Tuesday, March 27, 2012

The NHL Standings Without the Loser's Point

Breaking: Even without the loser's point, Columbus still sucks. Nashville is still good.

As the NHL regular season draws to a close, the attention will soon shift to the radically different, exponentially more intense Stanley Cup Playoffs. Similar to the level of play, the game itself will actually change come playoff time, and yes, I am talking about the elimination of the shootout in favor of the much more grueling, adrenaline-pumping sudden death overtime, as well as the end of awarding one point for an overtime loss.

While I understand the concept of the shootout, and giving a consolation point for an OT loss, especially in a regular season 82 games long, it isn't truly indicative of whether or not a team is best suited for postseason competition. Parity is important, and especially for a league looking to generate as much buzz as possible, keeping as many teams close to a playoff berth down the stretch run is critical. Unfortunately, the reality is that awarding one point for an overtime loss - and by using the shootout to determine otherwise tied games - the NHL isn't fully valuing teams' ability to succeed in the playoffs.

A deeper look after the jump.

To see what I'm talking about, take a look at the standings, and the point totals as of 3/25/12. Then take a look at that number in parenthesis. This number is the point total of each team given 0 points for an overtime loss and with shootout wins removed from their record completely.

Standings as of 3/25/12

Place-Team-Points (Playoff Points)

East
1-NYR 101 (86)
2-BOS 89 (70)
3-FLA 87 (62)
4-PIT 100 (72)
5-PHI 96 (80)
6-NJ 90 (62)
7-OTT 86 (66)
8-WAS 84 (72)
9-BUF 84 (60)
10-WPG 78 (62)
11-TB 75 (62)

West
1-STL 103 (86)
2-VAN 99 (76)
3-DAL 87 (68)
4-NSH 96 (80)
5-DET 95 (76)
6-CHI 92 (74)
7-PHO 87 (62)
8-LA 86 (62)
9-SJ 86 (60)
10-COL 86 (62)
11-CAL 83 (62)

Some distinct changes definitely standout. For one, each team's total points are drastically reduced. Without the inflation of elements not included in the playoffs, we can truly see how skilled a team is at collecting wins (the only thing that matters come May and June) and doing so without the aid of what boils down to essentially a skills competition.

In relying solely on a playoff type system, true separation among teams is had. Instead of being separated by 17 points between 1st and 8th in both the East and West, the difference is increased to a 24 point margin.

In the end, this little exercise is far from a perfect way to gauge which teams truly are suited for the playoffs, but it does shed a little light on what we can look for going forward. Of course there are still more games to be played, (more for some teams than others), but as of now, this is a solid indication of playoff-built contenders.

As far as my picks to win the cup, I like the Rangers in the East, and the Predators in the West. I wouldn't be surprised, though, to see both Philadelphia and Chicago, both relatively underrated teams in terms of point inflation and seeding, make a run, either.

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