Nets Trade their Lottery Ticket to a Title

The newest Net, Gerald Wallace, may have been a mistake

The NBA trade deadline came and went last week with the junior high-worthy gossip and drama surrounding a certain center from Orlando occupying much of the media spotlight. Part soap opera, part hostage situation, the impending threat of Dwight Howard seeking the greener pastures of a big market caused the Orlando Magic to offer their seven-time all-star everything short of renaming the franchise in his honor. This reportedly included Magic owner Richard Devos giving Howard control over the future fates of GM Otis Smith and Head Coach Ron Jeremy Stan Van Gundy. Thus if Howard has a perverse sense of humor, the rotund Van Gundy could be a member of the Magic dance squad come playoff time.

In the end, this sycophantic approach worked (kind of), and Howard agreed to remain in Orlando for at least the very foreseeable future, exercising a one-year option on his contract. So the Magic got their man (kind of) and whatever dignity the franchise lost along the way will be assuaged if Howard keeps putting up point and rebounding statistics that rival the ratio for perfect vision (20/20).

Yet while the Magic were the spectacle, another franchise, one equally desperate to retain a superstar, made a move that reeked of desperation worse than a teenager reeks of insecurity and Ax. And this team, unlike the Magic, aren’t likely to get their star.

Days before the deadline, the Nets acquired forward Gerald Wallace from the Trailblazers in exchange for the Nets first round draft pick. The Nets, owned by Russian eccentric Mikhail Prokhorov, are weary that their current point guard Deron Williams, will not accompany the team as they move into Brooklyn next year unless the Nets add more talent. After whiffing on a deal for Howard before the trade deadline, the Nets were desperate to bring in any marginally well-known name from around the league. And they gave up a likely top pick to do so.
Now New Jersey did at least include a clause that protects their rights to the draft pick if it happens to fall within the top three picks. This is important, for Anthony Davis, the undisputed top pick in the draft, is an overgrown man-child with the defensive prowess of a Howard and the ball handling skills of a three guard. Landing their ping-pong ball on the No. 1 position only to lose Davis due to the trade would be gut wrenching for the Nets and their hundreds of fans. Also, increasing Portland’s probability of obtaining the No. 1 pick to use on another highly touted center just seems cruel to everyone at this point.

But while Davis earns top prospect honors with distinction, this year’s draft class is abnormally deep, due to many of last year’s top players opting for another year of school instead of facing the threat of a locked out rookie season. Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones III watched from their respective dorm rooms as a parade of less talented international players, with names usually only heard in a World Cup telecast between Slovenia and Ghana, were seen shaking hands with David Stern within the first seven selections of the 2011 draft. Add in a particularly stacked freshman class that all seemed to play at Kentucky, and the protection New Jersey has with the first three picks does not guarantee the Nets will not miss out on an uber-talented young player by handing a potential No.4 – No. 10 pick to the Trailblazers. And with the Nets currently holding the sixth worst record in the league, the probability of “earning” and promptly losing an unprotected pick outside of the top three is 78.5%.

Thus, according to the mock draft orders of people in the know, acquiring Gerald Wallace will, in 78.5% likelihood, have cost the Nets the chance to select Barnes, Jones, Sullinger or freshman like Indiana’s Cody Zeller, Kentucky’s Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Florida’s Bradley Beal who some describe as a cross between Ray Allen and Eric Gordon. All these players will be a decade fresher than the injury-prone Wallace whose good but rarely great output over the past eleven seasons gives him an on court production ceiling much lower than the potentials of the prospects listed above.

Would a rebuilding team rather have a battered Wallace or a fresh Allen/Gordon hybrid? And which would be more appealing Deron Williams, the middling star who should never be higher than the third or fourth scoring option on a contending team or a budding young prospect with racks on racks on racks of potential?

There have been successful teams, like last year’s championship Mavs, that surrounded a superstar (Nowitzki) with establish veterans in the general class of a Gerald Wallace (Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd). Yet this Mavs team had four, not one Gerald Wallaces.

Furthermore, the Mavs formula was an exception to the contemporary NBA blueprint on how to contend for a title. The true title contenders in both conferences, Miami, Chicago (East) and OKC, San Antonio, and both LA teams (West) have at least two perennial all-stars (Chicago’s Deng made first All-Star game this year but will likely make many more in the years to come). This is what separates the your Nuggets, 76’ers and Pacers from the teams with a legitimate shot of competing into June. This is why Lebron teamed up with Wade. This is why Durant and Westbrook will make sure their dynamic duo does not go the way of the Kobe and Shaq breakup. This is why Chris Paul was none too bummed with Commissioner Stern’s much maligned veto of the Lakers-Rockets-Hornets trade, for the five-time all-star point guard landed in the company of Blake Griffin, a star player in the process of becoming a superstar. Wallace, who did make the All-Star Game in 2010, has seen likely seen his best days behind him as the often injured veteran ages to the wrong side of 30. He will not be enough to keep Deron Williams from finding a team with an established fellow star (like in his hometown of Dallas), and without Williams, the Nets will have little appeal to Howard, if/when Howard decides to depart from Orlando. Yes Mr. Prokhorov could luck out and win the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, securing the wingspan and inside presence of an Anthony Davis to lure Williams to stay.

But New Jersey did not need a top three pick to find a constant 1st or 2nd team All-NBA-caliber talent. Chris Paul (4th), Russell Westbrook (4th) and Dwyane Wade (5th) were all selected outside of the top three in draft classes that were also considered deep.
The Nets will be moving to Brooklyn next year, and they desperately want illustrious stars to attract fans to the new stadium. This want has blinded them to how a team gets really good in the NBA. Every title-contender needs at least two Cadillacs on their roster, be it Lebron-Wade, Durant-Westbrook, Paul-Griffin or Kobe-Gasol.

Out of desperation and near-sightedness, the Nets gave up their lottery bid for a Cadillac, in exchange for a Nissan Ultima. This exchange should never occur. It makes for a mediocre basketball team and a pretty bad analogy.