Revisiting 2013 MLB Most Valuable Player Award Predictions

A few weeks ago, I attempted to predict how the BBWAA would vote for this season's American and National League MVP awards. The results came out earlier this week, so let's take a look at how I did.

Here are the results, followed by my prediction:

2013 AL MVP Top-5 (Actual)
Miguel Cabrera
Mike Trout
Chris Davis
Josh Donaldson
Robinson Cano

Me:
Miguel Cabrera
Mike Trout
Chris Davis
Josh Donaldson
Max Scherzer

As you can see, I did a fairly good job with the American League. My top 4 was spot on. However, clearly I overestimated what the writers would think of Max Scherzer's season. As I mentioned, I thought this was a fairly straightforward call, and so I'm happy I came close.

I personally, am not a fan of pitchers being included in the MVP race for a number of reasons. Most importantly, they have their own award already. Secondly, the way that the writers have incorporated pitchers into the MVP race is very inconsistent.

These are far from my biggest complaints with the BBWAA and how they vote on awards and the Hall of Fame. However, filing a lodge of complaints against the BBWAA could easily take up many pages, so I will move on.

2013 NL MVP Top-5 (actual)
Andrew McCutchen
Paul Goldschmidt
Yadier Molina
Matt Carpenter
Freddie Freeman

Me:
Clayton Kershaw
Andrew McCutchen
Paul Goldschmidt
Yadier Molina
Matt Carpenter

So, I botched this one by predicting that the writers would give it to Kershaw. But, my system did nail the order of the everyday players. So, I clearly overestimated the value that the writers were putting in the top pitchers in each league. To be honest, I think the NL outcome is kind of bizarre. I have no problem with McCutchen winning, as he had a fantastic season. And as I mentioned before, I don't believe pitchers should be considered for MVP. But that I'm still scratching my head over Kershaw finishing 7th in the voting.

Two years ago, the writers awarded Verlander the AL MVP by a wide margin, after a dominant season in which he ran away with the Cy Young. Kershaw won the Cy a few days ago, receiving 29 of the 30 first place votes. So, obviously the BBWAA recognized his outstanding season. His 1.83 ERA was the lowest by a major leaguer since 1985 (Doc Gooden). I could go more deeply into the numbers, but it doesn't really matter. Verlander easily winning the 2011 AL MVP, and Kershaw not even sniffing the top-5 in voting in 2013 doesn't add up.

Perhaps this is a sign that the writers are moving away from giving the MVP to pitchers. Anyhow, this was a fun exercise, and while I don't believe my system was anything special, the framework did a fairly good job with this season.

Blogger Roundtable: The Yankees' $189MM Question

The New York Yankees enter unchartered territory for a team used to two things: winning and spending money.  The front office has stated its desire to reduce spending next season to below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $189MM.  Doing so would not only alleviate the 50% tax on spending over the limit this season, but would reduce the rate to 17% in the next season they choose to spend big. 

But it will not be easy.  The team spent over $203MM last season and failed to make the playoffs for the second time in decades.  The team has some big holes to fill, along with a number of free agents who would demand big money to stay around.  And though internally the Yankees may wish to cut payroll, their fan base's expectations of October baseball are doubtful to change. Even GM Brian Cashman noted that $189MM "is a goal, not a mandate."

A possible attempt to slash CBT relevant spending appears to have failed in Derek Jeter's new $12MM contract.  It was thought that though it is an increase over the Captain's player option, that it would save on average annual value.  But though some complicated rules in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the deal will cost the Yankees more in both real dollars as well as those which count for CBT purposes.

But there are reasons to be optimistic. With many expensive players coming off the books, the Bombers will have some room to work with.  If Alex Rodriguez misses all or most of next season due to suspension, upwards of $25MM could be saved.  Additionally, key target Masahiro Tanaka will be expensive, but his massive posting fee will not hurt the Yankees attempt to slide under $189MM.  It will take some creativity and maybe some restraint, but it's entirely possible the club makes its stated goal.

So here's the question for our esteemed panel:

Will the Yankees spend less than the $189MM competitive balance tax threshold in 2014?

Jesse Sherman (Director of Operations, SBS)- No

The 2013 Yankees payroll was well over $200MM- and I don't see it decreasing drastically below the threshold. The Yankees have three players making over $23MM for 2014 (Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia), and that's not including Robinson Cano who will command the highest salary on the team (unless the sides can agree to a back-loaded contract). The aged Jeter just received a pay increase, and the Yankees will have to bolster their pitching staff by spending some money this offseason. But with over 98MM already being committed to just 7 players, the only chance they have of getting below the threshold is by not resigning Cano or Granderson. But even removing Granderson's contract and finding a steady replacement won't do the trick.

Adam Kirsch (Co-president, SBS)- No

I don't think the Yankees will make it under the tax threshold next year.  A great deal depends on how they choose to address key free agents – most notably Robinson Cano's call for a monster contract. A few arbitration-eligible players, such as Brett Gardner and David Robertson, will also likely cut into the Yankees' thrifty efforts. After missing the playoffs this year, I think that Cashman and Co. will not be afraid to spend to keep their key pieces in the Bronx.  
 

Kevin Cole (Featured Blogger)- Yes

 

It seems like the Yankees are fairly determined to get under the $189MM number. The club's behavior over the last couple of seasons would be hard to explain should they abandon this attempt to get under the Competitive Balance Tax Threshold, and it does seem like they are poised to meet their goal of lowering payroll to this level. The Yanks have a lot of cash coming off of the books this offseason from the likes of Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Kevin Youkillis, and others. Salary write-ups that I've seen give the Yanks around $70 million to play with this off-season in filling about 18 big league roster spots.

 

The Yanks obviously plan on giving a large portion of that amount to Robinson Cano. But, they could have an extra $27MM to play with, should A-Rod's suspension be upheld. If that happens, A-Rod's spot will need to be filled for 2014, but the team will have some additional freedom in making some free agent signings. Some are speculating that the Yanks are poised for a nice spending spree this off season, possibly for the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and others. We'll see about that, but I believe the team is set to meet the $189MM goal, resign Cano, and perhaps one or two other high profile free agents. Whether or not they field a playoff contender, though, remains to be scene.

 

John Zakour (Featured Blogger)- No

 

I don't believe the Yankees will spend less than $189MM, but I believe it will be close. The fact the Yankees are serious about Cano and Tanaka means they likely won't let a few mil stop them (who would?). There situation is fluid, and may even change depending on A-Rod's punishment. But the fact we're talking about this is noteworthy. It indicates a paradigm shift, and shows the Yankees might actually be (somewhat) responsible with their contracts. The title of the freest spenders in baseball rests safely with the Dodgers.
 

Matthew Hakimian (Featured Blogger)- No

 

Not a chance the Yankees have a payroll under $189 million heading into the 2014 season. Although the team was marred by an obscene amount of injuries throughout the course of the year, GM Brian Cashman will ultimately get his way. Not only does the team desperately need to resign Robinson Cano, but it also has no idea what the future of A-Rod holds. Look for the Bombers to be in the market for the likes of Brian McCann and Japanese product Masahiro Tanaka. Don't we all remember what took place after the Yanks missed the playoffs in '08?

Adam Malz (Featured Blogger)- No

While the Yankees front office has repeatedly stated that their objective is to reduce their payroll to $189 million, I believe they will end up going over that by the end of this offseason. The Yankees are set to embark on an offseason similar to that of 08-09 when they spent $423 million on CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett. This year their targets include Robinson Cano, Carlos Beltran, Brain McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka. They will most likely end up spending over $300 million in contracts to the players that they ultimately sign. After this, it will be a huge financial challenge to get below the $189 million competitive balance tax threshold.
 

Calling the 2013 MLB Most Valuable Player Award Races (Part 2- Predictions)

This is Part II in a two part series, predicting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards.  Check out the author's process by reading Part I.

Using the process outlined in Part I, I've come up with my own predictions for how the Baseball Writer's Association of America will vote for this season's American and National League Most Valuable Player Awards.

I began with a long list that included essentially any player who finished near the top of the leader board in WAR, traditional power stats, on-base plus slugging, or average. After plugging the numbers into the system, it was easy to eliminate a good portion of the list. In fact, I was very pleased with who the template told me were the top dogs. This is because I think that most people have a fairly good idea about what will happen with the AL race. The NL will be a tougher call and so this was a good test for the point system. Here were the top 4 finishers in the AL:

Player	WAR	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG	Playoff	Exc/Exp	Def	Total
Cabrera	6	1	3	3		5	5			23
Donaldson	8	o	o			o	5	2.5	5	20.5
Trout	10	1.25	o	o	o	3			5	19.25
Davis	2	0.75	3.75	3.75				2.5		12.75

I'm on board with these guys finishing in the top 4. However, I think I need to take a few other factors into account and reassess the order after Cabrera. Now, of importance are the categories marked "o". "o" is to show that a player finished near the top five in the category, but was not awarded points as he was just outside. My own discretionary points could definitely be a bit generous to Donaldson, and I believe that the fact that Trout finished highly, but not within the top five, of RBI, HR, and SB warrants him being moved ahead of Donaldson in the voting. I think Trout is recognized as the best all around player in baseball and will finish second to Cabrera again this year.

Picking between Davis and Donaldson for 3rd is tougher. If I were to remove Donaldson's Exc/Exp points (extra points I awarded for bursting on the scene and having a "clutch" narrative surrounding him) and give Davis a boost of say 5, for leading in RBIs and HRs, plus blasting through the 50 hr threshold, his and Donaldson's point totals would fall much closer. Last year's results are interesting to consider: In 2012, Josh Hamilton, with excellent power numbers and high strikeout totals akin to Davis in 2013, finished 5th in the voting behind the solid-across-the-board seasons of Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltre.

Cano and Beltre are not bad comparisons for Donaldson this year. However, Donaldson's power numbers are slightly below where Cano and Beltre were last year. Also, Davis crushed the competition with 53 home runs this season- 10 more than Hamilton hit last year when he finished second in the category. But, Davis' high strikeout totals and the fact that his Orioles missed the playoffs will be negatives to the voters. In the end, I think the small market in Oakland hurts Donaldson's chances. Also, I think he might be just a bit too far below the 30 home run and 100 RBI thresholds in the voters' eyes. I'm going to give Davis the nod.

Finally, I need to round out my top five. For fifth, I'm going to check out the numbers of Max Scherzer, who most expect to win the AL Cy Young in 2013. Scherzer, after leading the league in Wins, base runners per inning pitched, and finishing in the top five of most other categories, grades out well with my system. While I think my system is flawed in the way it incorporates pitchers, Scherzer's points put him far enough ahead of the remaining candidates that I'm going to trust the numbers. Plus, given the love that Detroit players and pitchers have gotten in the MVP voting in recent years, I like his chances of finishing in the top 5. Bias for and against certain cities seems to be a real thing. Verlander won the award in 2011, and finished 8th in 2012. I think Scherzer's season fits in somewhere between those two.

AL MVP Prediction: Miguel Cabrera

2nd-5th (respectively): Mike Trout, Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Max Scherzer

Onto the NL. This, as I mentioned, seems to be a much closer race. I followed the same approach as with the AL race, including the pitcher assessment. In the end I was left with this result:

Player	WAR	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG	Playoff	Ex	Def	Total
Kershaw	10	0.75	3	3.75	1.25	5	5			28.75
McCutchen	10	o	o		0.25	o	2.5		5	17.75
Goldschmidt	4	0.75	3.75	3.75		o		5		17.25
Molina	o					2	5	5	5	17
Carpenter	6	1.25				o	5		2.5	14.75
		W	IP	K	WHIP	ERA

Very interesting. You'll notice that the pitching categories show up on the bottom. They are weighted identically to their offensive counterpart. At this point I've morphed the 'Ex' category into an "appropriate intangible bonuses" column. For leading the NL in HRs and RBIs, plus the fact that he is perceived as an above average runner, I awarded Paul Goldschmidt the same bonus that I gave Davis in the AL. Yadier Molina gets a large bonus for the publicity that he receives as the best defensive catcher in baseball.

Despite the fact that I don't think the pitching stats fit into the system entirely accurately, I do like the results. Clayton Kershaw's dominance in nearly every pitching category of MVP-voting-value this season is not far off of Verlander's 2011 campaign. His final points are probably a bit bloated, but the idea of the system is to merely offer a framework from which to work of off. I like McCutchen to finish as the highest non-pitcher (or to win the award outright). He had an excellent season across the board, led the Pittsburgh renaissance, and plays a premium defensive position. Goldschmidt is hurt by the fact that his team missed the playoffs, but his offensive numbers are superb. I think he beats out Yadi.

Molina's numbers are comparable, but slightly below last season, when he finished 4th in the voting. As far as the two Cardinals go, I would be very surprised if Molina was deemed less valuable than any of his teammates. Hence, he beats out Carpenter. Carlos Gomez had an excellent year in Milwaukee and just missed the top 5 in my system. He could easily grab a number of MVP points and sneak into the top five, or better. But, for my prediction, I'm going to stick with these results. Kershaw is a risky choice for MVP, but I like his chances.   

NL MVP Prediction: Clayton Kershaw

2nd-5th (Respectively): Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter

I'll revisit my predictions in a few weeks. Now it's in the hands of the BBWAA.

This is Part II in a two part series, predicting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards.  Check out the author's process by reading Part I.

Calling the 2013 MLB Most Valuable Player Award Races (Part 1-Process)

This is Part I in a two part series, explaining the writer's process in forecasting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards. Read here for the predictions themselves.

In this post, I'll detail the process I followed in my attempts to predict the 2013 Most Valuable Player awards winners. This was not meant to be an exercise in actually deciding who the deserving recipients are in, but an attempt to guess how the Baseball Writer's Association of America will vote. To do so, I looked back at the last few seasons of American League MVP voting outcomes and attempted to determine what sorts of traits(statistics) the writers are holding in the highest esteem.

Compiling the data is time consuming, and I hoped that I could gain the necessary insight by looking at the most recent years. I was not necessarily attempting to develop a formula to predict the MVP, as that has been tried by others a number of times, with mixed results. However, I did attempt to come up with a sort of weighted value system that would award points for various categories and give me a framework to start my analysis with.

I started looking at past MVP races with three basic areas in mind that I wanted to determine weights for: sabermetric, traditional, and intangible.

Next, as I gained some insight as to what influenced races of the past, I started plugging different weights in to a framework that would assign a value based off of where in a given category a player ranked at the end of the year. After multiple rounds of tweaking, I settled on a point system that did a nice job at reflecting how the writers had voted in recent years. The final stats that I ended up using in the system were: wins above replacement (WAR), runs, runs batted in (RBI), home runs (HR), stolen bases (SB), and batting average (AVG). I also assigned varying degrees of value for the success of a player's team, whether or not he played high quality defense at a premium position, the perception of his base running, and certain accomplishments (like the Triple Crown) that can influence voters.

In assigning weights to each category, I used my own discretion based on observation and whether or not the points system was reflecting the way the actual voting went. For instance, I gave the components of the triple crown a total point value that was just slightly greater than what I gave for WAR. Last year's race showed that the voters value these stats in total, more highly than WAR. Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown and the MVP, while Mike Trout led the league in WAR and finished second. As I applied those values to previous years' MVP races, they seemed to be weighted properly.
This sort of comparison-observation tweaking, over multiple trials, led me to my final point system.

Under the points system, to receive points in a category, a player had to finish in the top five of said category, or qualify (i.e. lead his team to the playoffs, win the Triple Crown). I multiplied the weights of each category by 5, and then awarded points by where a player finished within the top five. For each place below first that a player finished in the category, he lost the original amount. When written out it may sound complex, but it is actually extremely simple. For example:

In 2011, Mike Trout led the league in WAR so he received 10 points (original weight of 2 * 5) in that category. Robinson Cano finished second in WAR so he received 8 points (10 minus the original weight of 2). Miguel Cabrera finished third so he received 6 points (10-2-2=6)... Hopefully this paints the picture.

The intangible weights were added last as I reworked the system to accurately reflect recent years' voting outcomes.

I want to add that this system is far from perfect and that the weights I used were largely determined through my own interpretations. I think that they could definitely be done more accurately, but it would require quite a bit more time. I'll continue to touch on areas this system falls short as I go. In general, I wanted it to give me a rough outline of who expect at the top of the voting this year, and then be able to tweak the results based other factors and observations to arrive at my predictions.

Here's the final template for the point system:

Category	Weight	Total Pts		1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
WAR	2	10		10	8	6	4	2
R	0.25	1.25		1.25	1	0.75	0.5	0.25
RBI	0.75	3.75		3.75	3	2.25	1.5	0.75
HR	0.75	3.75		3.75	3	2.25	1.5	0.75
SB	0.25	1.25		1.25	1	0.75	0.5	0.25
AVG	1	5		5	4	3	2	1
Div	1	5
WC	0.5	2.5
TriCrown	2	10
Exc/Exp	0.5	2.5
Def/Bsr	1	5

Exc/Exp stands for 'Exceeding Expectations'. To me, that category was used to reflect something like Mike Trout bursting onto the scene in 2012. As I worked on my predictions, I sort of morphed the 'Exc/Exp' into a category that could also represent a player reaching a milestone like 50 homeruns. The 'TriCrown' category is self-explanatory, and also unnecessary for predicting the 2013 race, as no one won it. 'Def/Bsr' awards points for the premium defense and high end base-running (assigned at my discretion based on how I believe a player is perceived by the writers and using actual statistics). 'Div' and 'Wc' show the points awarded to a player for leading his team to the playoffs, either as a division champ or as a wildcard.

So, after all the tweaking, the point system worked well in giving me an idea of where and why the top 5 finished where they did. Here's the 2012 race as an example:

Actual voting:

	AL 2012
Voting (1st)	Player
362 (22)	Cabrera
281 (6)	Trout
210	Beltre
149	Cano
127	Hamilton

Saber and Traditional Points using the System:

Player	WAR	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG
Cabrera	6	1	3.75	3.75		5
Trout	10	1.25			1.25	4
Beltre	4					3
Cano	8	0.75
Hamilton			3	3

Intangibles Points using the System:

Player	Playoffs?	TriCrown	Exc/Exp	Def/Bsr
Cabrera	5	10
Trout			2.5	5
Beltre	2.5			5
Cano	5
Hamilton	2.5			5

Total System Points:

Player	Total
Cabrera	34.5
Trout	24
Beltre	14.5
Cano	13.75
Hamilton	13.5

For sake of space, I won't post each year's results, just some of the takeaways that influenced my predictions for this years race. Of the years I tested, the system always predicted the winner correctly, and usually had the top five finishers in an order that was close to their actual placing.

2012 was an easy win for Cabrera, and I believe the point system gives a fairly accurate representation as to why. Despite not finishing highly in the league in traditional power stats (RBI and HR), Trout finished highly in the voting. I believe his WAR got some respect, as did his high batting average, well rounded play, and the excitement factor he provided as a rookie superstar. Hamilton was hurt by his lower batting average, and lack of high caliber defense at a premium position.

Now, 2011 was an interesting year. A pitcher won. I assigned points for pitching stats for my system in a similar way that I did offensive stats. Although, for 2011 I don't think it matters much for the take away. Justin Verlander lead the AL in ERA, Wins, strikeouts, base runners allowed per inning (WHIP), and innings pitched. He also led the league in pitcher WAR. He clearly had an extremely dominant year. So, the takeaway is: pay attention to dominant pitching. Jacoby Ellsbury finished as the first non-pitcher in the voting and this was interesting as he beat out another centerfield candidate in Curtis Granderson, despite the fact that Granderson led his team to a division title. I think this supports the idea that higher batting average and defensive prowess are important to the voters. My point system actually sold the 3rd place finisher, Jose Bautista, short. This was a result of him finishing just outside of the top 5 in a number of categories. I think its obvious, but in assessing the 2013 class, players with strong offensive numbers across the board that don't necessarily finish very highly in multiple categories shouldn't be ignored.

In 2010, the system accurately showed the winner, Josh Hamilton, again. He also led the league in WAR and AVG. Again, batting average bears significant importance. Hamilton also played very solid defense in 2010 and showed more speed in the form of stolen bases. While he didn't finish in the top five in a lot of categories, I believe he was perceived as a very well-rounded contributor. Also worth noting, is that Hamilton had far fewer strikeouts this season than he did in 2012, when he finished further down in the voting. History shows that strikeouts can affect MVP voting.

In 2009, the system again showed the winner accurately (Joe Mauer by a large margin). Mauer led his team to the division title while leading the AL in average from behind the plate (offensive as a catcher is an intangible to consider). He didn't finish among the top 5 in the AL in traditional power stats, but he did have respectable numbers, none-the-less, and I'm sure the voters took notice. The voters really rewarded Mark Teixeira for leading the AL in RBIs and HRs while playing excellent defense. He beat out his high average hitting teammate, Derek Jeter. The Yankees division title helped both of these guys. Lastly, Miguel Cabrera and Kendry Morales finished 4th and 5th respectively, but did not receive a lot of points in my system. This can be attributed to them finishing just outside of the top five in a number of categories. This again reminds me not to overlook very good offensive campaigns that didn't necessarily finish on category leader boards.

Now, with these results in mind, plus other observations made throughout the process I'm going to address 2013.

This is Part I in a two part series, explaining the writer's process in forecasting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards. Read here for the predictions themselves.