was later arrested for possession of the ever-so popular "purple drank" and tipped the scale at a whopping 320 pounds. Russell may have been able to throw a football 65 yards on his knees, but he was far from the "great player" Al Davis claimed he was when firing Lane Kiffin.

Darius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders 2009 

Would you look at this? Another Al Davis-selected player! I've listed the career statistics of three college football wide receivers below - take a wild guess which one was selected as the top wideout, going seventh overall:

Player A - 1958 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns (3 season)
Player B - 3127 receiving yards, 41 touchdowns (2 seasons)
Player C - 2315 receiving yards, 22 touchdowns (2 seasons)

Player A is Heyward-Bey, who never eclipsed 800 yards or 6 touchdowns in any season as a wideout at the University of Maryland, yet he ran a sub-4.3 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine. Player B is Michael Crabtree, and Player C is Jeremy Maclin, both of whom have enjoyed successful careers thus far while Heyward-Bey may not even have a job next season.

Vernon Gholston, New York Jets 2008 

The physical freak was selected as the sixth overall pick in the Draft in large part due to his sheer strength displayed at the Combine. Gholston tied for the highest bench press score with 37 reps at 225 pounds, yet he probably couldn't lift an NFL kicker if he tried. After three seasons with Gang Green, Gholston finished with a grand total of 0 sacks.

As Keyshawn Johnson said, "It's not how fast a player is going forward, it's how fast they can stop, change direction, and create space." Teams need to stop worrying about 40-yard dash times because in a game, how often will a player actually run in a straight-line for 40 yards? Rather, exectuives should closely monitor each individual's collegiate overall performances against top-flight competition prior to making their selections. As Jerry Rice and his 4.71 40-yard dash in 1985 can attest, Combine performances often don't mean a thing.

The Weekly Rant: MLB, Outsourcing, and the Indy Leagues as Temp Agencies

Among the many trends in baseball's long history, perhaps none is lamented so much as the disappearance of independent minor leagues. By the middle of the last century, all of the nation's minor league's became either subservient to major league teams, or defunct.

By the mid-1990s, unaffiliated leagues began to reemerge. While many clubs and leagues have sprung up one season, only to fold the next, several leagues have found a bit of stability as the "Indy Ball" renaissance enters its third decade.  It would be a stretch to say that independent baseball is thriving, but it is certainly existing. Total attendance for independent baseball topped 7 MM last season and at one point, 32 former Indy Ball Players were on 40 man rosters.  It's undeniable that Indy Ball is having an impact on the baseball world.

The most successful leagues have been able to carve out a niche as a sort of caste system has developed outside of organized ball. Atlantic League teams often carry multiple former major league players and many other high-minor veterans. While the league has entered the mainstream baseball discussion for its publicity stunts (i.e. Roger Clemens), over 600 former Atlantic League players have been signed by MLB organizations.  It is widely-believed that the Atlantic League has the highest quality of play in Indy Ball, possibly falling somewhere between AA and AAA leagues in the affiliated ladder.

The American Association has a lower quality of play, but more talented young players.  The American Association has received national attention as an alternative for unsigned draft picks, such as Tanner Scheppers and Aaron Crow.  The Frontier League might be even a little lower in terms of quality play, with league rules placing age and experience restrictions on team rosters.   But this has made the Frontier League a haven for raw or under-scouted amateur players.

The development of unaffiliated baseball could be a response to the labor market for players.  There could be a larger raw amount of players capable of playing at level suitable for entertainment.  Or perhaps the growth in the consumer market for sports and entertainment is behind change.  Whatever the reason, MLB clubs now scout independent leagues coast to coast looking for talent.

On a whole, Major League clubs do a remarkable job at selecting and retaining the players with the highest probability of contributing in the major leagues.  But when a few players slip through the cracks, they are likely to end up on an independent team's roster.  This allows for a  MLB clubs to get a second chance on a great number of players.

Instead of adding an additional minor league affiliate, MLB teams can use the lower-level Indy Leagues to identify talent that might have been missed in the draft.  Essentially, teams find it more viable to have some of this player identification take place externally. This is an obvious example of how teams can use Indy Leagues for functions that alternatively could be performed internally.

Another area where this could be occurring is in the high-minors.  Teams would like to devote most of their AA and AAA plate appearances and innings to prospects.  But all teams must also find a way to store several waves of depth options in the upper levels. And over the course of the season, between injuries and call-ups, sometimes players are needed just to fill out rosters.

So instead of having to carry every player a team might need on opening day rosters, teams can pick and choose depth options and roster fillers from the Atlantic League.  Not only does this save roster spots, but it also offers great flexibility and decreases costs.  The Atlantic League basically serves as temp agency (with a low cost to purchase contracts, about $4,000).

This can be especially valuable when dealing with longshots or reclamation projects such as Dontrelle Willis or Tracy McGrady.  Instead of using up valuable minor league innings and roster spots on these types of players, the teams can wait and see how they perform before making a commitment. The worst case scenario, if the player performed well, would be small-scale bidding war with other interested MLB clubs.

The return of independent minor league baseball has been celebrated among baseball fans.  MLB teams are able to take advantage of their existence to outsource specific functions that would be less viable to perform internally.  In this sense, Major League Baseball is acting in line with labor market trends in many other industries.

Blogger Roundtable: NHL Trade Deadline Analysis

The 2014 NHL trade deadline was one to remember. Wednesday provided non-stop trade action that had fans of every team on the edge of their seats right up until the 3pm deadline.Trades are an exciting facet of major league sports and this deadline certainly did not lack excitement. Big names were on the move along with role players and we even saw a captain for captain deal as every team attempted to better position themself for the playoff race down the stretch.

We asked our bloggers for their reactions to the deadline's stories. Here's what they had to say.

Stephen Dreznick, Featured Blogger- Ryan Callahan for Martin St. Louis

The best trade was the one between the Rangers and the Lightning, in which the Rangers traded away their captain, Ryan Callahan, and received Martin St. Louis. This trade was very surprising, as you don't typically see a team trade away their captain. However, St. Louis was angry at Lightning General Manager Steve Yzerman, because he didn't select St. Louis to the original Canada team in the Olympics - this anger boiled over and led to the eventual trade.

Ben Cantor, Assistant Editor- Marian Gaborik to Los Angeles Kings

Very strange to see Marian Gaborik moved in two straight years at the trade deadline. It is peculiar that two consecutive teams had trouble fitting a three-time All-Star into their long term plans.

Matthew Hakimian, Featured Blogger- Ryan Miller to St. Louis Blues

Coming off the heels of the Sochi Winter Olympics, some major stars were moved at the NHL trade deadline. I would have to say the Blues made the biggest splash by acquiring longtime Buffalo Sabers goalie Ryan Miller. Although it had to give up a ton to get the American, St. Louis definitely positioned itself well to compete with the Anaheim Ducks and the Chicago Blackhawks in the Western Conference.

Max Fogle, Editor-in-Chief, Thomas Vanek to Montreal Canadians

I really like this trade. Mostly because I really like Thomas Vanek. I know the Isles are sort of moving on from 2013, but their ROI on Vanek was very low.  He was my favorite rental player on the market, and he makes the Habs a lot better.  To give up nothing off the NHL roster for a top line forward was very impressive.


Be sure to comment below to let us know your opinion.

Alumni Spotlight: Rivalry Wear Co-Founder Jorge Lee '07

Recently, we highlighted Rivalry Wear, an emerging sports apparel vendor. In case you missed it, the company was founded by two Cornell Alumni, Dan Hershberg '06 and Jorge Lee '07. We were able to hear from Jorge about Rivalry Wear, Cornell, his other business endeavors, and much more.

1. Could you tell us a little about your background, including your time at Cornell?

I am originally from Mill Valley, California, which is a suburb about 10 minutes outside of San Francisco. I went into Cornell with the intention of eventually pursuing a graduate degree in clinical psychology, but fell in love with entrepreneurship during my senior year. Outside of academics I played club soccer for Mundial for four years, frequented many hockey games, thought nothing beat a CTB pitcher on a sunny day, and remember several 3am runs to Shortstop for a double Sui.

2. What was your path from Cornell to your current endeavors, particularly Rivalry Wear?

During my senior year at Cornell I decided I wanted to start a business after graduation and spent the months following graduation working on a business plan. I launched my first business in March of 2008, and after growing the business for three years, decided to pursue an MBA to round out my business knowledge.

While completing an MBA at Georgetown I continued to run my business remotely, and returned to California in 2012 to grow my business further. Early last year I reached out to Dan to see if he would be interested in establishing a PhillyPhaithful-type business in San Francisco, and after several calls back and forth, Rivalry Wear was born.

3. Why Rivalry Wear? What compelled you to get into the sports apparel industry, and why was this the model you chose?

Initially I reached out to Dan because in early 2013 San Francisco teams had been doing very well, and I thought it would be a great opportunity for PhillyPhaithful to enter a new market. However, after several discussions it became clear the strategy should be to launch nationally all at once.

I was not looking to get into sports apparel, per se; I was looking for a business opportunity that would complement my existing business. At that point in my life I was looking for a business with high growth potential and an endeavor that I would be passionate about. With Rivalry Wear I am able to add value remotely, which was critical because I am currently based in San Francisco. As a lifelong sports fan, working in the sports space is a dream come true.

We built the business model from the ground up to address many of the issues Dan had experienced while running a sports apparel business. With our model we are able to manage inventory risk, focus on relevant content relating to any team/player/sport, and encourage users to share our designs throughout their social networks.

4. Can you tell us a little bit about your other business ventures?

After I had committed to the idea of starting a business after Cornell, I outlined several things I wanted to accomplish: to create a business that helped people, to run the business in San Francisco, and to start the business with minimal upfront investment (I had to pay my way through Cornell and had student loans to pay back). I decided to start a nontoxic housecleaning business because it fulfilled all of these goals.

I taught myself web design, spent 4 months writing a business plan, and learned how to make cleaning solutions from scratch out of things like vinegar, baking soda and club soda. We launched in 2008 and have been responsible for making homes healthier for hundreds of residents of the Bay Area as well as significantly reducing toxins that get released into the environment.

5. How do you balance your time between businesses?

Like any entrepreneur worth his/her salt, in the beginning of my business I had to pay my dues. I spent first months of Marin House Cleaning LLC scrubbing kitchens and vacuuming floors, which is something I do not think many of my Ivy League counterparts were doing at the time. I knew that in order to run a successful business I had to know everything there was to know about the industry, as well as experience what my employees would go through day in and day out.

My goal for the business from the beginning was automation, and after a few months I was able to hire additional employees so I could focus on management of the company. While completing my MBA in Washington DC I was able to practice running a business remotely, so when it was time to shift my focus to Rivalry Wear I was accustomed to working on several projects at once. At this point MHC is largely running itself, and I spend the majority of time on Rivalry Wear-specific projects.

6. Do you have any advice for entrepreneurial students interested in sports?

My best advice would relate to entrepreneurship in general rather than entrepreneurship in the sports space. I think the most common misconception is that your success will depend solely on the idea you have. I would argue execution is much more important than the idea, and sometimes you just need to take an existing business and improve it rather than trying to reinvent the wheel. While I do think you need an idea that will make money, I have seen many excellent ideas ultimately fail because of poor execution.

I would also suggest taking advice from everyone but acting with your own mind. While I was writing my first business plan some people thought it was a great idea while others thought it would not work. People will offer great advice and it’s important to listen, but at the end of the day you have to believe in yourself and decide which direction to take your business in.

My last piece of advice is practice getting comfortable with ambiguity and the unknown. As a business owner you never know what’s going to happen tomorrow, and more often than not you will have to deal with something you have never done before. For instance, one moment I’ll be designing a webpage, and then the next moment I will be creating an Excel table comparing pricing matrixes between different print shops.  

I think in school it is pretty straight forward what will come your way thanks to syllabi and lesson plans, but in entrepreneurship you have to create your own plan and decide what is most important at any particular moment. I think this uncertainty frightens some people, but it is what makes entrepreneurship truly exciting.

7. Could you think of an experience at Cornell that had the largest impact in shaping your professional life?

There was one class that changed my life forever, and it was AEM 1210 - Entrepreneurship Speaker Series. The 1 credit course was simply successful Cornell entrepreneurs speaking about their businesses and the path they took to get there. The class was the first time in my life I was exposed to successful entrepreneurs, as none of my friends or family had ever started a business.  

It during those class sessions that I began to view starting my own business as a legitimate option after graduating Cornell, and by the end of the semester I was convinced I had to try my hand at entrepreneurship. I think it’s a must for any Cornell student interested in entrepreneurship, and I truly believe it was the catalyst for future endeavors in entrepreneurship.

We would like to thank Jorge for taking the time to answer our questions. Be sure to check out the website if you haven't already. Rivalry Wear Company Website

The Weekly Rant: Qualifying Offer Trends

The qualifying offer has been talked about a lot lately.  Everyone has ideas on how to change the QO system so that it is more fair for players or teams or both.  While I think that there is plenty of room for improvement, I wanted to take a look at some data that incorporates the qualifying offer.

If you are nor familiar with the basics of the system, here's a good primer from MLBTR. So far, 23 players have received QO's, and 23 have rejected them. 10 players in 2012, and 13 players in 2013.  The chart below shows all of the the players, along with information related to the team that extended the QO:

Player	Year	Old Team	Payroll	Wins
Michael Bourn	2012	Braves	83.31	94
Nick Swisher	2012	Yankees	197.96	95
Adam Laroche	2012	Nationals	81.34	98
Rafael Soriano	2012	Yankees	197.96	95
BJ Upton	2012	Rays	64.17	90
Kyle Lohse	2012	Cardinal	110.30	88
Josh Hamilton	2012	Rangers	120.51	93
David Ortiz	2012	Red Sox	173.19	69
Hiroki Kuroda	2012	Yankees	197.96	95
Curtis Granderson	2013	Yankees	230.84	85
Robinson Cano	2013	Yankees	230.84	85
Ubaldo Jimenez	2013	Indians	80.26	92
Nelson Cruz	2013	Rangers	129.07	91
Shin-Soo Choo	2013	Reds	107.98	90
Mike Napoli	2013	Red Sox	151.15	97
Brain McCann	2013	Braves	92.25	96
Carlos Beltran	2013	Cardinals	117.69	97
Jacoby Ellsbury	2013	Red Sox	151.15	97
Hiroki Kuroda	2013	Yankees	230.84	85
Kendrys Morales	2013	Mariners	81.53	71
Ervin Santana	2013	Royals	84.07	86
Stephen Drew	2013	Red Sox	151.15	97
Averages			125.20	90.82

*Payroll Data from USA Today

As you can see, teams that extended qualifying offers were pretty well off financially and competitively. The average payroll of the teams for each of the free agents is over $125 MM (the Major League average team was spending around $105 MM per seasons during these years). The teams extending the QO averaged nearly 91 wins the previous season.

These numbers are a little higher than I would have thought.  We would expect good/higher-spending teams to have more players likely to receive large contracts than the rest of the league. But this data shows that bad/lower-spending teams have hardly participated in the process.  The only losing teams to make QO's are the under-performing 2012 Bobby V Red Sox (David Ortiz) and last year's Mariners (with the slightly anomalous Kendrys Morales).

Overall, better performing/higher-spending clubs are more likely to extend a qualifying offer, and are therefore more likely to receive benefits from the system.  These teams either receive draft pick compensation or increased leverage in retaining the player. If the qualifying offer was meant to benefit small market teams and competitive balance, there is no evidence that it does so.

Now let's look at the data on teams who have signed players under this system.  In this table, I have used the payroll and win amounts from the previous season for each team.  (For example, the Indians signed both Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn after each had turned down a qualifying offer following the 2012 season.  Therefore, the Indians' 2012 Payroll and Wins totals are listed.)

Player	Year	New Team	Payroll	Wins
Michael Bourn	2012	Indians	78.43	68
Nick Swisher	2012	Indians	78.43	68
**Adam Laroche	2012	Nationals	81.34	98
Rafael Soriano	2012	Nationals	81.34	98
BJ Upton	2012	Braves	83.31	94
Kyle Lohse	2012	Brewers	97.65	83
Josh Hamilton	2012	Angels	154.49	89
**David Ortiz	2012	Red Sox	173.19	69
**Hiroki Kuroda	2012	Yankees	197.96	95
Curtis Granderson	2013	Mets	75.40	74
Robinson Cano	2013	Mariners	81.53	71
Ubaldo Jimenez	2013	Orioles	99.83	85
Nelson Cruz	2013	Orioles	99.83	85
Shin-Soo Choo	2013	Rangers	129.07	91
**Mike Napoli	2013	Red Sox	151.15	97
Brain McCann	2013	Yankees	230.84	85
Carlos Beltran	2013	Yankees	230.84	85
Jacoby Ellsbury	2013	Yankees	230.84	85
**Hiroki Kuroda	2013	Yankees	230.84	85
*Kendrys Morales	2013	None
*Ervin Santana	2013	None
*Stephen Drew	2013	None
Averages			136.12	84.47

*Remains unsigned
**Re-signed with original team

From the chart, 5 players resigned with their former teams, while 3 players from this class remain unsigned.  But we still have some interesting numbers.  The average payroll of the teams signing these players was in fact higher than the teams that extended the offer.  However, these clubs had won 6 fewer games on average than the previously mentioned teams.  Overall, we still find that most of the teams who have participated in the the QO system are good/higher-spending.

Some have theorized that free agency hurts competitive balance, while previous studies have shown increased parity in the free agency era. This data does suggest that in the short term, premium free agents have moved from good teams to less good teams.  But in the long term, the flow of draft picks in the opposite direction could counteract or overwhelm the positive contributions of free agents. And again, it is mostly higher-performing, higher-spending teams that are involved in the first place.

It will be interesting to see how the qualifying offer will play out in future seasons.  There really isn't enough data to draw any solid conclusions.  But at the moment, it is hard to imagine the qualifying offer having any positive effect on competitive balance.  It seems that as  many commentators have stated, that the QO exists only as way to suppress free agent salaries.