NFL Statistical Over- and Underachievers Through Week 8
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| Will Cam Newton and the Panthers rise to the top of the NFL or compete at .500? |
Pythagorean was a Greek mathematician who died over 2500 years ago. Most people know him for his theorem that A2 + B2 = C2. In the sports world, Bill James transformed this theorem as a way to predict win expectancies in baseball. Daryl Morey took Bill James’s theory and moved it to basketball and then recently it became a way to also predict wins in the NFL. As the NFL hits the mid-season it is now time to see what teams are overachieving or underachieving based on football’s Pythagorean theorem. The theorem is:
Points For2.37 / (Points For2.37 + Points Against2.37)
The formula produces an expected winning percentage. Today I am going to look at through week 8 of the NFL season which teams are doing better or worse than their expected number of wins so far this season. I did not include the Chiefs as an overachiever or the Jaguars or Buccaneers as underachievers as they are on pace to go 16-0 and 0-16 respectively and this system projects wins and loses for every team.
Underachievers:
Carolina Panthers: Current Record (4-3). The Panthers have won 57.1% of their games so far during the 2013 season, over the course of the season that projects to 9.14 wins. Yet according to their Pythagorean expectation the team should be on pace to win 12.7 games. The Carolina Panthers, based on Pythagorean expectation, are one of the best teams in the NFL this year. The projection is so optimistic because the Panthers are winning their games by an average of 24 points per game while they are losing games by an average of just 7.33. That’s an absolutely huge difference. One of the largest in the league, which is why the Panthers are expected to be much better than they are.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Current Record (2-5). The Steelers are currently on pace to win 4.57 games if they continue their 2-5 pace over the course of the season. The Steelers Pythagorean expectation is 6.12 wins. That means the Steelers are under performing by nearly 1.5 wins so far through 7 games. While this does not show the degree that the Steelers have been disappointing to many people, the Steelers are still not winning as many games as they should be. The Steelers have lost their 5 games by average of 8.8 points per game. Their average win has been 6.5 points which is why you would expect to see the Steelers to be on pace to win more games than they have.
Atlanta Falcons: Current Record (2-5). The Falcons just like the Steelers with the same record are on pace to win just 4.57 games this year. Yet the Falcons based on their points scored and given up should be on pace to win 7.03 games this year. That’s a difference nearly 2.5 wins over the course of the season and already over a win through 7 games. The Falcons were for many a Super Bowl pick this year; yet, not only have injuries hurt them, but also some bad luck. The Falcons based on the points scored and given up should be a better team this year. Some of this has to do with the fact that in their wins the Falcons have won by an average of 7.5 points, yet in their loses the Falcons have been outscored by of an average of just 6.6.
Overachievers:
Detroit Lions Current Record (5-3) The Lions are currently on pace to go 10-6. Yet their Pythagorean theorem for football has the team winning just 8.91 games. In the competitive NFC, the difference between making and missing the playoffs very easily could be the difference between going 9-7 or 10-6 especially after last year when even 10-6 could not make the postseason. This expectation is partially influenced by the Lions winning their 5 games by an average of 8 points a game while their 3 loses have been by an average of 7 points. The Lions will need to continue to hope to overachieve if they want to make the postseason this year.
New York Jets Current Record (4-4) The Jets are shocking many people by being .500 through the midway point of the season. Most people saw the Jets as a team closer to competing for the first pick than a playoff spot. To those people it may not be a sursprise that the Jets happen to be the NFL’s greatest overachiever through 8 weeks. Based on their current points for and against the Jets are team that should win 28.5% of their games which would be the Jets at approximately 2-6 through 8 games. The Jets are currently on pace to finish 8-8, yet have a Pythagorean win expectation of just 4.55 wins for the season. The Jets are the one of two teams who are .500 or better and have a negative point differential. The Jets average win has been by just 3.25 points while their loses have been by average of 20.25 point. The Jets have been one of the luckiest teams winning close games and getting blown out in loses.
Denver Broncos Current Record (7-1) The Broncos as an overachiever seemed extremely surprising considering the Broncos have averaged 42.88 points per game and have won their average game by 18.7 points while their sole loss was by just 6 points. The Broncos current pace has them finishing at 14-2 being the 10th team in the last 11 years to finish 14-2 or better. The Pythagorean theorem thinks that might be a bit ambitious having them nearly 2 wins worse with a projection of just 11.9 wins for the season or less than 6 wins so far this year. Even a small regression by the Broncos in the second half the season will still leave the Broncos battling for the AFC West title as well as one of the top seeds in the AFC.
Like any prediction model, the Pythagorean expectation for the NFL is not perfect. But it will be interesting to see how if teams underachieving at the half way point play better and will overachieving teams fall apart in the second half of the season. Will the Falcons and Steelers begin to play closer to some of the pre-season hype and move towards respectability? Will the Jets and Lions continue to compete for a post-season birth or regress back towards the middle and bottom of their conferences?
The team that to me is most interesting is the Carolina Panthers. Currently the Panthers are 2 games behind the Saints in the NFC South, yet they are expected to be better than the Saints by .5 game based on the Pythagorean expectation. Will the Panthers win the South and compete for a bye in the NFC or simply fight to make the post season?
Underachievers:
Carolina Panthers: Current Record (4-3). The Panthers have won 57.1% of their games so far during the 2013 season, over the course of the season that projects to 9.14 wins. Yet according to their Pythagorean expectation the team should be on pace to win 12.7 games. The Carolina Panthers, based on Pythagorean expectation, are one of the best teams in the NFL this year. The projection is so optimistic because the Panthers are winning their games by an average of 24 points per game while they are losing games by an average of just 7.33. That’s an absolutely huge difference. One of the largest in the league, which is why the Panthers are expected to be much better than they are.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Current Record (2-5). The Steelers are currently on pace to win 4.57 games if they continue their 2-5 pace over the course of the season. The Steelers Pythagorean expectation is 6.12 wins. That means the Steelers are under performing by nearly 1.5 wins so far through 7 games. While this does not show the degree that the Steelers have been disappointing to many people, the Steelers are still not winning as many games as they should be. The Steelers have lost their 5 games by average of 8.8 points per game. Their average win has been 6.5 points which is why you would expect to see the Steelers to be on pace to win more games than they have.
Atlanta Falcons: Current Record (2-5). The Falcons just like the Steelers with the same record are on pace to win just 4.57 games this year. Yet the Falcons based on their points scored and given up should be on pace to win 7.03 games this year. That’s a difference nearly 2.5 wins over the course of the season and already over a win through 7 games. The Falcons were for many a Super Bowl pick this year; yet, not only have injuries hurt them, but also some bad luck. The Falcons based on the points scored and given up should be a better team this year. Some of this has to do with the fact that in their wins the Falcons have won by an average of 7.5 points, yet in their loses the Falcons have been outscored by of an average of just 6.6.
Overachievers:
Detroit Lions Current Record (5-3) The Lions are currently on pace to go 10-6. Yet their Pythagorean theorem for football has the team winning just 8.91 games. In the competitive NFC, the difference between making and missing the playoffs very easily could be the difference between going 9-7 or 10-6 especially after last year when even 10-6 could not make the postseason. This expectation is partially influenced by the Lions winning their 5 games by an average of 8 points a game while their 3 loses have been by an average of 7 points. The Lions will need to continue to hope to overachieve if they want to make the postseason this year.
New York Jets Current Record (4-4) The Jets are shocking many people by being .500 through the midway point of the season. Most people saw the Jets as a team closer to competing for the first pick than a playoff spot. To those people it may not be a sursprise that the Jets happen to be the NFL’s greatest overachiever through 8 weeks. Based on their current points for and against the Jets are team that should win 28.5% of their games which would be the Jets at approximately 2-6 through 8 games. The Jets are currently on pace to finish 8-8, yet have a Pythagorean win expectation of just 4.55 wins for the season. The Jets are the one of two teams who are .500 or better and have a negative point differential. The Jets average win has been by just 3.25 points while their loses have been by average of 20.25 point. The Jets have been one of the luckiest teams winning close games and getting blown out in loses.
Denver Broncos Current Record (7-1) The Broncos as an overachiever seemed extremely surprising considering the Broncos have averaged 42.88 points per game and have won their average game by 18.7 points while their sole loss was by just 6 points. The Broncos current pace has them finishing at 14-2 being the 10th team in the last 11 years to finish 14-2 or better. The Pythagorean theorem thinks that might be a bit ambitious having them nearly 2 wins worse with a projection of just 11.9 wins for the season or less than 6 wins so far this year. Even a small regression by the Broncos in the second half the season will still leave the Broncos battling for the AFC West title as well as one of the top seeds in the AFC.
Like any prediction model, the Pythagorean expectation for the NFL is not perfect. But it will be interesting to see how if teams underachieving at the half way point play better and will overachieving teams fall apart in the second half of the season. Will the Falcons and Steelers begin to play closer to some of the pre-season hype and move towards respectability? Will the Jets and Lions continue to compete for a post-season birth or regress back towards the middle and bottom of their conferences?
The team that to me is most interesting is the Carolina Panthers. Currently the Panthers are 2 games behind the Saints in the NFC South, yet they are expected to be better than the Saints by .5 game based on the Pythagorean expectation. Will the Panthers win the South and compete for a bye in the NFC or simply fight to make the post season?
Labels: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, New York Jets, NFL, Original Content, Pittsburgh Steelers, SRosen, statsandfigures
posted by Geoff Rosenthal @ 8:00 AM
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