NFL Statistical Over- and Underachievers Through Week 8

Will Cam Newton and the Panthers rise to the top of the NFL or compete at .500?

Pythagorean was a Greek mathematician who died over 2500 years ago. Most people know him for his theorem that A² + B² = C². In the sports world, Bill James transformed this theorem as a way to predict win expectancies in baseball. Daryl Morey took Bill James’s theory and moved it to basketball and then recently it became a way to also predict wins in the NFL. As the NFL hits the mid-season it is now time to see what teams are overachieving or underachieving based on football’s Pythagorean theorem. The theorem is:

Points For^2.37 / (Points For^2.37 + Points Against^2.37)

The formula produces an expected winning percentage. Today I am going to look at through week 8 of the NFL season which teams are doing better or worse than their expected number of wins so far this season. I did not include the Chiefs as an overachiever or the Jaguars or Buccaneers as underachievers as they are on pace to go 16-0 and 0-16 respectively and this system projects wins and loses for every team.



Underachievers:

Carolina Panthers: Current Record (4-3). The Panthers have won 57.1% of their games so far during the 2013 season, over the course of the season that projects to 9.14 wins. Yet according to their Pythagorean expectation the team should be on pace to win 12.7 games. The Carolina Panthers, based on Pythagorean expectation, are one of the best teams in the NFL this year. The projection is so optimistic because the Panthers are winning their games by an average of 24 points per game while they are losing games by an average of just 7.33. That’s an absolutely huge difference. One of the largest in the league, which is why the Panthers are expected to be much better than they are.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Current Record (2-5). The Steelers are currently on pace to win 4.57 games if they continue their 2-5 pace over the course of the season. The Steelers Pythagorean expectation is 6.12 wins. That means the Steelers are under performing by nearly 1.5 wins so far through 7 games. While this does not show the degree that the Steelers have been disappointing to many people, the Steelers are still not winning as many games as they should be. The Steelers have lost their 5 games by average of 8.8 points per game. Their average win has been 6.5 points which is why you would expect to see the Steelers to be on pace to win more games than they have.

Atlanta Falcons: Current Record (2-5). The Falcons just like the Steelers with the same record are on pace to win just 4.57 games this year. Yet the Falcons based on their points scored and given up should be on pace to win 7.03 games this year. That’s a difference nearly 2.5 wins over the course of the season and already over a win through 7 games. The Falcons were for many a Super Bowl pick this year; yet, not only have injuries hurt them, but also some bad luck. The Falcons based on the points scored and given up should be a better team this year. Some of this has to do with the fact that in their wins the Falcons have won by an average of 7.5 points, yet in their loses the Falcons have been outscored by of an average of just 6.6.

Overachievers:

Detroit Lions Current Record (5-3) The Lions are currently on pace to go 10-6. Yet their Pythagorean theorem for football has the team winning just 8.91 games. In the competitive NFC, the difference between making and missing the playoffs very easily could be the difference between going 9-7 or 10-6 especially after last year when even 10-6 could not make the postseason. This expectation is partially influenced by the Lions winning their 5 games by an average of 8 points a game while their 3 loses have been by an average of 7 points. The Lions will need to continue to hope to overachieve if they want to make the postseason this year.

New York Jets Current Record (4-4) The Jets are shocking many people by being .500 through the midway point of the season. Most people saw the Jets as a team closer to competing for the first pick than a playoff spot. To those people it may not be a sursprise that the Jets happen to be the NFL’s greatest overachiever through 8 weeks. Based on their current points for and against the Jets are team that should win 28.5% of their games which would be the Jets at approximately 2-6 through 8 games. The Jets are currently on pace to finish 8-8, yet have a Pythagorean win expectation of just 4.55 wins for the season. The Jets are the one of two teams who are .500 or better and have a negative point differential. The Jets average win has been by just 3.25 points while their loses have been by average of 20.25 point. The Jets have been one of the luckiest teams winning close games and getting blown out in loses.

Denver Broncos Current Record (7-1) The Broncos as an overachiever seemed extremely surprising considering the Broncos have averaged 42.88 points per game and have won their average game by 18.7 points while their sole loss was by just 6 points. The Broncos current pace has them finishing at 14-2 being the 10th team in the last 11 years to finish 14-2 or better. The Pythagorean theorem thinks that might be a bit ambitious having them nearly 2 wins worse with a projection of just 11.9 wins for the season or less than 6 wins so far this year. Even a small regression by the Broncos in the second half the season will still leave the Broncos battling for the AFC West title as well as one of the top seeds in the AFC.

Like any prediction model, the Pythagorean expectation for the NFL is not perfect. But it will be interesting to see how if teams underachieving at the half way point play better and will overachieving teams fall apart in the second half of the season. Will the Falcons and Steelers begin to play closer to some of the pre-season hype and move towards respectability? Will the Jets and Lions continue to compete for a post-season birth or regress back towards the middle and bottom of their conferences?







The team that to me is most interesting is the Carolina Panthers. Currently the Panthers are 2 games behind the Saints in the NFC South, yet they are expected to be better than the Saints by .5 game based on the Pythagorean expectation. Will the Panthers win the South and compete for a bye in the NFC or simply fight to make the post season?

Key Members for All 30 NBA Organizations

In the NBA, the most important figures in an organization do not necessarily have to be the max contract superstars. In fact, they do not even have to be the players themselves. After one of the greatest NBA Finals in recent memory, fans are as excited as ever for the season to finally begin. The following list highlights a single individual who will be crucial to the success of every respective team in the NBA for the upcoming 2013/2014 season:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
 

Boston Celtics: Danny Ainge, General Manager – one of the most respected executives in the game today has a tough job ahead working with a team that’s completely starting over. Will Rajon Rondo still be in green by the end of the year?
 

Brooklyn Nets: Lawrence Frank, Assistant Coach – Jason Kidd will have much to learn from his old head coach as he attempts to garner the respect of his veterans including Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.
 

New York Knicks: Metta World Peace – the artist formerly known as Ron Artest will bring a much needed hard-nosed style to a Knickerbocker team looking to contend in the East once again.
 

Philadelphia 76ers: Sam Hinkie, General Manager – a former Daryl Morey disciple, Hinkie will likely make many of his decisions this season for the rebuilding Sixer squad based on his knowledge of advanced statistical analytics.
 

Toronto Raptors: Masai Ujiri, General Manager – the ex-Denver Nuggets GM will have a difficult task dealing with a team that doesn’t really seem to be going anywhere.  

Central Division
 

Chicago Bulls: Fred Tedeschi, Head Trainer – one of the main storylines of the season is the return of Derrick Rose from the torn ACL he suffered in the 2012 Playoffs. All indications are that he’s back to himself but Tedeschi is one of the few individual who truly know what we may expect to see from the former MVP
 

Cleveland Cavaliers: Andrew Bynum, Center – the Cavs are making a fairly substantial investment in the injury-plagued big man, hoping that he returns to form after spending more time playing with his hair than playing basketball last year.
 

Detroit Pistons: Andre Drummond, Center – huge upside but the question is whether or not he’ll have room to breakout playing alongside Greg Monroe and the newly acquired Josh Smith.
 

Indiana Pacers: Danny Granger, Small Forward - major health concerns like Bynum, but he’s an All-Star caliber player when healthy. If he can provide some scoring for them they have a great shot to dethrone Miami.
 

Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson, Power Forward – showed glimpse of his monstrous potential last year. Has a chance to form a superb defensive tandem with Larry Sanders.

Southeast Division
 

Atlanta Hawks: Mike Budenholzer, Head Coach – whenever you hire Gregg Popovich’s right-hand man for over a decade you know you made a good choice.
 

Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Small Forward – very shaky rookie season after being selected 2^nd overall in the 2012 Draft. With sub-par shooting skills he has all the makings of a vintage Michael Jordan bust.
 

Miami Heat: David Fizdale, Assistant Coach – Erik Spoelstra’s top assistant since 2008. Had several head-coaching interviews this offseason. Was a big influence on the taming of the “Birdman” Chris Anderson last year. Can he do the same with Michael Beasley?
 

Orlando Magic: Rob Hennigan, General Manager – youngest GM in the league at age 30 when he was hired last offseason. Who would’ve thought that the Magic would be the team that received the most from the blockbuster Dwight Howard trade.
 

Washington Wizards: Otto Porter, Small Forward - Georgetown product will be asked to play major minutes right away as a rookie. He should fit in nicely playing alongside the upstart backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal.

Western Conference

Southwest Division
 

Dallas Mavericks: Jose Calderon, Point Guard – underrated player with a high IQ for the game, but received a four-year deal on a team that desperately needed to add some youth.
 

Houston Rockets: Chandler Parsons, Small Forward – the man that recruited D12 to Houston. If he can build off last year we may see a star in the making.
 

Memphis Grizzlies: John Hollinger, VP of Basketball Operations - had a large say in the decision to not bring back Lionel Hollins after the franchise’s most successful season. Invented Player Efficiency Rating (PER) – a statistic to used to quantify a player’s total in-game performance.
 

New Orleans Pelicans: Monty Williams, Head Coach - lucky to be back after another losing season. Coaching a very talented squad now with additions of Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holliday.
 

San Antonio Spurs: Kawhi Leonard, Small Forward - broke out in last season’s Playoffs. Has a chance to become an All-Star if he continues to play at a high level.

Northwest Division
 

Denver Nuggets: Brian Shaw, Head Coach - finally has his chance to coach a team after years as an assistant. Team lost a great player in Andre Iguodola so we’ll just have to wait and see if they even stay relevant in the highly competitive West.
 

Minnesota Timberwolves: Flip Saunders, President of Basketball Operations - former T-Wolves head coach. Could this be the year they finally make the Playoffs with a healthy core of Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.
 

Portland Trail Blazers: Nicolas Batum, Small Forward – had yet another underrated season last year. If LaMarcus Aldridge gets traded he’ll be asked to have an even bigger role.
 

Oklahoma City Thunder: Sam Presti, General Manager - clear now that he really missed with the Harden trade. After an early Playoff exit following the injury to Russell Westbrook, there’s much pressure on them to come out of the West again.
 

Utah Jazz: Denins Lindsey, General Manager - did a terrible job in his first year as GM last season as the team missed the Playoffs and got nothing in return for Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. If this team doesn’t show improvement he could be gone.

Pacific Division
 

Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes, Small Forward – superstar talent after his awesome rookie campaign. It’ll be interesting to see how he adapts as a  sixth man after the Iggy signing.
 

Los Angeles Clippers: Doc Rivers, Head Coach - going to bring toughness to a team that was dominated by physical competition last year. Clearly coaching the new best team in the Staples Center.
 

Los Angeles Lakers: Jeanie Buss – Executive VP of Business Operations - as a Laker fan it pains me to say that this is going to be a very long season. Jeanie needs to have a bigger say in the organization because her conceited brother clearly has no knowledge of the game as seen by his decision to go with D’Antoni over his future brother in-law Phil Jackson.
 

Phoenix Suns: Ryan McDonough, General Manager – New GM who learned much over the years from Danny Aigne. Has already made some nice moves acquiring Eric Bledsoe, and trading away Marcin Gortat after drafting Alex Len.

Sacramento Kings: Vivek Ranadive, Owner -  new owner of a team that was in mired in turmoil all season long under the Maloof Brothers. On the bright side, a new regime is in place and the team can’t get much worse than it was last year.

NBA Salary Cap Part 2: Solution

This is Part II of a two-part series.  To read Part I, click here.

So now you know how the new CBA is hurting competitive balance in the NBA. The small market teams just can't hold on to their own stars that they've developed. But before we address the issue, let's examine what we want an idealized NBA to look like.
No league is more popular or more balanced than the NFL. Part of this is because teams have roster sizes of 53, compared to 15, and just intrinsic differences between the game of basketball and football. But a large portion of this parity is owed to the fact the NFL features a hard cap, while the NBA features a soft cap with a luxury tax. The NFL playoffs almost always features a last place team from a year ago, and turnover rate for playoff teams is almost half. Seemingly every team in the league has a shot (except the Jaguars, but I digress).

The New York Jets just traded their best defender, Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay because he was too expensive during a rebuild. A New York team traded their best player. To Florida. Because he was making to much money. This would never happen in the NBA. But a hard cap does not discriminate, and roster management is determined by your savvy, not by the size of your check book. Small market teams like Green Bay have won a title recently and are always contending. The best franchises are competitive every year, even if they aren't quite a mortal lock to make the playoffs.

If a hard cap is out of the question, I think the NBA should scrap the max contract. But only scrap the max contract for teams trying to resign their own players, a la achieving full "Bird rights." This way Orlando can offer over 30 million dollars annually to keep their star center Dwight Howard, while Houston can only offer around 20. This also likely prevents the formation of super teams like the Heat's big three, as one of them would have to take a serious pay cut to fill out a roster. If Cleveland could offer LeBron 35 million a year while Miami could only offer 20, he might be less inclined to leave. It might not be all about the money for Lebron, who can make another 20 million a year off the court, but for guys like Carmelo, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, it could be a huge incentive to resign.

You always hear the incumbent team can offer so much extra money, but that's deceptive. They can offer an extra year, but take that away (elite players will just get a max the next time around and make up the extra year) and the difference is a lot smaller. That, combined with favorable tax rates in states like Texas and Florida, can completely mitigate the difference.

Let's look at Dwight Howard. The contract he signed with the Rockets is worth about $88 million over four years with an early termination option (ETO) after three years. This means Howard can activate his ETO and just resign with the Rockets, assuming they still want him, and resign for more money. In fact, in three years Howard is eligible for his five year max deal that he passed up in Orlando. So yes, its a gamble that Howard will command that max contract three years down the road, but Dwight can still get max money even though he didn't re-up with the team that drafted and developed him. Does this seem like the new CBA is working?

Now in my ideal NBA, Houston can only offer four years (like in the real NBA), but Orlando could offer six. Or seven. Hell, they could offer eight. Orlando can offer whatever they want, since they have full Bird rights. They could offer 30 million a year, if they so chose. But the key here is only the max deal amount counts against the cap. So if Orlando wanted to offer 30 a year, it would only count against the cap as 22 a year.

Another issue is a free agent signing with a new team can obtain a max deal in three years, less than the length of max deal. The issue with the bird rights is they apply to non-max guys as well (see Jeremy Lin) as they allow a team to go past the cap to sign their own player. A player should have to ride out the full length of his contract before these full Bird rights activate.

With David Stern retiring soon and Adam Silver stepping in, a new CBA could be a perfect time to make major changes. But, does the NBA feel the need to make these changes during a new height of popularity? Only time will tell.


This is Part II of a two-part series.  To read Part I, click here.

NBA Preview "And One" Playoff Predictions

This is Part II in a two-part series previewing the National Basketball Association season on Sports Business Society's Tipoff Week.  To read Part I, click here. 

All the questions I asked before were mostly human interest.  Now for the question that really matters:

Which teams will complete the playoff picture in each league?

As the season approaches, there appears to be a block of teams in each league we can pencil in as playoff participants without much argument. In the Western Conference, the six seemingly shoo-ins are, (in no particular order) The Rockets, Spurs, Thunder, Warriors, Clippers and Grizzlies. In the East, the teams that will stand atop the standings (again in no particular order) are The Knicks, Heat, Nets, Pacers and Bulls. The last two western conference playoff spots will come down to a battle between Denver, Dallas, Portland and Minnesota.

Sorry Lakers fans  despite Kobe's objections the purple and gold will not be in the playoff hunt. Look on the bright side, next year’s lottery will provide you with a potential successor to the Mamba.

 This past summer the Nuggets lost their coach, G.M. and most prized free agent. However, their acquisitions of J.J. Hickson, Randy Foye and Nate Robinson will sure up their bench, make up for the lost production brought about by Igoudala’s departure and keep the Nuggets’ fast-paced attack relevant until the end of the regular season.

Mark Cuban and company took on the hair pulling frustration that comes with a team lead by the Mississippi Missile, Monta Ellis. Ellis’ inconsistent play and poor shooting percentage historically leads to losing seasons. What Big-D can hang their cowboy hats on this year is that their offense will run through Dirk, Monta will simply provide the secondary scoring option that they’ve lacked in the past few years. What separates the Mavs from the West’s contenders stems from their complete and utter lack of frontcourt depth. Nominees for their best non-Dirk big-man include; Samuel Dalembert, DeJuan Blair and Brandon Wright...Need I say more?

Last season the Blazers’ had one of the NBA’s most competitive starting fives. Unfortunately for them, their bench was the worst in the league, by a lot. Their bench scored 25% fewer points than the next least productive bench. Luckily for the fans in Rip City, they brought in Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright and Mo Williams, amongst others, to sure up their bench and keep them in the post-season hunt.

The Timberwolves, when healthy, can play with most anyone in the NBA. Adding Kevin Martin to the potentially dominant trio of Rubio, Love and Pekovic provides them with a starting five to be reckoned with. The T-Wolves also have two players on the NBA’s all-name team, Alexey Shved and Gorgui Dieng. If they remain healthy then they have as good a chance as any to make the playoffs.

 In the East the discrepancy between the fifth and sixth seeds, is larger than that of the Ben Stiller led movies Zoolander and Envy. The illustrious four teams vying for the final three spots include Detroit, Cleveland, Washington and Milwaukee.

Of these teams, the Pistons arguably had the best summer. The acquisitions of two of the league’s best lefties (J. Smith and B. Jennings) as well as one Mr. Big Shot, thrust them into a playoff or bust mindset. The NBA’s biggest floppy haired YouTube sensation, might also be their best reserve, this is a problem for D-Town. Their lack of depth will inevitably keep them out of contention for a top five seed in the East. 

The Bucks seem eager at the chance to defend their eighth seed. Despite losing their hyper-quick backcourt, their offseason moves (Ridnour, Neal, Mayo and Knight) potentially improved them at the guard position. If their frontcourt of Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders develop nicely and O.J. can score with consistency, look for the Bucks to make a potential run at as high as a six seed. As things stand currently, however, they’re looking at another battle for the last playoff spot. Once again depriving their fans of drafting a potential new franchise player in the lottery.

Cleveland fans finally have something basketball related  to look forward to besides LeBron’s free agency and the next episode in the Uncle Drew YouTube series. Their signing of Andrew Bynum has Cavs fans expecting postseason basketball for the first time since King James’ departure. Their lack of depth and veteran leadership, however, should keep them at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Leading to a potential first round matchup with their former hometown hero.

Lastly, we have the Wizards. The backcourt of Wall and Beal has the chance to place the Wizards in the national spotlight for the first time since Agent 0 (Gilbert Arenas) had the bright idea of bringing his piece to the office and the far reaching responses to his felonious action. If any of their forwards, Nene, Big Al Harrington, Otto Porter or even newly acquired Marcin Gortat, develop as a viable alternative scoring option, then DC could provide Obama with his first hometown playoffs since entering the Oval Office.

This is Part II in a two-part series previewing the National Basketball Association season on Sports Business Society's Tipoff Week.  To read Part I, click here.

NBA Preview Three-Pointer

This is Part I in a two-part series previewing the National Basketball Association season on Sports Business Society's Tipoff Week.  Click here to read the conclusion.

1. Can We Expect Anything from This Rookie Class?

No. Well the possibility is highly unlikely. Victor Oladipo would be the obvious answer, but he might not even start on a team that seems to have already booked its return trip to the lottery. Anthony Bennett has the skillset to provide some entertainment but will unlikely find many minutes on a team that wants to make the playoffs and already has a solid frontcourt of Earl Clark, Tristan Thompson and Andrew Bynum.

Almost everywhere you look lottery picks from this summer’s draft are second on the depth chart Otto Porter’s behind Trevor Ariza, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's behind behind Chauncey Billups and what Shabazz Muhammad lacks in commonsense he will also lack in minutes this year as he appears to have fallen to third at his position on Minnesota’s depth chart. At least the Bucks' Greek rookie can provide entertainment simply by people’s vain attempts to correctly pronounce his name. The one rookie who was likely going to get the best chance to put up numbers was Trey Burke, as the starting point guard for the Jazz, but now he’s out for a few months with a hand injury.

The two fleeting glimpses of hope for this rookie class are Cody Zeller and Ben McLemore. Zeller is slotted to start for Charlotte, although not too much should be expected from a production standpoint with The Black Hole (Al Jefferson) and Kemba taking most of the shots. McLemore should be somewhat of a focal point in Sacramento’s offense, the Kings’ unfortunate recent history of ruining players leaves me skeptical towards McLemore’s potential

2. Are There New Rivalries Brewing in the East?

As two of the league’s top teams, playing in the same division, the Bulls and Pacers will cross paths for what should be some hot-blooded affairs. The potential for bad blood between these two teams was escalated when Bulls star Derrick Rose overlooked the Pacers as a potential rival, stating that the Heat were the Bulls’ main concern in the Eastern Conference. The teams square off for the first time with a nationally televised game on November 6. This should set the tone for their next three games. The smart money is one at least one altercation this season. Rose’s comments won’t sit well with Indiana, and with the physical nature of their frontlines (Boozer, Hibbert, Noah, West), emotions could easily spill over.

Since LeBron first took his talents to South Beach, the Celtics and Heat have not liked each other one bit. It appears that KG and The Truth have taken this animosity with them to their new home in the Empire State. Most would assume that Brooklyn and their new starters would naturally most concern themselves with their crosstown rival. Up to this point, however, it appears that the Heat are on Brooklyn’s immediate radar. Heat players called for an apology from Garnett and Pierce over their treatment of Ray Allen, to which KG politely told LeBron to worry about his own team. The teams meet four times this season in games that appear to have a sudden extra meaning. The first of which comes opening week, November 1, on ESPN.            

Lastly, although not new, look for the Detroit-Cleveland rivalry to pick up for the first time since King James use to go at it with Rip Hamilton and the crew. Both teams seem poised for a run to end their postseason droughts and will likely fight each other for seeding at the bottom of the conference. If no extra-curricular activity arises from these two , at least their matchups will pin two of the league’s top up-and-coming PG’s against each other.

3. Sophomore Slump?

Although this rookie class lacks a certain oomph, last year’s showed some tremendous signs of promise. Damian Lillard, last year’s ROY, has all the makings of an NBA star. This year, his Blazers team brought in the help that D Lil. desperately needed. This help, should get Portland more wins, but look for Lillard’s production to drop with more offensive options and increase in viable backups at his position, C.J. McCollum and Mo Williams.

Harrison Barnes (aka The Black Falcon, aka HB-angout), had a coming out party during the Warriors’ playoff run last spring.  Two words will provide all the reason for his inevitable sophomore slump, Iguo Dala. Dub Nation's offseason acquisition will seriously reduce Barnes' minutes. 

The second year trio of Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond and Dion Waiters should carry the weight for 2012 draft class. All of whom are slotted to start and should see a quality amount of minutes based on a lack of depth for their teams at their respective positions. Of these three, look for Beal to have the most productive year, as he should be the secondary offensive option for the Wizards. No one else from this group will be asked to score at the same clip. 

This is Part I in a two-part series previewing the National Basketball Association season on Sports Business Society's Tipoff Week.  Click here to read the conclusion.

Calling the 2013 MLB Most Valuable Player Award Races (Part 2- Predictions)

This is Part II in a two part series, predicting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards.  Check out the author's process by reading Part I.

Using the process outlined in Part I, I've come up with my own predictions for how the Baseball Writer's Association of America will vote for this season's American and National League Most Valuable Player Awards.

I began with a long list that included essentially any player who finished near the top of the leader board in WAR, traditional power stats, on-base plus slugging, or average. After plugging the numbers into the system, it was easy to eliminate a good portion of the list. In fact, I was very pleased with who the template told me were the top dogs. This is because I think that most people have a fairly good idea about what will happen with the AL race. The NL will be a tougher call and so this was a good test for the point system. Here were the top 4 finishers in the AL:

Player	WAR	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG	Playoff	Exc/Exp	Def	Total
Cabrera	6	1	3	3		5	5			23
Donaldson	8	o	o			o	5	2.5	5	20.5
Trout	10	1.25	o	o	o	3			5	19.25
Davis	2	0.75	3.75	3.75				2.5		12.75

I'm on board with these guys finishing in the top 4. However, I think I need to take a few other factors into account and reassess the order after Cabrera. Now, of importance are the categories marked "o". "o" is to show that a player finished near the top five in the category, but was not awarded points as he was just outside. My own discretionary points could definitely be a bit generous to Donaldson, and I believe that the fact that Trout finished highly, but not within the top five, of RBI, HR, and SB warrants him being moved ahead of Donaldson in the voting. I think Trout is recognized as the best all around player in baseball and will finish second to Cabrera again this year.

Picking between Davis and Donaldson for 3rd is tougher. If I were to remove Donaldson's Exc/Exp points (extra points I awarded for bursting on the scene and having a "clutch" narrative surrounding him) and give Davis a boost of say 5, for leading in RBIs and HRs, plus blasting through the 50 hr threshold, his and Donaldson's point totals would fall much closer. Last year's results are interesting to consider: In 2012, Josh Hamilton, with excellent power numbers and high strikeout totals akin to Davis in 2013, finished 5th in the voting behind the solid-across-the-board seasons of Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltre.

Cano and Beltre are not bad comparisons for Donaldson this year. However, Donaldson's power numbers are slightly below where Cano and Beltre were last year. Also, Davis crushed the competition with 53 home runs this season- 10 more than Hamilton hit last year when he finished second in the category. But, Davis' high strikeout totals and the fact that his Orioles missed the playoffs will be negatives to the voters. In the end, I think the small market in Oakland hurts Donaldson's chances. Also, I think he might be just a bit too far below the 30 home run and 100 RBI thresholds in the voters' eyes. I'm going to give Davis the nod.

Finally, I need to round out my top five. For fifth, I'm going to check out the numbers of Max Scherzer, who most expect to win the AL Cy Young in 2013. Scherzer, after leading the league in Wins, base runners per inning pitched, and finishing in the top five of most other categories, grades out well with my system. While I think my system is flawed in the way it incorporates pitchers, Scherzer's points put him far enough ahead of the remaining candidates that I'm going to trust the numbers. Plus, given the love that Detroit players and pitchers have gotten in the MVP voting in recent years, I like his chances of finishing in the top 5. Bias for and against certain cities seems to be a real thing. Verlander won the award in 2011, and finished 8th in 2012. I think Scherzer's season fits in somewhere between those two.

AL MVP Prediction: Miguel Cabrera

2nd-5th (respectively): Mike Trout, Chris Davis, Josh Donaldson, Max Scherzer

Onto the NL. This, as I mentioned, seems to be a much closer race. I followed the same approach as with the AL race, including the pitcher assessment. In the end I was left with this result:

Player	WAR	R	RBI	HR	SB	AVG	Playoff	Ex	Def	Total
Kershaw	10	0.75	3	3.75	1.25	5	5			28.75
McCutchen	10	o	o		0.25	o	2.5		5	17.75
Goldschmidt	4	0.75	3.75	3.75		o		5		17.25
Molina	o					2	5	5	5	17
Carpenter	6	1.25				o	5		2.5	14.75
		W	IP	K	WHIP	ERA

Very interesting. You'll notice that the pitching categories show up on the bottom. They are weighted identically to their offensive counterpart. At this point I've morphed the 'Ex' category into an "appropriate intangible bonuses" column. For leading the NL in HRs and RBIs, plus the fact that he is perceived as an above average runner, I awarded Paul Goldschmidt the same bonus that I gave Davis in the AL. Yadier Molina gets a large bonus for the publicity that he receives as the best defensive catcher in baseball.

Despite the fact that I don't think the pitching stats fit into the system entirely accurately, I do like the results. Clayton Kershaw's dominance in nearly every pitching category of MVP-voting-value this season is not far off of Verlander's 2011 campaign. His final points are probably a bit bloated, but the idea of the system is to merely offer a framework from which to work of off. I like McCutchen to finish as the highest non-pitcher (or to win the award outright). He had an excellent season across the board, led the Pittsburgh renaissance, and plays a premium defensive position. Goldschmidt is hurt by the fact that his team missed the playoffs, but his offensive numbers are superb. I think he beats out Yadi.

Molina's numbers are comparable, but slightly below last season, when he finished 4th in the voting. As far as the two Cardinals go, I would be very surprised if Molina was deemed less valuable than any of his teammates. Hence, he beats out Carpenter. Carlos Gomez had an excellent year in Milwaukee and just missed the top 5 in my system. He could easily grab a number of MVP points and sneak into the top five, or better. But, for my prediction, I'm going to stick with these results. Kershaw is a risky choice for MVP, but I like his chances.   

NL MVP Prediction: Clayton Kershaw

2nd-5th (Respectively): Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter

I'll revisit my predictions in a few weeks. Now it's in the hands of the BBWAA.

This is Part II in a two part series, predicting the Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player Awards.  Check out the author's process by reading Part I.