The NHL Standings Without the Loser's Point

Breaking: Even without the loser's point, Columbus still sucks. Nashville is still good.

As the NHL regular season draws to a close, the attention will soon shift to the radically different, exponentially more intense Stanley Cup Playoffs. Similar to the level of play, the game itself will actually change come playoff time, and yes, I am talking about the elimination of the shootout in favor of the much more grueling, adrenaline-pumping sudden death overtime, as well as the end of awarding one point for an overtime loss.

While I understand the concept of the shootout, and giving a consolation point for an OT loss, especially in a regular season 82 games long, it isn't truly indicative of whether or not a team is best suited for postseason competition. Parity is important, and especially for a league looking to generate as much buzz as possible, keeping as many teams close to a playoff berth down the stretch run is critical. Unfortunately, the reality is that awarding one point for an overtime loss - and by using the shootout to determine otherwise tied games - the NHL isn't fully valuing teams' ability to succeed in the playoffs.

A deeper look after the jump.

To see what I'm talking about, take a look at the standings, and the point totals as of 3/25/12. Then take a look at that number in parenthesis. This number is the point total of each team given 0 points for an overtime loss and with shootout wins removed from their record completely.

Standings as of 3/25/12

Place-Team-Points (Playoff Points)

East
1-NYR 101 (86)
2-BOS 89 (70)
3-FLA 87 (62)
4-PIT 100 (72)
5-PHI 96 (80)
6-NJ 90 (62)
7-OTT 86 (66)
8-WAS 84 (72)
9-BUF 84 (60)
10-WPG 78 (62)
11-TB 75 (62)

West
1-STL 103 (86)
2-VAN 99 (76)
3-DAL 87 (68)
4-NSH 96 (80)
5-DET 95 (76)
6-CHI 92 (74)
7-PHO 87 (62)
8-LA 86 (62)
9-SJ 86 (60)
10-COL 86 (62)
11-CAL 83 (62)

Some distinct changes definitely standout. For one, each team's total points are drastically reduced. Without the inflation of elements not included in the playoffs, we can truly see how skilled a team is at collecting wins (the only thing that matters come May and June) and doing so without the aid of what boils down to essentially a skills competition.

In relying solely on a playoff type system, true separation among teams is had. Instead of being separated by 17 points between 1st and 8th in both the East and West, the difference is increased to a 24 point margin.

In the end, this little exercise is far from a perfect way to gauge which teams truly are suited for the playoffs, but it does shed a little light on what we can look for going forward. Of course there are still more games to be played, (more for some teams than others), but as of now, this is a solid indication of playoff-built contenders.

As far as my picks to win the cup, I like the Rangers in the East, and the Predators in the West. I wouldn't be surprised, though, to see both Philadelphia and Chicago, both relatively underrated teams in terms of point inflation and seeding, make a run, either.

Nets Trade their Lottery Ticket to a Title

The newest Net, Gerald Wallace, may have been a mistake

The NBA trade deadline came and went last week with the junior high-worthy gossip and drama surrounding a certain center from Orlando occupying much of the media spotlight. Part soap opera, part hostage situation, the impending threat of Dwight Howard seeking the greener pastures of a big market caused the Orlando Magic to offer their seven-time all-star everything short of renaming the franchise in his honor. This reportedly included Magic owner Richard Devos giving Howard control over the future fates of GM Otis Smith and Head Coach Ron Jeremy Stan Van Gundy. Thus if Howard has a perverse sense of humor, the rotund Van Gundy could be a member of the Magic dance squad come playoff time.

In the end, this sycophantic approach worked (kind of), and Howard agreed to remain in Orlando for at least the very foreseeable future, exercising a one-year option on his contract. So the Magic got their man (kind of) and whatever dignity the franchise lost along the way will be assuaged if Howard keeps putting up point and rebounding statistics that rival the ratio for perfect vision (20/20).

Yet while the Magic were the spectacle, another franchise, one equally desperate to retain a superstar, made a move that reeked of desperation worse than a teenager reeks of insecurity and Ax. And this team, unlike the Magic, aren’t likely to get their star.

Days before the deadline, the Nets acquired forward Gerald Wallace from the Trailblazers in exchange for the Nets first round draft pick. The Nets, owned by Russian eccentric Mikhail Prokhorov, are weary that their current point guard Deron Williams, will not accompany the team as they move into Brooklyn next year unless the Nets add more talent. After whiffing on a deal for Howard before the trade deadline, the Nets were desperate to bring in any marginally well-known name from around the league. And they gave up a likely top pick to do so.
Now New Jersey did at least include a clause that protects their rights to the draft pick if it happens to fall within the top three picks. This is important, for Anthony Davis, the undisputed top pick in the draft, is an overgrown man-child with the defensive prowess of a Howard and the ball handling skills of a three guard. Landing their ping-pong ball on the No. 1 position only to lose Davis due to the trade would be gut wrenching for the Nets and their hundreds of fans. Also, increasing Portland’s probability of obtaining the No. 1 pick to use on another highly touted center just seems cruel to everyone at this point.

But while Davis earns top prospect honors with distinction, this year’s draft class is abnormally deep, due to many of last year’s top players opting for another year of school instead of facing the threat of a locked out rookie season. Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones III watched from their respective dorm rooms as a parade of less talented international players, with names usually only heard in a World Cup telecast between Slovenia and Ghana, were seen shaking hands with David Stern within the first seven selections of the 2011 draft. Add in a particularly stacked freshman class that all seemed to play at Kentucky, and the protection New Jersey has with the first three picks does not guarantee the Nets will not miss out on an uber-talented young player by handing a potential No.4 – No. 10 pick to the Trailblazers. And with the Nets currently holding the sixth worst record in the league, the probability of “earning” and promptly losing an unprotected pick outside of the top three is 78.5%.

Thus, according to the mock draft orders of people in the know, acquiring Gerald Wallace will, in 78.5% likelihood, have cost the Nets the chance to select Barnes, Jones, Sullinger or freshman like Indiana’s Cody Zeller, Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Florida’s Bradley Beal who some describe as a cross between Ray Allen and Eric Gordon. All these players will be a decade fresher than the injury-prone Wallace whose good but rarely great output over the past eleven seasons gives him an on court production ceiling much lower than the potentials of the prospects listed above.

Would a rebuilding team rather have a battered Wallace or a fresh Allen/Gordon hybrid? And which would be more appealing Deron Williams, the middling star who should never be higher than the third or fourth scoring option on a contending team or a budding young prospect with racks on racks on racks of potential?

There have been successful teams, like last year’s championship Mavs, that surrounded a superstar (Nowitzki) with establish veterans in the general class of a Gerald Wallace (Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd). Yet this Mavs team had four, not one Gerald Wallaces.

Furthermore, the Mavs formula was an exception to the contemporary NBA blueprint on how to contend for a title. The true title contenders in both conferences, Miami, Chicago (East) and OKC, San Antonio, and both LA teams (West) have at least two perennial all-stars (Chicago’s Deng made first All-Star game this year but will likely make many more in the years to come). This is what separates the your Nuggets, 76’ers and Pacers from the teams with a legitimate shot of competing into June. This is why Lebron teamed up with Wade. This is why Durant and Westbrook will make sure their dynamic duo does not go the way of the Kobe and Shaq breakup. This is why Chris Paul was none too bummed with Commissioner Stern’s much maligned veto of the Lakers-Rockets-Hornets trade, for the five-time all-star point guard landed in the company of Blake Griffin, a star player in the process of becoming a superstar. Wallace, who did make the All-Star Game in 2010, has seen likely seen his best days behind him as the often injured veteran ages to the wrong side of 30. He will not be enough to keep Deron Williams from finding a team with an established fellow star (like in his hometown of Dallas), and without Williams, the Nets will have little appeal to Howard, if/when Howard decides to depart from Orlando. Yes Mr. Prokhorov could luck out and win the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, securing the wingspan and inside presence of an Anthony Davis to lure Williams to stay.

But New Jersey did not need a top three pick to find a constant 1st or 2nd team All-NBA-caliber talent. Chris Paul (4th), Russell Westbrook (4th) and Dwyane Wade (5th) were all selected outside of the top three in draft classes that were also considered deep.
The Nets will be moving to Brooklyn next year, and they desperately want illustrious stars to attract fans to the new stadium. This want has blinded them to how a team gets really good in the NBA. Every title-contender needs at least two Cadillacs on their roster, be it Lebron-Wade, Durant-Westbrook, Paul-Griffin or Kobe-Gasol.

Out of desperation and near-sightedness, the Nets gave up their lottery bid for a Cadillac, in exchange for a Nissan Ultima. This exchange should never occur. It makes for a mediocre basketball team and a pretty bad analogy.

Advice for Future Attendees of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

If you've read about the great memories made from the 2012 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, you're hopefully considering attending the 2013 version. If so, use this post as a resource. We asked our members what advice they would give to future attendees so that they could derive the greatest possible value from the conference. Read their thoughts after the jump.

Colin Dailey: Find panelists you want to speak and try to speak to them at times other than when they first get done their panel (when they're swarmed with a ton of people). If you are prepared to speak with them at any time, you'll see them in passing later in the conference, and approach them at that point. Therefore, you'll receive more of their attention, without being mixed into the crowd of everybody else (and you'll stand out more). Also, be open to checking out new panels, as you'll probably be surprised and find something useful from panels you're unfamiliar with (topics).

Michael Hendel: My advice would be that you have to be realistic about what you want and expect from events like this. There were thousands of students and people who wanted to get jobs and meet with the sports celebrities. These guys get "hit on" anytime they are out in public and it is unreasonable for anyone to think that spending two minutes talking about a sports topic or asking questions is enough to actually get an internship. What i would do next time is talk to the attendees more than the panelists. There were representatives from 28 out of 32 basketball teams at the conference, and more teams will eventually flock to statistical conferences such as this one in the future. Talking to people around the rooms is a way to both make contacts and enjoy your time.

Adam Kirsch:
-Know what you're talking about/do your research and have questions to ask speakers
-Talk to other attendees–their backgrounds and insight will surprise you and they can often give you valuable advice
-Take notes
-Keep track of business cards/contact information you may receive and follow up within a reasonable time–remember to be gracious and grateful
-Always carry yourself in a respectful and professional manner. This is much more than confidently smiling and shaking hands.

-You should also remember that every action is a direct reflection on you, your club and your school.

Reed Longo: My best piece of advice for anyone attending this conference is to become familiar with the panelists before the conference. If you know what they do professionally, it makes the panels much easier to comprehend. Also, you never know if you have a shared connection with that person. For example, I used LinkedIn to find shared connections I had with some panelists/attendees and it helped me break barriers and make conversation. If you just do some brief research before the weekend, not only will you be able to enjoy the panels more, but it'll help you network

Daniel Lowenthal: Advice for next year is to go to what interests YOU. I went to very few panels, and chose to go to more of the EOS speeches and research presentations, and I ended up getting way more out of the conference than I did last year, when we went to almost all of the panels.

Eric Maimon: Plan what panels your going to, know the speakers well, and don't discount the attendees, some of them are bigger than the panelists.

John Rodriguez: Go to the conference with an open mind and see as many panels as you can. Do not be afraid to approach anyone you admire and have something valuable to say to them, so that the conversation of as small as 20 seconds is meaningful. Do research on the speakers and take detailed notes of the panels so that you can go back to the speakers at the end of it all with something to take away, other than a picture.

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Thank you to all the ILRSMC members that attended the SSAC and contributed to this piece. We hope to see more of you next March!

Playoff Restructuring in Major League Baseball: Changing the Course of History?

MLB fans may be robbed of thrilling moments in the future

Some people consider Wednesday, September 28th, 2011 as the most thrilling day in MLB regular season history. In a matter of minutes, the Atlanta Braves missed the playoffs by completing a 10.5 game collapse that persisted throughout September; the Boston Red Sox followed suit by blowing a ninth inning lead in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles; and Evan Longoria propelled the Tampa Bay Rays into the playoffs as the Wild Card winner with a dramatic extra inning walk-off homer against the Yankees. Under the new MLB CBA agreement, the games that Atlanta, Boston, and Tampa Bay played that night would have been meaningless.

Major League Baseball agreed to expand its playoffs to a ten team format, increasing from the three division winners and a wild card spot in each league to one extra wild card team in both the American and National League. The two Wild Card teams, which will be the two teams with the best records who did not win their division, will face off in a one game playoff after the regular season concludes to determine which team will advance to the next round.

Those who condemn the new system point to the fact that this change would have prevented MLB’s most historic regular season moments from occurring. If the new agreement had been in place last year, the Red Sox would have played the Rays in a one game playoff and Evan Longoria’s late-game heroics would have been for naught. The Braves would have played the Cardinals in the one game playoff and, if they had beaten St. Louis, the Cinderella story of playoff hero David Freese and the 2011 Cardinals would never have existed. Likewise, the 163rd game of the 2009 season that pitted the Tigers against the Twins in a battle for the AL Central crown would never have taken place. Not to mention the fact that this classic game which sent Minnesota to the division series was deemed by Sports Illustrated as MLB’s Best Regular-Season Game of the 2000s.

So with all of the history that could potentially be erased under the new CBA agreement, why has MLB ultimately decided to revamp its playoff system?

The most significant business incentive for Bud Selig to modify MLB’s playoff alignment is to bring the thrill of October baseball to two extra markets every year, whether it’s to a large market such as Philadelphia or to an organization that has never experienced playoff baseball, such as the Washington Nationals.

Of course, critics will point to the unfairness of the new format, as a 95 win team that doesn’t win its division can work all season long to ultimately be knocked off by an 85 win team in the always unpredictable one-game playoff.

Another valid argument is that the infrequency of a one game playoff to determine who plays in October is what makes that final game so exciting and draws larger television audiences. After all, the final games of the 2011 season increased MLB’s ratings across the board and the Detroit-Minnesota matchup in 2009 was the most watched game of that season, drawing 6.543 million viewers.

At the end of the day, baseball fans will always wait with anticipation for the one play that will end a team’s season or lift a player to immortality. Under the new CBA agreement, millions of fans can mark this sure-to-be thrilling one game playoff down in their calendars every single year and witness the next Evan Longoria or David Freese carry his team to the promised land.

Memories: 2012 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

On Friday, March 2 and Saturday March, 3, over

20 Cornell ILRSMC members attended the sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The conference goal is to provide a forum for industry professionals (executives and leading researchers) and students to discuss the increasing role of analytics in the sports industry. MIT Sloan is dedicated to fostering growth in this arena, and the conference enriches opportunities for learning about the sports business world.

The club is proud to have sent such a large group to MIT in 2012, no doubt thanks to the great memories made at last year's event.

After the jump, read about some of our members' favorite moments from the 2012 SSAC.

Colin Dailey: The top highlights for me was getting to go up to people and expand on previous connections I generated at the Ivy sports symposium. I had great conversations with multiple important sports figures, and made strides toward a deeper connection and internship possibility. My favorite panel was the sports sponsorship and branding panel primarily because it was really intriguing and all of the panelists provided great insight, not just a couple of them. Additionally, I really enjoyed meeting and experiencing the true personality of some of these sports leaders.

Michael Hendel: Going to some of the research presentations and learning about the arduous and detailed work that some of these graduate students and professors have done to come up with fascinating theories. In one of the presentations, after thorough research, a group believed that trading Chris Paul for Deron Williams would have made sense for both teams. In another presentation, it was shown that home teams shoot a worse free throw percentage than the away teams because of psychological reasons. The home team actually feels more pressure because of the unnaturalness of silence.

Adam Kirsch:

-Talking to notables like Mark Shapiro, Eric Mangini and 49ers COO Paraag Marathe about the club and our projects
-Chatting about sports psychology with NFL defensive end Lawrence Jackson between panels
-Discussing the different functions within the industry with team employees in different capacities
-The Baseball Analytics and Franchises in Transition panels
-The opening panel, which featured two ILRies (Gary Bettman and Rob Manfred)

Reed Longo: There were many highlights over the weekend at MIT that made it such a great experience. However, the most memorable thing for me was sitting next to Lions DE Lawrence Jackson during the Brand Equity panel. Since it was mostly an older crowd, I kind of felt like I had to overcompensate with professionalism. Yet, when I was talking to Lawrence, it was a great change of pace to be able to kick it a bit and not resist the urge to say "dude" (which is hard enough for me to begin with). Our conversation was personal, as he gave me some great insight on comparing his days at USC, Seattle, Detroit, and the media's portrayal of his linemate Ndamukong Suh. I think anyone who heard him speak at the Coaching Analytics was impressed by his articulation and intelligence. Yet, what impressed me most was that he was recording the entire Brand Equity panel on his iPhone while taking detailed notes. There's no doubt that he will have a successful career after his playing days are over.

Daniel Lowenthal: The Trade Show was an unbelievable experience; truly unique and insightful, yet it absolutely felt like it was the first one of its kind (fist time at the conference at least.) I was the one who tweeted the coverage of it, and it really gave me some great experience in the field of sports journalism/summarization.

Eric Maimon: Networking with some of the panelists and attendees.

John Rodriguez: My favorite moments at the MIT Conference were hearing from and getting to meet both David Gill, CEO of Manchester United and Drew Carey, owner of the Seattle Sounders. One point that Carey made which I thought was really interesting is how teams like Real Madrid and Barcelona elect the president of the club every four years and how he has implemented that into his own MLS team and how he is pushing the rest of the league to do the same.

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Be sure to look for more posts concerning the club's experience at the MIT SSAC in the coming days!

The State of the Orlando Magic and the NBA Trade Deadline

The trend of the last few years in the NBA has been for superstars to either leave their teams for better situations or to threaten to leave their teams until they get what they want. Recently, general managers have seemed to learn from the mistakes of teams like Cleveland and Toronto, who received practically nothing in return when Lebron and Bosh left for Miami.

For example, the Jazz shipped Deron Williams out of town for two first round picks, Derrick Favors, and Devin Harris. Also, the Nuggets got rid of Carmelo Anthony for Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler in what seemed to be a solid package put together by the Knicks.

However, because of the new CBA, the Magic is in a unique scenario. They have the potential to offer Dwight Howard a maximum salary of 5 years $110 million, whereas all other teams can only offer 4 years and $81 million. He’ll be making a lot of money either way, but giving up $30 million and an extra year is difficult, no matter how you look at it. If the Magic can find some way to bring in a viable sidekick for Dwight (rumors about Monta Ellis have been swirling this week), than that should be their first option. If that doesn’twork out than they should look to trade him but only if they are getting a great package in return, something that exceeds what the Jazz and Nuggets got for their superstars.

Dwight is a once-in-a-lifetime big man, and it’d be better for the Magic to take their chances in free agency rather than trade Dwight for players and picks that will make them a lower-level playoff team. As the NBA becomes more perimeter and guard-oriented, the Magic possess a distinct advantage in having such a dominant big man. They shouldn’t give up that advantage unless they have a really strong feeling that he’s leaving in the summer.

Event Preview: Students in Sports Internship Panel

3/13 -- Ives 105 -- 4:30PM

Still seeking that summer job? Looking to learn about internship opportunities in sports? Want your questions about breaking into the business answered? Come by Ives 105 this Tuesday (3/13) from 4:30-5:15 pm.

Our Students in Sports Internship Panel will feature current Cornellians ready to share their experiences in industry internships. Presenters come from across the country and have worked in a number of different functions within the business.

The panel and discussion will last approximately thirty minutes and be followed by an informal career services presentation.

We hope to see you there!

ILRSMC At SSAC This Weekend

25 members of the Cornell ILR Sports Management Club have made the journey to MIT for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. We encourage you to follow all of the action on the club's twitter feed (this can also be viewed on the sidebar to the right) and on this blog over the weekend.