Revisiting 2013 MLB Most Valuable Player Award Predictions

A few weeks ago, I attempted to predict how the BBWAA would vote for this season's American and National League MVP awards. The results came out earlier this week, so let's take a look at how I did.

Here are the results, followed by my prediction:

2013 AL MVP Top-5 (Actual)
Miguel Cabrera
Mike Trout
Chris Davis
Josh Donaldson
Robinson Cano

Me:
Miguel Cabrera
Mike Trout
Chris Davis
Josh Donaldson
Max Scherzer

As you can see, I did a fairly good job with the American League. My top 4 was spot on. However, clearly I overestimated what the writers would think of Max Scherzer's season. As I mentioned, I thought this was a fairly straightforward call, and so I'm happy I came close.

I personally, am not a fan of pitchers being included in the MVP race for a number of reasons. Most importantly, they have their own award already. Secondly, the way that the writers have incorporated pitchers into the MVP race is very inconsistent.

These are far from my biggest complaints with the BBWAA and how they vote on awards and the Hall of Fame. However, filing a lodge of complaints against the BBWAA could easily take up many pages, so I will move on.

2013 NL MVP Top-5 (actual)
Andrew McCutchen
Paul Goldschmidt
Yadier Molina
Matt Carpenter
Freddie Freeman

Me:
Clayton Kershaw
Andrew McCutchen
Paul Goldschmidt
Yadier Molina
Matt Carpenter

So, I botched this one by predicting that the writers would give it to Kershaw. But, my system did nail the order of the everyday players. So, I clearly overestimated the value that the writers were putting in the top pitchers in each league. To be honest, I think the NL outcome is kind of bizarre. I have no problem with McCutchen winning, as he had a fantastic season. And as I mentioned before, I don't believe pitchers should be considered for MVP. But that I'm still scratching my head over Kershaw finishing 7th in the voting.

Two years ago, the writers awarded Verlander the AL MVP by a wide margin, after a dominant season in which he ran away with the Cy Young. Kershaw won the Cy a few days ago, receiving 29 of the 30 first place votes. So, obviously the BBWAA recognized his outstanding season. His 1.83 ERA was the lowest by a major leaguer since 1985 (Doc Gooden). I could go more deeply into the numbers, but it doesn't really matter. Verlander easily winning the 2011 AL MVP, and Kershaw not even sniffing the top-5 in voting in 2013 doesn't add up.

Perhaps this is a sign that the writers are moving away from giving the MVP to pitchers. Anyhow, this was a fun exercise, and while I don't believe my system was anything special, the framework did a fairly good job with this season.