The NFL's Most Improved Teams

The wait is over, it’s football season. And with a new season comes unrealistic optimism for fans like me who--at this point of the season every year--think that their team will be playing in February for the Lombardi Trophy. If your team has let you down recently, however, maybe this actually is the year that your high hopes aren’t baseless. Every year there are teams that perform drastically better than expected, so let’s figure out who those teams will be ahead of schedule. Maybe your team will be the lucky one this year. It is a new season, after all.

Atlanta Falcons: 2013 record: 4-12, 2014 prediction: 10-6
Everyone knows the Falcons aren’t a 4-win team and are due for an improvement in their record this season--the only question is to what degree. I was going to be dramatic and predict a 12-4 record, but they did lose their most consistent player in Tony Gonzalez. Outside of that loss, every other noteworthy difference is a positive one for Atlanta.

Let’s go through some: One of the league’s brightest young stars, Julio Jones, is back. After fracturing his foot in Week 5 against the Jets, Julio spent the rest of the season on the sidelines, watching his well-respected team falter. Is he really good enough to be a difference maker? Yes. He left that Week 5 game early, and was still leading the NFL in receptions at the end of that week. Were he to maintain the pace he was on before the injury, he would have finished with 131 receptions for 1,856 yards (which would’ve easily surpassed the NFL’s best last season). Remember that Jones made the Pro Bowl the year prior after an impressive campaign of 79 receptions for 1,198 yards. Can teams put their best corners on him and stop Atlanta’s entire passing attack?

While  Roddy White has officially become perceived as washed-up, he shouldn’t be. His ankle stopped him last season, which was good news for every corner who hasn’t been able to stop him for the past decade. He’s healthy now, and with a brand new extension that will probably keep him with the Falcons for the rest of his career, he’s certainly not done making his impact just yet. This past season was the first since 2006 that Roddy didn’t gain over 1150 yards receiving. That’s remarkable, and now that he’s healthy again and has Julio to distract the opposition’s best corners, I would be surprised if he didn’t reach at least 1000 yards this year. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have both said they think Roddy and Julio can each go for 1,500-plus yards this season--which would be the first time that was accomplished by two players on the same team--and while I’m not that optimistic, I think overlooking the Falcons passing game is nothing short of foolish.

Oh by the way, Harry Douglas had a 1,000 yard season of his own last year, and will now be the team’s third receiver. Expect a top-5 passing attack in Atlanta, despite that weak offensive line. They did draft Jake Matthews with their first pick this year, and acquire G Jon Asamoah from the Chiefs, but ater losing Sam Baker for the season already, the offensive line is a question mark for sure. Again, this is a 10-win team we’re talking about, not a Super Bowl winner necessarily. Still, we’re remembering the quality of their organization and forgetting the fluke that was their 2013 season. If their stars stay healthy, we’ll see them playing in January.

Green Bay Packers 2013 record: 8-7-1, 2014 prediction: 11-5
Also very tempted to exaggerate here, but take a look at their schedule and you’ll understand why I’m cautious. No team wants to be in the NFC North right now. 8-7-1 isn’t going to win the division again like it did for Green Bay last season, but I think the Packers will keep their spot at the top here. Concerns: Centers JC Tretter and Don Barclay are out, leaving rookie Corey Linsley with the starting role at least for now. He’s a fifth-round pick out of Ohio State and hasn’t snapped the ball to Aaron Rodgers in any game prior to Week 1. Rodgers is coming off an injury, and the Packers need to keep him healthy if they want to get the incredible play out of him that he is capable of producing. Why I’m Optimistic: Next to Linsley will be veteran guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang.

These guys are some of the top guys at their position, and will help ease Linsley into their system and keep Rodgers upright. When Rodgers doesn’t have to worry about the rush, I don’t have to tell you how great he is. With Jordy Nelson coming off a fantastic season, and Randall Cobb ready to show what he can do when healthy, Green Bay’s proven passing attack will be all that’s on opposing defenses minds. Cue Eddie Lacy. Another guy I don’t need to sell, but this young back is actually flying under the radar in my opinion. A Pro Bowler in his rookie season, Lacy is the best running back that isn’t his team’s biggest offensive threat. Don’t overlook that.

While I place guys like AP and Jamaal Charles ahead of him on overall talent, teams know and prepare all week for those guys. The Packers strong passing game will force defenses to spread out, giving Lacy room to improve upon the 1,178 yards he gained in his first season in the NFL. The defense is their weakness, but their pass rush this preseason looked fantastic. Why? Because it’s not the same defense as last year. Green Bay added an 8-time Pro Bowler in Julius Peppers, and an incredibly impressive talent in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Clay Matthews doesn’t have to play with a broken thumb and Nick Perry won’t be bothered by the broken foot that he played through last season. I love the Packers this year. Expect a run deep into the playoffs, and if the defense keeps up the strong play they’ve shown in the preseason, perhaps even a Super Bowl appearance.

Houston Texans 2013 record: 2-14, 2014 prediction: 8-8
Sigh. I don’t want to write too much about an 8-8 team, but I have to put them here if I expect 6 more wins from them. Arian Foster is still a top-5 back in the NFL, and Andre Johnson is a top-5 receiver in my opinion as far as talent goes. The most improved player, and my fantasy sleeper this year, is the astoundingly athletic DeAndre Hopkins. Their defensive line might have the two best lineman in the game by the end of the season (Watt is already playing and getting paid like it and Clowney’s talent will take him there), and the rest of their defense deserves a good chunk of respect themselves.

 Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t taking the Texans anywhere. Not saying anything bad about him, but we’ve seen him play to the best of his abilities in those games against New England while with Buffalo, and I don’t think he’ll reach close to that level again. I’m not giving him any extra love because he is a fellow Ivy Leaguer--he should not be the starter in Houston. I think he will be, at least for a while, but once Ryan Mallett is given a chance, I don’t think the Texans will look back. Mallett has a fantastic arm and learned behind one of the greatest of all-time in Tom Brady while in New England. If he gets the nod early in the season, I think Houston will be in playoff form by next year. Give him a shot. Perhaps above all, Houston has one of the easiest schedules in the league.

They get to play the Jaguars and Titans twice each, and will see the other last-placed AFC teams from last season in the Raiders, Browns, and Bills as well. They’re not a good team, but they’re so much better. Start Ryan Mallett and see him become a top-10 QB within a year or two, and they’ll be able to keep an unhappy Andre Johnson with them. If not, let’s hope we haven’t actually seen the best of Ryan Fitzpatrick just yet. No matter what happens, we will see much more than 2 wins this season in Houston.