NBA Preview Three-Pointer

This is Part I in a two-part series previewing the National Basketball Association season on Sports Business Society's Tipoff Week.  Click here to read the conclusion.

1. Can We Expect Anything from This Rookie Class?

No. Well the possibility is highly unlikely. Victor Oladipo would be the obvious answer, but he might not even start on a team that seems to have already booked its return trip to the lottery. Anthony Bennett has the skillset to provide some entertainment but will unlikely find many minutes on a team that wants to make the playoffs and already has a solid frontcourt of Earl Clark, Tristan Thompson and Andrew Bynum.

Almost everywhere you look lottery picks from this summer’s draft are second on the depth chart Otto Porter’s behind Trevor Ariza, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's behind behind Chauncey Billups and what Shabazz Muhammad lacks in commonsense he will also lack in minutes this year as he appears to have fallen to third at his position on Minnesota’s depth chart. At least the Bucks' Greek rookie can provide entertainment simply by people’s vain attempts to correctly pronounce his name. The one rookie who was likely going to get the best chance to put up numbers was Trey Burke, as the starting point guard for the Jazz, but now he’s out for a few months with a hand injury.

The two fleeting glimpses of hope for this rookie class are Cody Zeller and Ben McLemore. Zeller is slotted to start for Charlotte, although not too much should be expected from a production standpoint with The Black Hole (Al Jefferson) and Kemba taking most of the shots. McLemore should be somewhat of a focal point in Sacramento’s offense, the Kings’ unfortunate recent history of ruining players leaves me skeptical towards McLemore’s potential

2. Are There New Rivalries Brewing in the East?

As two of the league’s top teams, playing in the same division, the Bulls and Pacers will cross paths for what should be some hot-blooded affairs. The potential for bad blood between these two teams was escalated when Bulls star Derrick Rose overlooked the Pacers as a potential rival, stating that the Heat were the Bulls’ main concern in the Eastern Conference. The teams square off for the first time with a nationally televised game on November 6. This should set the tone for their next three games. The smart money is one at least one altercation this season. Rose’s comments won’t sit well with Indiana, and with the physical nature of their frontlines (Boozer, Hibbert, Noah, West), emotions could easily spill over.

Since LeBron first took his talents to South Beach, the Celtics and Heat have not liked each other one bit. It appears that KG and The Truth have taken this animosity with them to their new home in the Empire State. Most would assume that Brooklyn and their new starters would naturally most concern themselves with their crosstown rival. Up to this point, however, it appears that the Heat are on Brooklyn’s immediate radar. Heat players called for an apology from Garnett and Pierce over their treatment of Ray Allen, to which KG politely told LeBron to worry about his own team. The teams meet four times this season in games that appear to have a sudden extra meaning. The first of which comes opening week, November 1, on ESPN.            

Lastly, although not new, look for the Detroit-Cleveland rivalry to pick up for the first time since King James use to go at it with Rip Hamilton and the crew. Both teams seem poised for a run to end their postseason droughts and will likely fight each other for seeding at the bottom of the conference. If no extra-curricular activity arises from these two , at least their matchups will pin two of the league’s top up-and-coming PG’s against each other.

3. Sophomore Slump?

Although this rookie class lacks a certain oomph, last year’s showed some tremendous signs of promise. Damian Lillard, last year’s ROY, has all the makings of an NBA star. This year, his Blazers team brought in the help that D Lil. desperately needed. This help, should get Portland more wins, but look for Lillard’s production to drop with more offensive options and increase in viable backups at his position, C.J. McCollum and Mo Williams.

Harrison Barnes (aka The Black Falcon, aka HB-angout), had a coming out party during the Warriors’ playoff run last spring.  Two words will provide all the reason for his inevitable sophomore slump, Iguo Dala. Dub Nation's offseason acquisition will seriously reduce Barnes' minutes. 

The second year trio of Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond and Dion Waiters should carry the weight for 2012 draft class. All of whom are slotted to start and should see a quality amount of minutes based on a lack of depth for their teams at their respective positions. Of these three, look for Beal to have the most productive year, as he should be the secondary offensive option for the Wizards. No one else from this group will be asked to score at the same clip. 

This is Part I in a two-part series previewing the National Basketball Association season on Sports Business Society's Tipoff Week.  Click here to read the conclusion.

Bulls Expose Nets lack of shooting in Game 2

Gerald Wallace's shooting struggles have hurt the Nets

When the Miami Heat signed Lebron James and Chris Bosh in the Summer of 2010, they formed a "big 3" that consists of 3 superstar caliber players surrounded by a group of role players. The Nets pursued the same strategy this past offseason by re-signing Brook Lopez and Deron Williams to maximum salaries and trading for Joe Johnson, the third highest paid player in the league in terms of average salary. There are a few significant diferences between the roster construction of each franchise. First, the "big 3"of the Heat is much better than the "big 3" of the Nets. Furthermore, the Nets have two marginal players with big salaries, which limits their flexibility to make improvements. They signed Kris Humphries to a 2 year $24 million dollar deal this past offseason and he was relegated to the bench early in the season. His deal is only 2 years so it's not severely damaging. On the other hand, Gerald Wallace has a 4 year $40 million dollar deal and his contract and playing style could limit the Nets from becoming a legitimate contender in the next few seasons.

Modern NBA offenses are predicated on floor spacing and 3-point shooting. Being able to spread the floor with shooters is essential, particularly against stout defenses like the Bulls. The Nets starting lineup consists of three players who are non-threats from the 3-point line: Wallace, Reggie Evans, and Brook Lopez. Teams can get away with having a frontcourt player who likes to stay around the rim but it is hard to maintain a steady offense when a wing player is not a consistent shooter. The Bulls were aware of Wallace’s limited shooting ability (28.2% from 3PT this year per NBA.com) and they ignored him in order to concentrate on the Nets other threats like Deron Williams and Brook Lopez. 

In the video below, watch how Reggie Evans has no time to go up for a layup because Luol Deng has moved all the way from the corner to help on defense. Evans has no choice but to kick to Wallace in the corner, who can’t hit the wide open 3.

All game long the Bulls defenders were drifting away from the corners in order to defend the basket and the Nets could not make them pay. They tried playing Keith Bogans and Jerry Stackhouse (both of whom are better shooters than Wallace) but neither was able to fix the problem.

(Both videos from Synergy Sports)

The result was an 8-point win for Chicago that saw the Nets shooting 4-21 from the 3-point line. Because the Bulls crowded the paint so effectively, the Nets main scorers, Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, were unable to get to the rim and they combined to shoot 7-27.

Some may think that this analysis is an overreaction to one playoff loss. While it's true that the Nets won game 1 and generally had a successful offensive season, the Nets struggled against top defensive units all season long. For example, against Memphis, Miami, and Chicago (three of the top 7 defensive teams in terms of defensive efficiency per NBA.com) the Nets only averaged 83 PPG. That’s a pretty significant number considering Memphis, Miami, and Chicago combined, on average, to concede about 92 PPG during the regular season and the Nets averaged 97 PPG. It is evident that the Nets struggle against strong defenses and they will need to fix that problem to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Unfortunately for the Nets, their lack of flexibility will make it difficult for them to acquire quality role players in the upcoming offseason. It would be advisable for them to try to sign a relatively inexpensive 3-PT specialist in the free agency period. Randy Foye, Daniel Gibson, and Anthony Morrow are a few players who come to mind because none of them will command a salary that the Nets won’t be able to afford. Ironically, the Nets traded Morrow (who has the 11^th best 3-point percentage of all time per basketballreference.com) to acquire Joe Johnson. Forming a “big 3” will assuredly give a team star power, but doing so may make it necessary to sacrifice role players that play a key part in formulating a winning team.