Calling the 2013 MLB Most Valuable Player Award Races (Part 2- Predictions)

This is Part II in a two part series, predicting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards.  Check out the author's process by reading Part I.

Using the process outlined in Part I, I've come up with my own predictions for how the Baseball Writer's Association of America will vote for this season's American and National League Most Valuable Player Awards.

I began with a long list that included essentially any player who finished near the top of the leader board in WAR, traditional power stats, on-base plus slugging, or average. After plugging the numbers into the system, it was easy to eliminate a good portion of the list. In fact, I was very pleased with who the template told me were the top dogs. This is because I think that most people have a fairly good idea about what will happen with the AL race. The NL will be a tougher call and so this was a good test for the point system. Here were the top 4 finishers in the AL:

Player	WAR	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG	Playoff	Exc/Exp	Def	Total
Cabrera	6	1	3	3		5	5			23
Donaldson	8	o	o			o	5	2.5	5	20.5
Trout	10	1.25	o	o	o	3			5	19.25
Davis	2	0.75	3.75	3.75				2.5		12.75

I'm on board with these guys finishing in the top 4. However, I think I need to take a few other factors into account and reassess the order after Cabrera. Now, of importance are the categories marked "o". "o" is to show that a player finished near the top five in the category, but was not awarded points as he was just outside. My own discretionary points could definitely be a bit generous to Donaldson, and I believe that the fact that Trout finished highly, but not within the top five, of RBI, HR, and SB warrants him being moved ahead of Donaldson in the voting. I think Trout is recognized as the best all around player in baseball and will finish second to Cabrera again this year.

Picking between Davis and Donaldson for 3rd is tougher. If I were to remove Donaldson's Exc/Exp points (extra points I awarded for bursting on the scene and having a "clutch" narrative surrounding him) and give Davis a boost of say 5, for leading in RBIs and HRs, plus blasting through the 50 hr threshold, his and Donaldson's point totals would fall much closer. Last year's results are interesting to consider: In 2012, Josh Hamilton, with excellent power numbers and high strikeout totals akin to Davis in 2013, finished 5th in the voting behind the solid-across-the-board seasons of Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltre.

Cano and Beltre are not bad comparisons for Donaldson this year. However, Donaldson's power numbers are slightly below where Cano and Beltre were last year. Also, Davis crushed the competition with 53 home runs this season- 10 more than Hamilton hit last year when he finished second in the category. But, Davis' high strikeout totals and the fact that his Orioles missed the playoffs will be negatives to the voters. In the end, I think the small market in Oakland hurts Donaldson's chances. Also, I think he might be just a bit too far below the 30 home run and 100 RBI thresholds in the voters' eyes. I'm going to give Davis the nod.

Finally, I need to round out my top five. For fifth, I'm going to check out the numbers of Max Scherzer, who most expect to win the AL Cy Young in 2013. Scherzer, after leading the league in Wins, base runners per inning pitched, and finishing in the top five of most other categories, grades out well with my system. While I think my system is flawed in the way it incorporates pitchers, Scherzer's points put him far enough ahead of the remaining candidates that I'm going to trust the numbers. Plus, given the love that Detroit players and pitchers have gotten in the MVP voting in recent years, I like his chances of finishing in the top 5. Bias for and against certain cities seems to be a real thing. Verlander won the award in 2011, and finished 8th in 2012. I think Scherzer's season fits in somewhere between those two.

AL MVP Prediction: Miguel Cabrera

2nd-5th (respectively): Mike Trout, Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Max Scherzer

Onto the NL. This, as I mentioned, seems to be a much closer race. I followed the same approach as with the AL race, including the pitcher assessment. In the end I was left with this result:

Player	WAR	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG	Playoff	Ex	Def	Total
Kershaw	10	0.75	3	3.75	1.25	5	5			28.75
McCutchen	10	o	o		0.25	o	2.5		5	17.75
Goldschmidt	4	0.75	3.75	3.75		o		5		17.25
Molina	o					2	5	5	5	17
Carpenter	6	1.25				o	5		2.5	14.75
		W	IP	K	WHIP	ERA

Very interesting. You'll notice that the pitching categories show up on the bottom. They are weighted identically to their offensive counterpart. At this point I've morphed the 'Ex' category into an "appropriate intangible bonuses" column. For leading the NL in HRs and RBIs, plus the fact that he is perceived as an above average runner, I awarded Paul Goldschmidt the same bonus that I gave Davis in the AL. Yadier Molina gets a large bonus for the publicity that he receives as the best defensive catcher in baseball.

Despite the fact that I don't think the pitching stats fit into the system entirely accurately, I do like the results. Clayton Kershaw's dominance in nearly every pitching category of MVP-voting-value this season is not far off of Verlander's 2011 campaign. His final points are probably a bit bloated, but the idea of the system is to merely offer a framework from which to work of off. I like McCutchen to finish as the highest non-pitcher (or to win the award outright). He had an excellent season across the board, led the Pittsburgh renaissance, and plays a premium defensive position. Goldschmidt is hurt by the fact that his team missed the playoffs, but his offensive numbers are superb. I think he beats out Yadi.

Molina's numbers are comparable, but slightly below last season, when he finished 4th in the voting. As far as the two Cardinals go, I would be very surprised if Molina was deemed less valuable than any of his teammates. Hence, he beats out Carpenter. Carlos Gomez had an excellent year in Milwaukee and just missed the top 5 in my system. He could easily grab a number of MVP points and sneak into the top five, or better. But, for my prediction, I'm going to stick with these results. Kershaw is a risky choice for MVP, but I like his chances.   

NL MVP Prediction: Clayton Kershaw

2nd-5th (Respectively): Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter

I'll revisit my predictions in a few weeks. Now it's in the hands of the BBWAA.

This is Part II in a two part series, predicting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards.  Check out the author's process by reading Part I.