The NFL's Most Improved Teams

The wait is over, it’s football season. And with a new season comes unrealistic optimism for fans like me who--at this point of the season every year--think that their team will be playing in February for the Lombardi Trophy. If your team has let you down recently, however, maybe this actually is the year that your high hopes aren’t baseless. Every year there are teams that perform drastically better than expected, so let’s figure out who those teams will be ahead of schedule. Maybe your team will be the lucky one this year. It is a new season, after all.

Atlanta Falcons: 2013 record: 4-12, 2014 prediction: 10-6
Everyone knows the Falcons aren’t a 4-win team and are due for an improvement in their record this season--the only question is to what degree. I was going to be dramatic and predict a 12-4 record, but they did lose their most consistent player in Tony Gonzalez. Outside of that loss, every other noteworthy difference is a positive one for Atlanta.

Let’s go through some: One of the league’s brightest young stars, Julio Jones, is back. After fracturing his foot in Week 5 against the Jets, Julio spent the rest of the season on the sidelines, watching his well-respected team falter. Is he really good enough to be a difference maker? Yes. He left that Week 5 game early, and was still leading the NFL in receptions at the end of that week. Were he to maintain the pace he was on before the injury, he would have finished with 131 receptions for 1,856 yards (which would’ve easily surpassed the NFL’s best last season). Remember that Jones made the Pro Bowl the year prior after an impressive campaign of 79 receptions for 1,198 yards. Can teams put their best corners on him and stop Atlanta’s entire passing attack?

While  Roddy White has officially become perceived as washed-up, he shouldn’t be. His ankle stopped him last season, which was good news for every corner who hasn’t been able to stop him for the past decade. He’s healthy now, and with a brand new extension that will probably keep him with the Falcons for the rest of his career, he’s certainly not done making his impact just yet. This past season was the first since 2006 that Roddy didn’t gain over 1150 yards receiving. That’s remarkable, and now that he’s healthy again and has Julio to distract the opposition’s best corners, I would be surprised if he didn’t reach at least 1000 yards this year. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have both said they think Roddy and Julio can each go for 1,500-plus yards this season--which would be the first time that was accomplished by two players on the same team--and while I’m not that optimistic, I think overlooking the Falcons passing game is nothing short of foolish.

Oh by the way, Harry Douglas had a 1,000 yard season of his own last year, and will now be the team’s third receiver. Expect a top-5 passing attack in Atlanta, despite that weak offensive line. They did draft Jake Matthews with their first pick this year, and acquire G Jon Asamoah from the Chiefs, but ater losing Sam Baker for the season already, the offensive line is a question mark for sure. Again, this is a 10-win team we’re talking about, not a Super Bowl winner necessarily. Still, we’re remembering the quality of their organization and forgetting the fluke that was their 2013 season. If their stars stay healthy, we’ll see them playing in January.

Green Bay Packers 2013 record: 8-7-1, 2014 prediction: 11-5
Also very tempted to exaggerate here, but take a look at their schedule and you’ll understand why I’m cautious. No team wants to be in the NFC North right now. 8-7-1 isn’t going to win the division again like it did for Green Bay last season, but I think the Packers will keep their spot at the top here. Concerns: Centers JC Tretter and Don Barclay are out, leaving rookie Corey Linsley with the starting role at least for now. He’s a fifth-round pick out of Ohio State and hasn’t snapped the ball to Aaron Rodgers in any game prior to Week 1. Rodgers is coming off an injury, and the Packers need to keep him healthy if they want to get the incredible play out of him that he is capable of producing. Why I’m Optimistic: Next to Linsley will be veteran guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang.

These guys are some of the top guys at their position, and will help ease Linsley into their system and keep Rodgers upright. When Rodgers doesn’t have to worry about the rush, I don’t have to tell you how great he is. With Jordy Nelson coming off a fantastic season, and Randall Cobb ready to show what he can do when healthy, Green Bay’s proven passing attack will be all that’s on opposing defenses minds. Cue Eddie Lacy. Another guy I don’t need to sell, but this young back is actually flying under the radar in my opinion. A Pro Bowler in his rookie season, Lacy is the best running back that isn’t his team’s biggest offensive threat. Don’t overlook that.

While I place guys like AP and Jamaal Charles ahead of him on overall talent, teams know and prepare all week for those guys. The Packers strong passing game will force defenses to spread out, giving Lacy room to improve upon the 1,178 yards he gained in his first season in the NFL. The defense is their weakness, but their pass rush this preseason looked fantastic. Why? Because it’s not the same defense as last year. Green Bay added an 8-time Pro Bowler in Julius Peppers, and an incredibly impressive talent in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Clay Matthews doesn’t have to play with a broken thumb and Nick Perry won’t be bothered by the broken foot that he played through last season. I love the Packers this year. Expect a run deep into the playoffs, and if the defense keeps up the strong play they’ve shown in the preseason, perhaps even a Super Bowl appearance.

Houston Texans 2013 record: 2-14, 2014 prediction: 8-8
Sigh. I don’t want to write too much about an 8-8 team, but I have to put them here if I expect 6 more wins from them. Arian Foster is still a top-5 back in the NFL, and Andre Johnson is a top-5 receiver in my opinion as far as talent goes. The most improved player, and my fantasy sleeper this year, is the astoundingly athletic DeAndre Hopkins. Their defensive line might have the two best lineman in the game by the end of the season (Watt is already playing and getting paid like it and Clowney’s talent will take him there), and the rest of their defense deserves a good chunk of respect themselves.

 Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t taking the Texans anywhere. Not saying anything bad about him, but we’ve seen him play to the best of his abilities in those games against New England while with Buffalo, and I don’t think he’ll reach close to that level again. I’m not giving him any extra love because he is a fellow Ivy Leaguer--he should not be the starter in Houston. I think he will be, at least for a while, but once Ryan Mallett is given a chance, I don’t think the Texans will look back. Mallett has a fantastic arm and learned behind one of the greatest of all-time in Tom Brady while in New England. If he gets the nod early in the season, I think Houston will be in playoff form by next year. Give him a shot. Perhaps above all, Houston has one of the easiest schedules in the league.

They get to play the Jaguars and Titans twice each, and will see the other last-placed AFC teams from last season in the Raiders, Browns, and Bills as well. They’re not a good team, but they’re so much better. Start Ryan Mallett and see him become a top-10 QB within a year or two, and they’ll be able to keep an unhappy Andre Johnson with them. If not, let’s hope we haven’t actually seen the best of Ryan Fitzpatrick just yet. No matter what happens, we will see much more than 2 wins this season in Houston.

NFL Statistical Over- and Underachievers Through Week 8

Will Cam Newton and the Panthers rise to the top of the NFL or compete at .500?

Pythagorean was a Greek mathematician who died over 2500 years ago. Most people know him for his theorem that A² + B² = C². In the sports world, Bill James transformed this theorem as a way to predict win expectancies in baseball. Daryl Morey took Bill James’s theory and moved it to basketball and then recently it became a way to also predict wins in the NFL. As the NFL hits the mid-season it is now time to see what teams are overachieving or underachieving based on football’s Pythagorean theorem. The theorem is:

Points For^2.37 / (Points For^2.37 + Points Against^2.37)

The formula produces an expected winning percentage. Today I am going to look at through week 8 of the NFL season which teams are doing better or worse than their expected number of wins so far this season. I did not include the Chiefs as an overachiever or the Jaguars or Buccaneers as underachievers as they are on pace to go 16-0 and 0-16 respectively and this system projects wins and loses for every team.



Underachievers:

Carolina Panthers: Current Record (4-3). The Panthers have won 57.1% of their games so far during the 2013 season, over the course of the season that projects to 9.14 wins. Yet according to their Pythagorean expectation the team should be on pace to win 12.7 games. The Carolina Panthers, based on Pythagorean expectation, are one of the best teams in the NFL this year. The projection is so optimistic because the Panthers are winning their games by an average of 24 points per game while they are losing games by an average of just 7.33. That’s an absolutely huge difference. One of the largest in the league, which is why the Panthers are expected to be much better than they are.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Current Record (2-5). The Steelers are currently on pace to win 4.57 games if they continue their 2-5 pace over the course of the season. The Steelers Pythagorean expectation is 6.12 wins. That means the Steelers are under performing by nearly 1.5 wins so far through 7 games. While this does not show the degree that the Steelers have been disappointing to many people, the Steelers are still not winning as many games as they should be. The Steelers have lost their 5 games by average of 8.8 points per game. Their average win has been 6.5 points which is why you would expect to see the Steelers to be on pace to win more games than they have.

Atlanta Falcons: Current Record (2-5). The Falcons just like the Steelers with the same record are on pace to win just 4.57 games this year. Yet the Falcons based on their points scored and given up should be on pace to win 7.03 games this year. That’s a difference nearly 2.5 wins over the course of the season and already over a win through 7 games. The Falcons were for many a Super Bowl pick this year; yet, not only have injuries hurt them, but also some bad luck. The Falcons based on the points scored and given up should be a better team this year. Some of this has to do with the fact that in their wins the Falcons have won by an average of 7.5 points, yet in their loses the Falcons have been outscored by of an average of just 6.6.

Overachievers:

Detroit Lions Current Record (5-3) The Lions are currently on pace to go 10-6. Yet their Pythagorean theorem for football has the team winning just 8.91 games. In the competitive NFC, the difference between making and missing the playoffs very easily could be the difference between going 9-7 or 10-6 especially after last year when even 10-6 could not make the postseason. This expectation is partially influenced by the Lions winning their 5 games by an average of 8 points a game while their 3 loses have been by an average of 7 points. The Lions will need to continue to hope to overachieve if they want to make the postseason this year.

New York Jets Current Record (4-4) The Jets are shocking many people by being .500 through the midway point of the season. Most people saw the Jets as a team closer to competing for the first pick than a playoff spot. To those people it may not be a sursprise that the Jets happen to be the NFL’s greatest overachiever through 8 weeks. Based on their current points for and against the Jets are team that should win 28.5% of their games which would be the Jets at approximately 2-6 through 8 games. The Jets are currently on pace to finish 8-8, yet have a Pythagorean win expectation of just 4.55 wins for the season. The Jets are the one of two teams who are .500 or better and have a negative point differential. The Jets average win has been by just 3.25 points while their loses have been by average of 20.25 point. The Jets have been one of the luckiest teams winning close games and getting blown out in loses.

Denver Broncos Current Record (7-1) The Broncos as an overachiever seemed extremely surprising considering the Broncos have averaged 42.88 points per game and have won their average game by 18.7 points while their sole loss was by just 6 points. The Broncos current pace has them finishing at 14-2 being the 10th team in the last 11 years to finish 14-2 or better. The Pythagorean theorem thinks that might be a bit ambitious having them nearly 2 wins worse with a projection of just 11.9 wins for the season or less than 6 wins so far this year. Even a small regression by the Broncos in the second half the season will still leave the Broncos battling for the AFC West title as well as one of the top seeds in the AFC.

Like any prediction model, the Pythagorean expectation for the NFL is not perfect. But it will be interesting to see how if teams underachieving at the half way point play better and will overachieving teams fall apart in the second half of the season. Will the Falcons and Steelers begin to play closer to some of the pre-season hype and move towards respectability? Will the Jets and Lions continue to compete for a post-season birth or regress back towards the middle and bottom of their conferences?







The team that to me is most interesting is the Carolina Panthers. Currently the Panthers are 2 games behind the Saints in the NFC South, yet they are expected to be better than the Saints by .5 game based on the Pythagorean expectation. Will the Panthers win the South and compete for a bye in the NFC or simply fight to make the post season?

A Letter to Falcons Fans: The Los Angeles Card

Moving to Los Angeles? A pipe dream. 

Dear Atlanta Falcons Fan,

Congratulations. Not only are you going to keep your Falcons in Atlanta, but also gain that new stadium you've long coveted. While the talks between the team, the city of Atlanta, and the state of Georgia have not yet technically produced that new stadium, I am now sure it is going to happen. How can I be so sure? After all, both the city and the state seem hesitant to commit public money to the project and the Falcons do not want to completely fund the project. Follow the logic after the jump.

Well, I’m from Los Angeles, and as soon as LA's name becomes affiliated with your team, it almost always works out in your favor. Since the Rams and Raiders left in 1994 and 1995 respectively, there have been now 14 teams who have played the "Los Angeles card" in their quest to improve their stadium. Yet Los Angeles still has no football team. Baltimore can thank Los Angeles for its Ravens; Houston can thank Los Angeles for the Texans. For fans of Seattle, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Minnesota (soon) and San Francisco, it seems only right that they “thank” Los Angeles for their new stadiums. The threat of moving to Los Angeles helped each team secure the funding for a new stadium in their own city. New Orleans, Carolina and Buffalo used the threat of Los Angeles to improve the condition of their current stadiums. The only teams that have not been able to leverage Los Angeles to their own success are San Diego and Oakland. Those two has to do with California state law banning the use of tax dollars for public stadiums as much as anything else.

See, Atlanta? It almost always works out when Los Angeles gets involved. It doesn’t matter that your governor says that Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank has never once threatened the Los Angeles card because Los Angeles has come to you. We want your team because we have not one, but two NFL stadiums ready to break ground as soon as a team is ready to move. We are America’s second largest television market, yet we are missing America’s number one sport. Now it is only a matter of time until the state of Georgia and the Falcons reach an agreement on how to fund the current 100 million dollar difference that currently exists. Despite the fact 75% of Georgians oppose public funding towards a new stadium, no politician wants to be the person who let the NFL leave the city. I know it seems stupid that your billionaire owner only wants to pay for 70% of the new stadium when both potential Los Angeles stadiums are being 100% financed privately, but Arthur Blank knows that the city and state won’t let the Falcons leave.

The closer 2017 gets, when the Falcons current lease ends, the louder the Los Angeles rumors will be. By then, the politicians, who currently do not want to deal, will sign a deal to build the Falcons a new stadium. Just ask the Minnesota legislature, who for years did not want to build a new stadium on public money until suddenly the threat of the Los Angeles Vikings became too great and a deal was reached almost immediately to keep the team in Minnesota.

So congratulations, Atlanta. I’m excited for your new stadium, and hopefully it will keep the team in Georgia for the foreseeable future.



Sincerely,

The NFL fans of Los Angeles