Blogger Roundtable: Which League Will Grow the Most? (Part I)

h/t to Business Insider

The four major U.S. sports leagues in the United States generate massive amounts of revenue.  Although there is great disparity between the leagues, each has considerable potential for growth.  In today's post, we'll be asking some of SBS's E-board members which league's stock they would be buying.  Tomorrow, we'll look at what our featured bloggers have to say.  So here's the question:

Which of the four traditional major professional sports leagues (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) will experience the highest percentage growth in revenue over the next 20 years?

Gabe Cassillo (SBS VP of Magazine)- NBA

While there's not much certainty on any topic in the world nowadays, let alone sports, I believe it is a fairly educated guess to say that the NBA will experience the largest growth in revenue over the next 20 years. While Football may be the king of the day, the recent concussion concerns and long-term impact on quality of players lives cannot be overlooked. 20 years down the road puts us at the point in our lives when today's children will become the next crop of professional athletes. Basketball seems to have the international appeal and overall flashiness to keep up in today (and presumably tomorrow's) action-packed world of entertainment. I feel it is inevitable for the athletes that once would play football to slide over to the relatively safer and flashier sport in basketball.

Dan Cappetta (SBS Director of Finance)- NFL

I believe that increasingly advanced technology and a global economy will lead maximum growth to come through a league's expansion overseas in the next 20 years. To start, we can begin by narrowing the field through process of elimination. The NHL is probably the least likely to expand in my opinion--it currently generates the least revenue of the four major sports, and some star players are actually being pulled away from the NHL to play in leagues overseas that can offer absurd contracts, such as the Russian KHL (see Ilya Kovalchuk, Sergei Kotstitsyn). Growth potential looks bleak here. The NBA ranks above the NHL in revenue, but Commissioner Stern has said that he is uninterested in adding overseas teams. Stern's reign is coming to an end, so this may change, but without the willingness to expand, it won't happen.

The MLB ranks second in revenue, but the current structure of the game allows international markets to act as a sort of farm system for the league. Players in Central and South America, as well as Southeast Asia, namely Japan, funnel into the MLB promoting internal growth. Outside of these regions though, participation is minimal--there are only 2 European players in the league. The MLB's internal growth potential won't trump the possible expansion of the NFL, which is pushing its game on the rest of the world. As different cultures begin to understand and accept the game, and enjoy some of the aspects that Americans have come to love--the physicality, the once-a-week format, the live game experience, fantasy football, etc--growth potential is enormous. The league's talks to put a team in London is the first step. NFL will take the cake in this one.

Adam Kirsch (SBS Co-President)- MLB

I think we'll see Major League Baseball make major revenue gains.  The changing demographics of the United States, especially the projected growth of the Latino population, align closely with the high concentration of Latino players in the league and should benefit attendance and numbers and merchandise sales.  Furthermore, the league's edge in technology due to MLBAM's efforts will continue to keep the league ahead of the game (pun intended) in terms of online presence, a position I expect the league to continue to monetize successfully.