The Magic Touch: Premier League Broadcasting Revenues

An absorbing Premier League season ended this month, with Manchester City lifting the trophy after an undramatic win over Newcastle United. No miracle came for Liverpool, as millions of fans of Reds were left dissapointed. However, they should be delighted to see that in the table of broadcasting payments to clubs this season, Liverpool rank the first, gaining extraordinary £97.5m, even greater than that of Manchester City, which will substantially help them land several quality players this summer for their next season's campaign.

In contrast, at the end of last season, they just obtained £54.8m from braodcasting revenues. This significant surge does not solely happen to top rankers. Surprisingly, even Cardiff, the bottom club this season, earn more TV cash than champions Man Utd did in 2013. Why there is a dramatic increase in broadcasting revenue this season? And how is the TV income split and calculated? We’ll look for these answers soon.

First of all, revenue streams for a professional soccer club fall under three major headings: matchday income, commercial receipts, and broadcasting rights. The money a soccer club takes in on match day is the traditional source of revenue, consisting of money paid before the season by season ticket holders, ticket money from home and away fans, and hospitality packages. The commercial revenue mainly falls into three streams: sponsorship, merchandising, and some ancillary services. Compared to these two streams, broadcasting earnings have become increasingly critical to each club, especially for clubs at bottom of the table. The reason why this part has been also vital now is that Premier League signed new blockbuster contracts to sell broadcasting rights, which have brought unprecedented financial reward for clubs.

In June last year, Premier League owners announced new £3.018bn deal for domestic live rights with Sky and BT for the three seasons from 2013-14, with Sky paying £2.28 billion and BT paying £748 million. Meanwhile, Match of the Day highlights was bought by BBC for £178m. It is estimated that combined with overseas contracts, Premier League, the richest league across the globe, is about to get £5bn broadcasting fee altogether for the next three seasons, an increase from £1.773bn for the previous three-year deal. According to PREMIERLEAGUE.COM , all 20 Premier League clubs were paid around £1.56bn from broadcasting revenue this season, a 60 percent increment compared to the £972million of television revenue the previous season. So how is this large "pie" divided?

In general, £1.56bn income was firstly divided into overseas TV income, domestic TV income and central commercial revenue. As stated by official statistics, after this season, each club equally gained £26.3m for overseas TV income, with a total of £525.9m altogether, and each also equally earned £4.27m for central commercial revenue. Dividing the domestic TV income is a little bit more complicated than overseas one and central commercial earning.

In terms of this model, it takes into consideration three factors. 50% of the sum is shared equally by each club, 25%, the merit payment, is based on finishing position in the league, with £1.2m paid for every place a club finishes in the league, and the remaining 25%, the facility fee, is derived from the numbers of domestic live TV appearance, with £750 thousand paid for every appearance. For example, Manchester City, the champion of this season, got approximately £24m merit payment, as £1.2m for each place times 20 teams. Liverpool were televised 28 times in 2013-14, so they obtained £21m facility fee.

In sum, the Premier League is pursuing a more competitive manner to distribute the broadcasting income. We can tell this trend by the calculation that Liverpool’s broadcasting revenue is 1.57 times more than bottom earners Cardiff, a ratio which is the smallest in all Europe's top leagues. As a result, the gap between each club in the league, which has been funded much more evenly than before, has been much closer, with the Premier League becoming more and more exciting.

Teams on the Rise Trilogy - Part 3: New York Mets (MLB)

I am officially granting my fellow Mets fans permission to take the paper bags off of their heads. Kind of brings you back to the Piazza days, right? Get used to it, because things are changing. Queens is ready for the return of the Amazin’s, and they won’t have to wait for long.

The Mets have ditched the “sign every big name you can get for way too much money” approach that almost worked for them in the past decade with guys like Louis Castillo, Mo Vaughn, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran (if you have a problem with this mention, watch the end of game 7 of the 2006 NLCS and the Septembers of 2007 and 2008), Jason Bay--tell me when to stop. Now, they have developed very solid players that can serve as a foundation for this team for the next decade, and who are certainly something to be excited about.

The foundation lies in pitching.

Matt Harvey pitched like a Cy Young caliber guy for most of the 2013 season--his second year in the bigs. In fact, his 2.27 ERA earned him fourth in votes for the award despite an early exit in August with an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery. The injury was devastating, but pitchers have proven to be able to rebound from the surgery (see Tommy John himself, who pitched another 14 successful seasons after receiving the surgery). At a young age, Matt Harvey is a perfect candidate for a successful return. Fortunately for the Mets, this success will now come at a lower price.

There were discussions of Harvey approaching $200 million territory if he could maintain his success for a tiny bit longer before he got hurt. If this were the case, owner Fred Wilpon--who has experienced serious debt since the recession--would probably not be willing to keep Harvey long-term. Harvey will have to settle for less money, of course, and it is very possible that he could be in Queens for the majority of a long career. As a 25 year old guy with remarkable talent, that is great news for the Mets.

The rest of the Mets’ rotation is equally promising. Zack Wheeler is a 23 year old stud who earned an impressive 3.42 ERA in his rookie campaign. He has a diversity of pitches which include a four-seam and two-seam fastball that averages out in the mid-90s. He has the making of a future ace, and is going to be very willing to sign an extension with the Mets if offered one during the 2014 season. If the Mets can lock him down, I see the Harvey-Wheeler combination as the best 1-2 punch in baseball for a good portion of the next decade.

To add on to that, 27 year old Jon Niese has established himself with ERA’s of 3.40 in 2012, 3.71 in 2013, and 1.82 this year. The Mets have him under a strong contract that pays him approximately $5 million a year and gives them the option of keeping him under that contract until 2018.

Dillon Gee is another 27 year old guy who is coming off his strongest season last year, where he earned a 3.62 ERA and a winning record with around 200 innings pitched. He has started this season off strong as well, and will not be such a costly guy to keep around. For a guy who can be fourth or even fifth in the rotation, he is actually pretty impressive.

With four really promising guys who can go another 10 years at least, we look to the farm system and find another two very intriguing options in Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero (numbers 1 and 3 on the Mets’ Top 20 Prospects List of 2014). Get one of those two to be a franchise guy, and the Mets’ rotation could be one of the top rotations in baseball in the upcoming years.

You need to score runs too--something the Mets have been struggling to do in the last few seasons. They’ve ranked 23rd and 25th in runs in last two years, so why believe that anything is going to change?

We have to start with the captain. David Wright is everything, with a career average surpassing .300 and no signs of slowing down. The veteran will be in Queens through 2020, after signing the largest contract in Mets’ history (8 years/approx. $138 million). He’s not a concern, and neither--I argue--is one other member of New York’s infield.

Daniel Murphy hits the ball harder than anyone. He has an incredible knack of hitting line drives, and with a solid glove as well, he’s a guy that joins Wright as the core position players in New York’s present and future. He’s getting better every year, and is currently hitting .320 this season. A career .292 hitter, that number is going to continue to climb for years to come. The Mets have to ensure that those numbers climb while he’s in Queens. He is underpaid at $5.7 million this season after signing a one-year deal in January, and will be eligible for arbitration in the offseason. The Mets have to sign him long-term, and with back-to-back seasons of new contracts for Murph, I am confident that both sides want that to happen.

Curtis Granderson, Eric Young Jr., and Chris Young are not long-term options for the Mets. 28-year-old Lucas Duda, 27-year-old Eric Campbell, 25-year-old Juan Lagares, 25-year-old Travis d’Arnaud, and 24-year-old Ruben Tejada are. Duda is a hard hitter, but with a career-high of 15 HR’s in a season, his mid-.200 batting average isn’t going to cut it. If he can find his power, he can be a solid hitter 5th in the line-up. Eric Campbell and Lagares are new to the big leagues, but with averages thus far of .455 and .304, expectations are rightfully high. Travis d’Arnaud is inexperienced, and is batting like it, but with outstanding minor league numbers, this player who was named number 6 on MLB’s Top 100 Prospects list last year may be a solid option for New York. Finally, Ruben Tejada is a tough case. He has sparks of brilliance, but also has a long record of weak play. He’s young, and only time will tell how he develops. I can’t offer much more than that.

I can spew out names that are coming up in the farm system for New York--Dominic Smith, Wilmer Flores, Amed Rosario--but there is no way to predict future success. I will say that the Mets’ farm system is ranked to be one of the top of all organizations. With incredible pitching, the Mets are going to need a couple of guys to come out in the next few years that can help out Murphy and Wright. They need to stop wasting money on old, high-profile guys like Curtis Granderson. They have the pitching, they need to get a couple of solid, young outfielders to make their line-up respectable. And if they can improve their line-up like I expect, I think the Mets are going to be a force in the NL for years to come.

Event Recap: Union Days '14

This post was written by Taylor Kosakoff, Director of Career Services for the Cornell Sports Business Society.

On Thursday, April 10th, I spoke on behalf of the Cornell ILR Sports Business Society for the annual event, “Union Days”, in the School of Industrial and Labor Relations. “Union Days” is an event sponsored by the Worker Institute at Cornell, which addresses current labor movement issues in various industries. The event I spoke at was titled, “Fighting for Equality in Education, Sports, and the Fashion Industry.”

I was called upon to address the background of the Northwestern football players’ attempt to unionize and the ramifications of this historic event. The reason I was chosen to speak on the panel was because of the research I conducted on this topic for an article that I wrote for the Cornell ILR Sports Business Society’s magazine, Sports Inc., earlier this semester. Although there were many prominent figures in the labor movement on the panel, the speakers that participated in the Northwestern discussion were two players on Cornell’s football team, senior quarterback Jeff Mathews and senior outside linebacker Taylor Engstrom.

The Northwestern football players’ attempt to unionize is a significant development in the labor movement, and could have a meaningful impact on the future of the NCAA and its relationship with student athletes. Previously, students have not had success in their attempts to be treated as employees of their universities. This recent effort to organize demonstrates however, that a change may be on the horizon for student athletes. Led by Northwestern quarterback Kain Colter, the students achieved a significant breakthrough by receiving a decision from a Regional Director of the National Labor Relations Board which gave the Northwestern football players employee status. 

Colter and his teammates are trying to gain representation for the student-athletes by the College Athletes Players Association (CAPA), in order to secure benefits that they believe college football players deserve. Specifically, Colter and the CAPA are seeking medical cost coverage for players who sustain injuries during games or practices. Other benefits that they are attempting to secure include ease on transfer restrictions and security of scholarships after injury. Compensation is not a topic of discussion currently and is not the main focus of this movement, but could be a goal in the future. Colter and the CAPA believe that the players deserve more than what they are getting, especially when compared to the millions of dollars the NCAA and universities are making off the efforts by these student-athletes.

The discussion of the Northwestern football players was the final segment of the event. I discussed how the attempt by Northwestern’s football team to unionize could revolutionize the NCAA. This initial step, with the leadership of Colter, may be the impetus for other teams to join this initiative to gain more rights for themselves on the football field. This attempt may even expand to other college sports and include women’s teams. If the student athletes are ultimately deemed employees, there could be a difference in what rights these players may have due to their enrollment in public and private universities, with different laws regarding public and private employees. While there is support for the players’ initiative, many people oppose the idea of unionization and believe that it may ruin the entertainment of the NCAA and college sports.

To see how college football players themselves feel about the Northwestern football team’s attempt to unionize, Jeff Mathews and Taylor Engstrom provided their perspectives as student athletes. It was especially interesting to hear college athletes from Cornell talk about the labor movement from Cornell because players are not allowed to receive athletic scholarships in the Ivy League. Both Mathews, who recently signed with the Atlanta Falcons, and Engstrom, held similar views about college football players trying to unionize.

Both were intrigued by the movement and believed that medical cost coverage for injuries is a benefit that the NCAA should provide for student athletes. However, both student athletes stated that they did not want to be compensated for their play because they think that this would diminish the enjoyment of college football and the relationship between students and the university that they cherish. Matthews and Engstrom both emphasized that they feel lucky to attend such a prominent university as Cornell, and that they play on the football team and devote more hours than expected because they enjoy playing football.

This event was an interesting way to see how a topic from the sports world could be such a major factor in a discussion of the labor movement. It was intriguing to hear the perspectives of two of Cornell’s most prominent football players who both agreed that they would never want to be compensated for their college play, although they do not receive athletic scholarships in the Ivy League. Their views are similar to those of Kain Colter and his teammates, who are pursuing employee status primarily to secure medical cost coverage. There is a long way to go before a final resolution of the matter, and it will be fascinating to see how this case impacts the future of the NCAA.

This post was written by Taylor Kosakoff, Director of Career Services for the Cornell Sports Business Society.

Blogger Roundtable: 2014 NFL Draft First Round Reactions

The first round of 2014 NFL Draft has come and gone. The hype and dramatic build up was tremendous as always and the first round did not disappoint. We saw everything from stars falling to surprising trades to some pretty big reach picks. All in all, 32 dreams were made a reality on Thursday night and they I'm sure they all cannot wait to get on the field for their very first NFL game.

We asked our bloggers for their reaction to the hectic first round that was. Here is how they responded:

Stephen Rosen, Assistant Editor- Mike Mayock

The highlight of the draft without question was the genius that is Mike Mayock. The NFL Network draft analyst never ceases to amaze me with his ability to predict what is going to happen seconds before it actually does. Starting at 3, with Mayock suggesting Blake Bortles could get drafted by the Jaguars all the way to the suggestion that Marcus Smith may go at 26 to the Eagles, Mayock was amazing. He was without a doubt the round 1 MVP.

Matt Hakimian, Featured Blogger- Quarterbacks

Heading into the draft, I was really interested to see where the big three quarterbacks would wind up. Bortles to Jacksonville was a pretty big reach, especially considering how a guy like Manziel could have filled plenty of their seats. The Browns trading up with their later first rounder to take Johnny Football was an awesome move that I think will work out extremely well for them. Lastly, Teddy Bridgewater landed in a good spot with a Minnesota offense that already features Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson. 

Max Fogle, Editor-in-Chief- Running Backs

For the second straight year, no running backs were picked in the first round.  We all know that running backs are relatively less valuable in the new NFL, but it is still weird to see tight ends getting popped in the first half of the first round, and see players capable of handling the ball 25+ times a game having to wait until round 2.  The pro game (and the college game) has changed so much just in the last decade.

John Martin, Blog Contributor- St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns

Two teams that really impressed me in the first round of the draft were the St. Louis Rams and the Cleveland Browns. The Rams get two huge players to bolster their front line, Greg Robinson on offense and Aaron Donald on defense. While these two picks may not be enough to make serious noise in the NFC West, it is definitely a step in the right direction. Then the Cleveland Browns moved back five spots and still got Justin Gilbert, who many considered the top defensive back in this year's draft as well as a first round pick in next year's draft. Then of course they got Johnny Football who fell down the board. Many experts have their concerns about Manziel and Cleveland hasn't exactly been a hotspot for developing quarterbacks, but getting such a talented player with the 22nd pick is a steal.

Be sure to comment below to let us know your opinion.

California Chrome: The Horse that Horse Racing Needs, Not the One it Deserves

California Chrome ran away with it at the Kentucky Derby

NOTE: The following is an attempt to write about a sport that America cares about only 3 times every year. It is an incredibly uninformed post, but it is speaking for all of you: the American public who is ready to fall in love with horse racing.

The Kentucky Derby is referred to as the "most exciting 2 minutes in sports."  That is a pretty bold statement for a sport that is unknown to most of the country, and is mostly treated as an excuse for college frat boys to get drunk and pretend to know about the pedigree and training of thoroughbred horses.  This is by no means an indictment on said frat boys.  It is a plea for more people to follow this sport.

Horse Racing is a sport that is currently based around copious alcohol consumption and degenerates gambling their lives away, all under the veil of a sophisticated society.  They dress nicely, wear big hats and come from an incredible amount of family money, but the real fans of Horse Racing are no different than you and I.

The Kentucky Derby was run last Saturday, May 3, on the first Saturday in May as it is every year. The Run for the Roses is the most historic race in thoroughbred racing and is an excuse for the rich and famous to come out and party; under the veil of high class.  Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Wes Welker and other athletic A-listers joined the party, and had the opportunity to witness arguably the best horse of the last decade walk to a Derby title.

California Chrome was the odds on favorite to win the Run for the Roses and went off at 5/2.  The favorite for most of the year, the 3 year old Colt came into Churchill Downs as a huge name after blowing away the field at the Santa Anita Derby.  Oddsmakers and fans of the sport said that California Chrome was and is the best chance for a Triple Crown winner in recent memory.  California Chrome made the race look easy, and jockey Victor Espinoza guided the Colt seamlessly around the track.  It was a beautiful site that is drastically under appreciated in current society.

A horse has not won the Triple Crown since Affirmed did it in 1978.  Many have said it was impossible, that it could not be done anymore, that too many horses are too fast to get beaten three times consecutively. (That is what I imagine they would say, who the heck actually knows).  I write to you, to implore you to root for California Chrome to win the Preakness Stakes in May, and then the Belmont in June.  Horse Racing is a sport that is an excuse for the rich and famous to gamble and drink excessively, without anybody judging.  Everybody should treat each race like that, gamble their lives away (don't actually do that, I can't have that on my conscience) and have a grand ole time.

California Chrome is the exception and not the rule, and a Triple Crown possibility like this cannot merely fall by the wayside.

Event Recap: Team Side Innovation

On March 25, 2014, the Cornell ILR Sports Business Society presented “Team Side Innovation”, a digital panel featuring alumni sports executives Tim McDermott ’95, Eric Kussin ’01, and Jason Pearl ’91. The video of the event can be found below as well as on YouTube.

McDermott, Chief Marketing Innovation Officer for the Philadelphia 76ers, emphasized three major areas in his field— brand, fans and revenue. Kussin, Vice President of Ticket Sales for the New Jersey Devils, oversees the service staff along with working to increase ticket sales. As Managing Vice President, Sponsorship and New Business Development for the San Francisco Giants, Pearl is committed to solidifying a passionate fan base regardless of wins and losses.
 

Tim McDermott '95:

McDermott highlighted the importance of building a deep emotional brand.

“The best brands create a brand that is independent of wins and losses and is independent to a certain degree of players,” McDermott described. “That’s sometimes hard to do but players come and go. My perspective is to not necessarily build brands that are just about players.”

McDermott also touched on the growing use of digital platforms in the marketing field. According to McDermott, it is not about your digital strategy. It is about how you are marketing in a digital world.

For example, in the 1990’s companies created an online version of their business, putting an “e” in front of the company name. But it shouldn’t be like this, McDermott points out. “It’s about a new way of doing business in a digital paradigm,” he explains.

McDermott made clear that core business objectives must be maintained. Reshaping the brand simply because you are using a different means to market the brand is not the correct way to handle a situation.

Eric Kussin '01:
 

Kussin works to build a brand that will keep fans committed for the long run as well. Despite being successful on ice, the Devils have had consistent trouble selling out. Kussin is dedicated to rebuilding the brand and forming a new fan base by getting the word out about how passionate the new coaching staff is.

According to Kussin, fans want to know that even tough the team is at a difficult time selling, there are people within the organization who are committed to the long haul. In his perspective of the growing digital world, he stresses that social media should be used to collect information about fans.

“There is a certain piece of social media where fans want to feel like they are getting special content, but they do not want to be hounded about ticket sales,” said Kussin.

Ticket sales must be done with outside of social media. However, social media can be used as an effective tool for collecting information on the types of people that are a part of the fan base. A unique way to learn more about the fans is to create contests so that the winners can be put in direct contact with the marketing department.

Jason Pearl '91:

Pearl has a similar take on the matter in that building a fan base should not only be about wins and losses.

According to Pearl, there is no doubt that numbers speak for themselves. However, it is imperative that fans leave the stadium feeling like they had a good time regardless of the score. Pearl works to build a partnership to leverage technology, sustainability, and philanthropy.

With this, Pearl is working on building a sustainable and edible garden in a sports facility. The garden will be less of a means to feed the fans, but more of a place fans can gather and where sponsors can “elevate their platform when it comes to wellness, ” claimed Pearl.

Part 2: How to Predict Postseason Success in Baseball

Wouldn't it be nice to predict the next time your team will hoist the Commissioner's Trophy?

While Part 1 looked at driving in runs without hitting home runs, the second hypothesis has more to do with hitting the league's most elite pitchers in the postseason. Will this hypothesis lead to some statistically significant results?


Performance Against Top Pitchers

Hypothesis

Against top-line starters and relievers, it is very difficult to hit home runs, so my theory is that teams that have a more simplistic batting approach will have a better opportunity against these very good pitchers. Also, because a team is very likely to face great pitching in the postseason, I also hypothesize that teams that face good pitchers (I have categorized “top pitchers” as those who finish in the top 20 of ERA minus, or ERA-, as calculated by Fangraphs) more often and/or have more success against them (in terms of runs scored per nine innings) are more likely to have playoff success.

Results

By hand, I compiled the top 20 starting pitchers in terms of ERA- every year from 2003-2012, and then used Baseball Almanac to record every game these pitchers played against teams who made the playoffs that year. I compiled total innings, total runs scored, total games and runs scored (not just earned runs) per 9 innings for each team each year. The reasoning behind looking at all runs, and not just earned runs, was because runs of any kind are so hard to come by in the postseason, or when facing a top pitcher, and even if a run is unearned, most of the time the opposing team would still need to string together a couple of hits to allow that unearned run to score.

When I finished compiling data on team performances against top 20 pitchers, I ran individual regression analyses with PV being the outcome variable, and these new statistics being the predictors. However, no single statistic correlated to having a high PV. Even when using multiple predictors with the top 20 pitching stats, there was still no significant correlation.

Conclusion

Based on the results of my tests of these two hypotheses, I unfortunately did not find any significant regression models that could predict PV from any of these statistics, I was not hugely surprised by this outcome for a few reasons. Because I only looked at playoff teams in the past ten years (many of the statistics I used in these models were not compiled before then), my sample size was smaller than ideal to start with. Also, there is high multicollinearity among so many of these statistics. This means that it was it was difficult to interpret the individual coefficients.

Also, having too many predictors, or controlling for too many variables, makes it extremely difficult to find a model that is both significant, and that makes sense from a baseball perspective. There were a few interesting findings, such as how LDp is marginally correlated with playoff wins (but not correlated with playoff series wins), but for the most part, no major discoveries were made.

Possible Improvements

One of the changes I could have made included how I calculated the top 20 pitchers statistics. I chose the number 20 randomly, but I also compiled the top 20 pitchers regardless of league. In hindsight, I probably should have compiled the top 20 pitchers from both the American and National Leagues in each year. Also, maybe there is a better statistic than “runs per 9 innings” to gauge how well teams do against these top pitchers. Also, when my second hypothesis failed, I started to compile 28 new statistics from Fangraphs’s “high leverage situations” split. I originally tried this because essentially all playoff batting situations can be considered “high leverage.”

However, these statistics were compiled from late and close game situations, rather than ability to drive in runs without hitting home runs, which is what my two hypotheses were related to. My time might have been better spent looking at statistics with runners in scoring position. Those kinds of statistics would have been more relevant to my hypotheses, as driving in runners in scoring position is not only the most effective way to score off top pitchers, but it is also a skill that requires the batter to shorten his swing, and have a more simplistic batting approach. As I continue this research in the future, I will take into account all of these factors in my quest to find a formula for postseason success in Major League Baseball. 

Part 1: How to Predict Postseason Success in Baseball



Just how did the Red Sox get past the Rays and Tigers in 2013?

Introduction

“They got hot at the right moment.” “They’re just lucky they peaked in October.” “It was just meant to be.”

These are all things that have been said about recent World Series winners. Ever since Major League Baseball switched to its current three-division system (and after adding a second wild card in 2012), it has made it more difficult for teams with the best records to win it all. This is because probably more than any other sport, baseball’s playoffs are so much different than its regular season.

Baseball’s 162-game regular season is a marathon of endurance and mental toughness. On the other hand, the playoffs are a sprint, with the winner often times being a team that by all traditional metrics (such as wins and winning percentage) is inferior. However, it is extremely difficult to predict when such a team will go on a World Series run. Even though there are several metrics to measure a player’s overall value to his team (such as WAR, or Wins Above Replacement), there is not a lot when it comes to statistics or groups of statistics that can best predict postseason success.

Michael Lewis’s Moneyball introduced the importance of on-base percentage (OBP) to many baseball fans, but I have determined through a simple regression analysis that statistic alone does not correlate to team postseason success. The general consensus among fans, commentators, and analysts is that having dominant pitching, particularly starting pitching, is the key to advancing far in the playoffs.

I agree that the most important variable on a playoff team is their starting pitching, but pitching alone doesn’t win you the World Series either. The 2013 postseason saw the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS beat the Detroit Tigers, a team that had what was considered to be the most dominant starting rotation in baseball. This was after they beat another team with excellent pitching, the Tampa Bay Rays, in the previous series. In a sport that has metrics to measure everything from speed on the base paths to the strength of an outfielder’s arm, there is no accepted metric that can accurately and consistently predict postseason success based on regular season performance. My goal was to see if I could find such a measure.

This is not a simple task. In an October 2013 article for ESPN’s Grantland, Rany Jazayerli wrote, “Trying to find the magic formula for postseason success has been the sabermetric community's version of trying to turn lead into gold: Many have tried, but none have entirely succeeded.” I first came up with the idea for this project after angrily watching the New York Yankees over the past decade consistently be one of the best teams in the league, but then lose in the postseason (often in in the division series).

Most fans and analysts pointed to the Yankees’ lack of quality starting pitchers post-2003 to why they couldn’t win in the playoffs after winning four of five World Series from 1996 to 2001. However, the Atlanta Braves, led by their dominating pitching trio of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, had even more trouble in the postseason, winning only one World Series title from 1992 to 2005, despite winning the NL East title in all fourteen years. It amazed me how these teams could consistently dominate their respective divisions and leagues for 162 games, only to come out flat in a five or seven game series. It made me wonder if there were hints in a playoff team’s regular season statistics that could predict a successful postseason run.

For this research, I have defined postseason success as “playoff value” or PV. A PV of 1 means losing in the division series, 2 means losing in the Championship Series, 3 is losing in the World Series, and 4 is winning the World Series. Therefore, in order to find statistics that can predict postseason success, I ran hundreds of linear regression models, with the outcome variable PV, and with many different predictors.

Ability to Drive in Runs Without Hitting Home Runs
 

Hypothesis

For my research, I decided to focus mainly on regular season batting statistics of playoff teams from the past ten years (2003-2012). I did this for a few reasons. First off, as previously mentioned, it is widely accepted that good pitching beats good hitting in the playoffs. However, I think this only holds true when looking at conventional measures of “good” hitting, such as batting average and runs scored. Instead, it could be more important to look at team batting patterns and tendencies. It is my hypothesis that teams that have more simplistic batting approaches, or those that emphasize contact and putting the ball in play and deemphasize over-swinging to try to hit home runs, will be more successful in the postseason. The reasoning behind this is that the pitchers in the postseason are so dominating (the number of off days in the postseason means that teams usually only use three or four of their best starters), a team might only get one or two chances a game to get a rally going or drive in runs. And because the top pitchers in the playoffs, are usually less likely to give up home runs, it is important that when given the proper opportunity, teams are able to drive in runs without hitting home runs.

Results

I started by using the stepwise regression function in R in which, I predicted PV from the original 38 statistics I gathered. These statistics ranged from simplistic, such as hits and home runs, to advanced, such weighted on base average (wOBA) and weighted runs create plus per 600 plate appearances, to contact-based, such as groundball percentage and home run to fly ball ratio. The stepwise function took all possible predictors and entered and removed them from the regression model until all predictors in the model had a p value of less than .1.

The stepwise function gave me the following: PV ~ H + HR + BABIP + GBFB + LDp + HRFB + BUH + Swingp + Contactp. What this meant was that playoff value could be predicted by the combination of hits, home runs, batting average on balls in play, ground ball to fly ball ratio, line drive percentage, home run to fly ball ratio, bunt hits, swing percentage and contact percentage. After finding the summary of this model, I discovered it was statistically significant, as it had a p value of .038.

I was not surprised by a few aspects of the formula, as teams with higher LDp (line drive percentage) and GBFB (ground ball to fly ball ratio) stats usually mean they have more simplistic hitting approaches, as higher rates of hitting line drives and ground balls means that they aren’t over-swinging or trying to only hit home runs as much. However, it is very difficult to interpret these individual coefficients, due to the multicollinearity of the model.

This multicollinearity is caused by the high correlation between the variables in this model. For example, teams that usually have more hits are going to have more home runs, and a higher Batting Average on Balls in Play. After trying several other models that included variables that I thought would be significant (such as contact percentage, line drive percentage and zone contact percentage) I was still unable to find another model that was statistically significant, so I came up with another idea.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for Part 2 of Andrew's analysis.

Event Recap: Bo Moon '99

On April 14, 2014, Bo Moon ’99 addressed the ILR Sports Business Society on the future of sports. A graduate of the College of Engineering, Moon currently leads sports and gaming initiatives at Samsung. He also co-founded Bloomberg Sports, several years after joining Bloomberg as a product manager. Before his tenure at Bloomberg, Moon had stints at PricewaterhouseCoopers, iCollection and Prudential.

During his discussion with the Society, Moon shared advice for students interested in entering the field of sports. Most salient was a point to show people in the field what you have done so far and what you can do in the future, as demonstrating value is absolutely essential to establishing oneself in this competitive industry. As an “intrapreneur” building up Samsung Sports and Gaming, Moon very clearly showcased how getting results matters, especially early on when establishing a venture like Samsung S&G or BSports.

Moon took time to listen to each club member’s future plans in the sport industry, providing insights into specific ways to start a career. He also emphasized that there were many ways to enter the sports world outside the traditional internships and jobs with teams, leagues, agencies, and networks. Increasingly, companies in every industry are attempting to carve out a spot in the sports landscape. In his role at Samsung, Moon hopes to take the company’s sports footprint far beyond being a jersey sponsor. He highlighted Samsung, and some competitors, as being non-traditional sports companies with significant and growing presences in the industry.

Moon also touched on how the industry was preparing for the possible legalization of sports gambling in the United States. The American sports betting market would be extremely lucrative, and many companies have begun maneuvering to take advantage of a change in policy. Moon stressed that leagues could miss out on large revenue streams if they do not embrace the gambling market, and mentioned the NBA as a league that has already begun to sell their in-game statistics to sports books.

Given his responsibilities growing both companies, Moon’s insights into the recent focus on sports data touched on topics ranging from predictive analytics and fantasy sports enhancement to broadcast packages and evaluation tools for teams. He also commented on a number of best practices pertaining to content and data, highlighting the advantages to properties emphasizing new media and strong technology. His main points focused on engaging the end user, something he made clear was a priority at Samsung. Moon predicted all user interface would become more targeted an personalized in the future, which has value to both companies and individuals.

As always, ILRSBS thanks alumni like Bo Moon who take time to speak to our members. The knowledge and experience they share are invaluable to students aspiring to work in the sports industry.  We greatly appreciated hosting Bo and we look forward to staying connected in the future!

Adam Kirsch contributed to this post.

Weekly Blog Recap (5/4)

Here is a rundown of all of the content on the blog from the past week:

(4/28) What Went Wrong With Draft Day?
Assistant Editor Stephen Rosen analyzes the movie Draft Day and explains what he thinks the movie lacked. Was the movie an accurate portrayal of the normal war room of each NFL team? Read to find out.

(4/29) NHL Stanley Cup Finals Prediction
Featured Blogger Stephen Dreznick predicts a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Final matchup. Will the Blackhawks be crowned yet again? Read for an in-depth look into the projected rematch.

(4/30) Event Recap: Becky Sendrow '02
We finally got around to posting Editor-in-Chief Max Fogle's recap from this great event last semester. Becky Sendrow discussed her career as a Sports Broadcasting Agent at Creative Artist's Agency (CAA). Sendrow spoke of representing clients such as Michelle Beadle, Nomar Garciaparra, and Ephraim Salaam. Read to find out more as well as her valuable advice.

(5/1) All Hail the NCAA's Arcane Rules
Is it time for the NCAA to take a step back and realize certain rule changes are necessary in college athletics? In light of the recent Mitch McGary incident, Stephen Rosen expresses his concern over the current rules.

(5/2) Event Recap: Jim McFarland (4/16/14)
ILRSBS played host to NFLPA Executive Committee member Jim McFarland earlier this semester. McFarland discussed topics such as player health and safety, the NFL concussion lawsuit settlement, college athletics, and race and inequality in football. Read to hear his unique insight.

(5/3) Blogger Roundtable: Best Second Round NHL Series
We rounded up the bloggers for the weekly roundtable. This week's question? Which second round NHL playoff series is the best? Read to see how each blogger chose.

Also, check out our Contributor's Page to get to know our staff. Contact information, career plans, and their sporting interests are all there.

Bloggers' Roundtable: Best Second Round NHL Series

This weekend marks the official beginning of the second round of the NHL postseason. Due to the rules change, this year's second round matchup features exclusively division match-ups. The New York Rangers v. the Pittsburgh Penguins or the NHL's biggest market vs. the league's biggest star. The Anaheim Ducks v. the Los Angeles Kings or the NHL's Freeway Series. The Chicago Blackhawks v. the Minnesota Wild or the defending Stanley Cup Champ vs. the only 4 seed remaining. Lastly, the Montreal Canadiens v. the Boston Bruins or an Original Six Matchup who have met more than any other two teams in playoff history.

With such competitive match-ups and interesting narratives in each series,  this week we asked our bloggers which second round NHL series they were most excited for.

Max Fogle, Editor-in-Chief - Boston Bruins v. Montreal Canadiens

This matchup is really has everything that people who overhype hockey match-ups are looking for: "Original Six", "Hockey's best rivalry", and the whole "Canada's team" angle. I don't know how much I buy into any of that, but this should be a great series, with the Canadiens being significant underdogs and the Bruins finishing with the East's best regular season record. Both fan bases hate each other, and feel extremely entitled. This one could get ugly.

Stephen Dreznick, Featured Blogger - New York Rangers v. Pittsburgh Penguins

I am most excited for the matchup between the New York Rangers and the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Rangers just came off of an emotional game 7 victory against the Philadelphia Flyers. But goalie Henrik Lundqvist will have his hands full because the Penguins have Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, two of the best scorers in the game. Expect this series to go 6 or 7 games.

Matthew Hakiman, Featured Blogger - Anaheim Ducks v. Los Angeles Kings

Anaheim Ducks v. Los Angeles Kings - the Kings are red hot coming back from a 3-0 deficit to take the series their series against the San Jose Sharks. Just two years ago, the Kings won the Cup by getting hot at the right time as the eighth seed. The Ducks have been considered by many to be the most consistent team in the West this season, but they'll have a tough time trying to get shots by Jonathan Quick. Already one of the biggest rivalries in the league, these two teams will definitely play an exciting series.

Geoffery Rosenthal, Former Editor-in-Chief - Boston Bruins v. Montreal Canadiens

Bruins-Habs is the obvious answer here. That series will be everything that the playoffs are meant to be about - great hockey, great goaltending, hatred between fan bases, and a historic and current day rivalry. Of course, if you're a fan of the trap system, clutching and grabbing, and watching players who end the careers of others, look no further than the Minnesota series. Because when I think of watching exciting, wide-open hockey, I think of Minnesota.

Event Recap: Jim McFarland (4/16/14)

On Wednesday, April 16th, the ILRSBS hosted NFLPA Executive Committee member Jim McFarland. McFarland played college football at Nebraska University and enjoyed a six-year career in the NFL., and has spoken to the club on one previous occasion.  He graduated from Cornell Law School in 1980 and has been practicing as an attorney ever since.

In 2007, McFarland was named to the NFLPA former players Board of Directors, and in 2010, he was made a former player representative on the NFL Executive Committee. He spoke with the club about the myriad of problems facing the NFL, the NFLPA, the NCAA, and athletes everywhere.

McFarland wished to share his opinions, and hear those of club members, on many of the important issues facing professional and collegiate sports, particularly football. His experiences as a collegiate and professional football player, member of the NFLPA, labor and employment lawyer, and state senator allowed him to speak with distinction on many prominent controversies.

On Player Health and Safety

McFarland illustrated the change in philosophy regarding head injuries, sharing his personal experiences of concussions during his playing career.  He spoke about a particular occasion, where after being rendered unconscious on a kickoff, he returned to play later in the same game.

While McFarland was able to achieve off-field success after his playing days, and remains mentally sharp decades later, he laments the physical, mental, and emotional ailments affecting many of his teammates and opponents.  McFarland was critical of the NFL's response to these issues, pointing out the NFL's distribution of the "Greatest Hits" series at a time when the League was issuing suspensions and fines to players who initiated dangerous plays.

But the NFL was not solely to blame, as the NFLPA had also not done enough to protect its players, according to McFarland. In answering a club member's question, McFarland noted the difficult position the Union often finds itself when defending players against suspensions for dangerous plays. He said that although the NFLPA has a legal obligation to grieve complaints on behalf of its members, they also represent the players seriously injured by illegal hits. This issue, along with other similar contradictions, made the Players Association work very difficult.

On the NFL Concussion Lawsuit Settlement

McFarland discussed all aspects of the disputed settlement of a lawsuit between former players and the NFL.  While lawyers from both sides agreed to a $765 MM settlement, a judge has held up the agreement for further investigation.  Concerns about the settlement include whether there will be enough money to meet the needs of all who would qualify for benefits.

McFarland said that the settlement was good for the NFL, in that it would avoid costly litigation and even greater potential damages in a class action court battle.  Also, with no admission of guilt, the League could finally put the issue behind them.  The settlement would also benefit many former players who need benefits sooner rather than later.  The immediate help that the agreement would provide would help ease burdens now for ex-players struggling with health or financial difficulties.

But McFarland worries that the deal will fall short of providing substantive help to all that deserve it over the long-term.  He was skeptical of the incentives of the lawyers who negotiated the deal, stating that "one-third of $765 MM is  lot of money".

On College Athletics

McFarland stated his interest in the union organizing campaign at Northwestern. While he is mixed on the role of unions in college sports, the collective action taken by players is yet another sign of the flaws of the NCAA.  He also wondered how unionization could meet the needs of students in other sports, as well as those in public schools, especially in anti-union states.

He noted that a professional may be more appropriate for certain schools with large fan bases. But on the whole, McFarland preferred the "Ivy League system", where scholarships are awarded on the basis of financial need rather than athletic prowess.

On Race and Inequality in Football

McFarland left the audience with a question regarding race in football.  He stated that the current  racial dynamics of the sport were "something to think about". When he began his professional playing career, McFarland said the league was approximately 50% African-American players.  The number has gone up dramatically since then, and he wonders what that says about our athletic and educational systems.  If you removed the positions of center, long-snapper, quarterbacks, kickers, and punters, African-Americans would make up 92% of the NFL players.

Again, we’d like to thank Jim McFarland for taking the time to speak with members of our club. It was an incredibly informative and insightful discussion, which we all truly enjoyed and appreciated.

All Hail the NCAA's Arcane Rules

Mitch McGary will never wear Michigan Maize again

Friday April 25th the NCAA ended Michigan’s 2014-5 NCAA basketball chances likely ended. Also the NCAA found a new way to blow up twitter and blogs with its arcane rules. The NCAA suspended Mitch McGary for a year effectively forcing him to declare for the NBA Draft. Mitch McGary was an pre-season All American who missed all of last season because of a back injury. He passed 5 drugs tests over the course of the year and failed the 6th. The issue was that the NCAA administered the 6th drug test. The NCAA’s punishment for a failed drug test at a championship event which is what the Sweet Sixteen is considered when McGary failed the test and was forced to suspend for the year.

If Michigan had caught McGary smoking weed in a university drug test one that occurred just two weeks before the NCAA one, the University of Michigan policy is to suspend him for 10% of the season which is effectively 3 games and a week of activities. Michigan’s policy is considered strict by NCAA standards. If McGary’s test had occurred on April 16th and not March 28th, 19 days later then McGary would have been suspended for just 6 months making him eligible for the season and not a year.

To recap: If McGary fails his test 2 weeks earlier, he misses a week and 10% of his games, if he fails 19 days later a change in NCAA policy means his suspension would have been just 6 months and he could play for Michigan next year. Yet McGary got caught in the middle and the NCAA is all but forcing his hand to go to the NBA. The NCAA does not even require teams to test for weed, yet when they do it’s a year punishment. I am sorry, but if you were protecting your student athletes, NCAA, you would have reversed the decision on appeal and not tried to force out McGary.

He smoked weed one time, he understands the mistake he made and now his college career was effectively ended. Marshall Henderson, got a 3 game suspension for being arrested for possession of weed and cocaine, this was after numerous failed drug tests that forced him to transfer 3 different teams in college, yet the University of Mississippi and not the NCAA caught him and they got to determine the punishment. How does that make any sense? Why is everyone not held to the same standard?

This is the NCAA’s critical problem: the rules are inconsistent. It is not just that Marshall Henderson can be pulled over for weed and cocaine possession and get 3 games and McGary smokes weed once, and gets a full year suspension, but coaches can leave a school and break their contract with ease and players cannot. Last week, Kansas St. announced that would not release Leticia Romero from her scholarship. Leticia Romero wanted to transfer after Kansas St. fired their women’s basketball coach Deb Patterson, the women who had recruited Romero. Romero decided the new coach did not fit her style and wanted to leave. Under NCAA rules, if a university does not release a transferring athlete from their scholarship when they choose to transfer, they cannot receive financial aid initially at their next school.

Yes, the coach can leave a university without repercussions, but a student-athlete cannot. The NCAA took a small step to fix this injustice saying that from now on transferring players will not lose a year of eligibility when they transfer if they already redshirted, but it does not stop a university from blocking that transfer. Kansas St. was unhappy with their coach and fired them, the players were unhappy with that decision and could not leave. This is a hypocrisy that are the NCAA rules.

I am sorry Mitch McGary. I am sorry Leticia Romero. I wish the NCAA would change their rules and become a place of logic and reason. You guys are both stuck with horrible rules that do not benefit you.  These are the reasons why there is talk of players trying to unionize. They have no voice. The NCAA recently announced rule changes that are supposed to help benefit the athlete which is awesome. It would have been nice if the athletes had a say in these rule changes.

The players are left voiceless and the rules are arcane. How can you have rules that say that failing a drug test on the Sunday of the Big Ten Tourney when Michigan gave him his drug test meant he would be suspended a week plus 3 games, but if he fails on Thursday at the NCAA tournament the punishment shoots up to a year? How can you freely allow coaches to break contracts and leave schools, but tell the players that signed with those school for those coaches, that they must stay at the school and even if they can get the school to allow them to leave, they must sit out a year before becoming eligible? The NCAA needs to look at itself in the mirror and realize that mistakes are being made and they are at fault.