Casual Fan's MLB Offseason Roundup

I think of myself as a decent fan of Major League Baseball. Yet, every spring I embarrassingly find myself puzzled as to how I could miss a fairly notable veteran has changed teams. Maybe I focus too much on other sports (Football, Basketball), but whatever the cause is, I'm here to help others avoid this feeling. Let's take a look at a few noteworthy offseason moves you may have missed.

Let's start off with a couple of acquisitions made by the Arizona Diamondbacks. They acquired Mark Trumbo back in December, via a three-team trade. Despite Trumbo's mediocre average (.250 for his career), the move makes sense for Arizona because of the pop he can offer their lineup. In his three full MLB seasons, Trumbo has averaged over 30 HRs per year, with a low mark of 29. The Diamondbacks had one player hit 15 or more last season.

They also signed veteran pitcher Bronson Arroyo to a fairly sizeable two-year, $23.5 million dollar contract just a few days ago. Arroyo provides veteran leadership, and durability (never once placed on the DL in the bigs) for the D-Backs. This is a move I'm betting most people missed as it didn't get much national attention. Likely because outlets like ESPN have so many other stories on their dockets (Super Bowl fallout, Winter Olympics, a weekend full of basketball, etc.).

Sticking with the theme of veteran pitchers coming to the NL West, a move that may have been overlooked was the Giants signing three-time All-Star pitcher Tim Hudson. San Francisco has us hoping he can recover from the ankle injury that sidelined him at the end of last season. Hudson has never posted an ERA at or above 4 and has won over 15 games in each of his last three full seasons. He's a good signing by the Giants, because there is almost no way he produces less than Barry Zito, the guy he's replacing.

This past offseason Rafael Furcal quietly signed a one-year deal with the Miami Marlins after missing all of 2013. A do-it-all type of middle infielder Furcal has done one thing consistently his whole career, and that's win. He's reached the playoffs in 9 of his first 13 MLB seasons. He could provide a young Marlins team (as if there exists any other kind) with some much needed leadership in the clubhouse.

Heath Bell, formerly known as a stout closer for the Padres and the guy who slid at the 2011 All-Star game. The Rays acquired the veteran reliever through a three-team trade. Although he likely won't close for them, he could be a very useful 7th or 8th inning guy. Bell did have over 40 saves three consecutive years in San Diego, so the talent is there, or at least it was.

Lastly, there's Dexter Fowler, who was traded to Houston this winter. Still fairly young (27), but a veteran in my book seeing as how he's been a fixture in Colorado's outfield since Obama's inauguration. Fowler seems to be forever trapped as someone known for his potential because of modest numbers and freakish athleticism. He's still a solid offensive contributor and covers a ton of ground in the outfield. The biggest reason for this trade flying under the radar, however, is because one of the teams involved is the Astros. Houston over the past three seasons has accrued over 320 loses, and in the process have become completely irrelevant sans the occasional joke at their expense.

This is not to say that these are the only offseason transactions of note. Clearly, the Cano's of the world matter, but most everyone who has had internet access over the past three months is aware of his change in address. These are the guys whose offseason headlines failed to garner headlines outside their local news markets. Hopefully this post helps some people avoid being negatively judged by their baseball-loving fans for not keeping up with hot-stove news this winter.

NBA Offseason Roundup: Part III

Can Al Jefferson help the Jazz take the next step in 2013?

For the first installment of this series, click HERE. For the second installment, click HERE. 

In order to run a successful NBA team, it is crucial to consider the long-term effects of each transaction and to follow-through on a vision for the future. In my most recent blog post, I reviewed how two teams were able to dramatically change their roster by trading their superstar player. Now, I'd like to examine how three successful teams from last year used this offseason to build upon positive seasons. This is part three in a series of blog posts recapping the NBA offseason.

Jazz, Pacers, and Clippers Hope To Build Upon Playoff Appearances

In the last two free agency blog posts, I wrote about teams who are currently focused on rebuilding and are not necessarily ready to contend for the championship just yet. Now, I want to turn my attention to three franchises who are a little bit further along in the rebuilding process because they are coming off of seasons in which they made the playoffs. None of these teams made any significant personnel changes this past offseason, but they are hoping that some minor moves and internal improvements will allow them to advance further in the playoffs this year and in the near future.

Utah Jazz (36-30, 8th in Western Conference. Lost to San Antonio Spurs 4-0 in First Round)

Improvements: The Jazz's first full season without All-Star point guard Deron Williams was a successful one due in large part to the success of their youthful frontcourt. Big men Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, and Enes Kanter all contributed to the Jazz finishing 3rd in the league in rebounding. Their major weakness coming into this season was perimeter shooting (27th in the league in 3PT% at 32%), so they acquired Randy Foye and Marvin Williams, both of whom shot 39% from the 3-point line last season.

Problems: San Antonio’s high-paced pick and roll offense was far too much for the Jazz to handle in the first round of the playoffs, as the Spurs won by an average of 16 points per game in the 4 game sweep. The Jazz defense was their weak point for all of last season (8th worst in the league in points allowed per game) and they didn’t do much this offseason to improve their defense. 

Looking Ahead: The Jazz's two leading scorers (Jefferson and Millsap) have expiring contracts and both of those guys play similar positions to the Jazz's two best young players (Favors and Kanter). Losing either Jefferson or Millsap would be a major setback for an improving Jazz team, so the front office must figure out a way to bring both players back or get some value in return if they lose either one of them. Utah has the depth and youth to build upon their trip to the playoffs last season.

Indiana Pacers (42-24, 3rd in Eastern Conference. Lost to Miami Heat 4-2 in Second Round)

Improvements: The Pacers gained a great deal of respect around the league when they forced a six game series against the eventual champion Miami Heat. Indiana was able to win 42 games last year because of balanced scoring and defense. Their signings of Ian Mahinmi and Gerald Green should build upon those strengths as Mahinmi is a strong defensive big man and Green looks like he could develop into an explosive scorer from the wing. Additionally, the Pacers were able to resign Roy Hibbert and George Hill, two of their key players, to four- and five-year deals respectively.

Problems: The NBA is a star-driven league, and it is very difficult to contend for a championship without a superstar. The Pacers only had one player named to the All-Star game (Roy Hibbert) and he may have been the most questionable selection out of all the players who made the game. Danny Granger led the team in scoring but his shooting percentage (41.6%, 97^th in the league) was not good. The Pacers did not appear to make any attempt to acquire a star player this past summer and unless one of their current players improves dramatically, their lack of a true superstar could be an issue going forward. 

Looking Ahead:Indiana has most of their key guys under contract for at least the next two seasons and they should continue to play hard-nosed defense under one of the league’s best young coaches in Frank Vogel. If the Pacers can’t advance past the second round in the next couple of seasons, they may need to consider acquiring a superstar talent to help them take the next step to becoming a true contender.

Los Angeles Clippers (40-26, 5th in Western Conference. Lost to San Antonio Spurs 4-0 in Second Round)

Improvements: The Clippers immediately became relevant once they acquired Chris Paul. Pairing Paul with Blake Griffin, who is perhaps the most explosive young power forward in the league, allowed the Clippers to vault into the playoffs and even win a seven-game first round series against the Memphis Grizzlies. One of the Clippers major problems last season was their reliance on Paul as their only offensive playmaker, especially after Chauncey Billups got injured. The Clippers addressed that problem by signing Jamal Crawford and Lamar Odom, both of whom are capable ball handlers and can create their own offense. Internally, the Clippers got Blake Griffin to agree to a maximum 5-year contract extension, guaranteeing that he’ll be wearing a Clipper uniform for at least the next 6 seasons.

Problems: The Clippers interior defense was soft last season, mainly because of DeAndre Jordan’s and Griffin’s inexperience. In the postseason, the Clippers were most effective on defense when Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans were in the game and both guys are no longer on the team. The Clippers did not do much to address their lack of frontcourt depth and they could continue to struggle to guard the interior this season.

Looking Ahead: Getting Chris Paul to re-sign should really be their only significant priority, as his contract expires after this season. He is a talented enough player and leader to make sure this team (as presently constructed) contends for championships for several years to come and if he leaves, the Clippers could be on track to return to irrelevance. If they are able to re-sign Paul to what will be sure to be a maximum level contract, they will not have the flexibility to make any dramatic transactions in the upcoming years. However, with Paul, Griffin and the appropriate role players, they may just have a roster that is capable of competing for a title. 

NBA Offseason Roundup: Part II

Kevin Love: Minnesota's Savior

For the first installment of this series, click HERE. 

In order to run a successful NBA team, it is crucial to not only consider the long-term effects of each transaction but also to adhere to a long-term vision during the offseason. Recently, I analyzed the offseason transactions of a variety of teams who are in the process of reconstructing their rosters. Today, I'd like to review how two teams were able to start their rebuilding processes by trading their superstar players. This is part two in a series of blog posts recapping the NBA offseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Hornets On the Way Up

Occasionally, NBA franchises must part ways with their superstar player if that player is not capable of leading the team to a championship with his current supporting cast. The Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Hornets each experienced this dilemma with their respective all-stars.

Kevin Garnett entered the league in 1995, and he guided the Timberwolves to eight playoff appearances in the next nine seasons. After making the Western Conference Finals in 2004, the T’wolves failed to make the playoffs in each of KG’s next three seasos. Clearly, the T’wolves were not getting any better, so they were left with a decision to make regarding their 30 year old star power forward.

In the 2005 NBA draft, the New Orleans Hornets selected Chris Paul with the 4^th pick. Two seasons later, Paul led the Hornets to 56 wins and a memorable second round 7-game series against the defending champion San Antonio Spurs. That was the Hornets best season with Paul on the roster. In the summer of 2011, everybody was talking about the possibility of him leaving once his contract expired after that season, so the Hornets had a big decision to make regarding their superstar.

It is very rare for a team to get equal value in return when trading a superstar because of the impact that one great player can have on a team’s overall level of success. However, the T’wolves and Hornets were able to reconstruct their rosters after dealing their star player by avoiding “The dreaded middle” that we talked about in Free Agent Blog Post I.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves lost enough in their first season without KG to get the third pick in the next year’s draft. That pick turned into Kevin Love, who many people thought lacked the athleticism to become a great power forward. Early on, the criticism was justified, as Love’s teams failed to win 25 games in each of his first three seasons. The constant losing caused the T’wolves to have four top-6 picks in the 2009-2011 drafts. Those picks turned out to be Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Wesley Johnson, and Derrick Williams. The T’wolves missed on two of those picks (Flynn and Johnson), which undoubtedly stalled their rebuilding process. However, Rubio’s excellence in his debut season may have made up for those bad picks, as he demonstrated a court vision that only a few point guards in the league possess. His play was a major part of the Wolves early season success (21-20) and the Wolves struggled mightily after Rubio went down with a torn ACL, as they went 5-20 without him.

Kevin Love has emerged as one of the league’s top power forwards and he and Rubio form one of the best young guard/forward duos in the league. Unfortunately, Love is going to be out until around early December recovering from a broken wrist and Rubio could be out until mid January, as he recovers from his ACL injury. Bad injury luck aside, the Timberwolves are demonstrating how trading a franchise player and “bottoming out” can be a successful way to reconstruct a franchise.

New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets traded Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers in the summer of 2011 for Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu and a future first round pick (Austin Rivers) in return for CP3. The main part of the trade was Gordon, who is a potential future all-star and the type of young player that all teams hope to receive when they have to trade their best player. Gordon picked a good season to get hurt because his absence from all but nine games last season caused the Hornets to wind up with the 4^thworst record in the league and thus, the 4^th best odds of winning the #1 overall pick in the draft. New Orleans went on to unexpectedly win the draft lottery, which guaranteed them the right to select Anthony Davis, who was clearly the top prospect of the 2012 draft class.

The Hornets exemplified the "bottoming out" strategy by trading their superstar, which all but ensured that they would receive a valuable draft pick. Of course, not all teams are lucky enough to land the #1 pick and not all #1 picks are as promising as Anthony Davis. Still, the Hornets gave themselves a chance at acquiring a franchise player by losing enough games to get a high pick in the draft.

The Hornets got more in return for their star player than the Wolves, but they were also extremely lucky to get the #1 pick in the year that Anthony Davis was set to enter the league. If Davis becomes the type of player that many expect him to become, the Hornets could be a perennial playoff team for many years. Their bright future is a result of their ability to  “bottom out” after trading their franchise player.

Conclusion

The nature of the NBA and the NBA’s draft system makes it so that it is better to be really bad than to be average. The Wolves and Hornets were both in a position where they were not contenders and if they wanted to radically change their roster, they would have to trade their superstars. Both teams lost a lot of games in the subsequent season(s) following their trades. The losing seasons allowed each team to improve up to this point and both teams should continue to improve over the next several seasons. 

NBA Offseason Roundup: Part I

Lebron James and Chris Bosh went to Miami. The Heat won a championship.

Three of the top ten players in the NBA have changed teams in the last three free agency periods. LeBron took his talents to South Beach, Chris Paul helped construct Lob City, and Dwight Howard maneuvered his way out of Orlando. These three players exemplify how free agency can allow a team to dramatically alter the course of its franchise. In the upcoming weeks, I am going to examine the positives and negatives of the offseasons of all thirty NBA franchises and how each team has either improved or worsened their ability to contend in the upcoming seasons. I will begin with the teams that made the least noise this offseason and they will be divided into three categories.

The worst place to be for an NBA franchise is the middle of the pack because it is the place where not only can you not build through the draft, but you are also not competing for a championship.

Veteran teams that suffer first round playoff exits or finish just outside of the playoffs can be stuck in that dreadful position for a long time. “Bottoming out,” or having a few really bad seasons and acquiring talented rookies with high draft picks, has proven to be an effective (but also risky) way for a team to rapidly improve its roster. And then, of course, there are some teams that seem to have no direction in their front office at all. So let’s classify ten teams who made the least dramatic moves this offseason into three groups: the “dreaded middle,” the “clueless,” and the “bottoming out" groups. 

Dreaded Middle

Golden State Warriors

It seems that, for the past few seasons, Golden State emerges as a potential sleeper team before the year begins. Unfortunately, they have failed to live up to expectations. Last season, they mysteriously traded Stephen Jackson for Richard Jefferson, which was a move that only seemed to add $11 million of limited production to their cap for next season. Andris Biedrins and David Lee both have bloated contracts, and only one of them will be able to start alongside the newly acquired Andrew Bogut this season. The Warriors have some good young players, such as Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, and Stephen Curry, but this roster is good enough to finish in the 7-10 zone in the West and that’s about it. Not an ideal situation for a roster that has four players who are being paid around $10 million annually.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks most notable move was resigning forward Ersan Ilyasova to a four-year deal worth about $32 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy who’s averaged ten points and six rebounds a game over his four-year career. The Bucks did make a sneaky good signing by picking up Samuel Dalembert to fill in their gap at center that has been a problem since Andrew Bogut was traded away. The Bucks’s main problem is their lack of star power and that will doom them to either a very low playoff seed or a spot just outside looking in, which could make it difficult for them to overhaul their roster any time soon.

Portland Trail Blazers

The 2011-2012 season was one of the worst in many years for Portland. Last season, Portland saw their franchise player (Brandon Roy) retire because of a bothersome knee and their longtime coach (Nate McMillan) get fired. This offseason, they unsuccessfully courted center Roy Hibbert and signed swingman Nicolas Batum to an outrageous four year, $45 million deal. The Blazers are stuck with Batum and Wesley Matthews, who take up about $18 million of their cap per year for the next three seasons, which could be an issue considering both guys haven’t even proven to be legitimate starters. Led by improving big man LaMarcus Aldridge, the Blazers have enough talent to avoid the cellar of the Western Conference, but not enough to make any sort of run in the playoffs.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards made the first big acquisition of the 2012 offseason when they sacrificed cap room to acquire center Emeka Okafor and swingman Trevor Ariza. The acquisition of Okafor and Ariza, along with big man Nene last season, demonstrates Washington’s intent on building a winning team around franchise point guard John Wall. The only problem is that the Wizards are not anywhere close to the level of the elite teams in the East. In fact, unless John Wall undergoes a significant improvement in his third season, the Wizards may not even make the playoffs. If the Wizards fail to make the playoffs for the sixth season in a row, they would be a major disappointment considering that they just traded valuable cap space in order to improve their roster right now.

Bottoming Out

Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats tanked their way through the 2011-2012 campaign in order to give themselves the best shot at acquiring Anthony Davis, a legitimate franchise changing center. They ended up falling just short, as the New Orleans Hornets leapfrogged them for the #1 pick and the Bobcats instead ended up with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is known for his gritty style of play and his athleticism, but he will not have the same impact that Davis would have had. The Bobcats traded Corey Maggette for Ben Gordon and they signed Ramon Sessions to a two year, 10 million dollar deal. Gordon and Sessions will bolster the Bobcats offense but both guys are lackluster defenders and they will take up $18 million of cap room in 2013-2014. The Bobcats have a long way to go to become a winning team, but they should have several top lottery picks coming their way in the next few drafts.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are slowly returning to relevance and they are doing it through the draft and not free agency. The Cavs have three top-four picks from the last two years. One of those picks was Kyrie Irving, the 2011 Rookie of the Year, who has as bright a future as anyone in the league. On the other hand, Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters are very much question marks and if they don’t pan out, the Cavs could become a case study about the risky nature of building through the draft. Look for the Cavs to return to the lottery in 2013 and they will also have enough cap space to potentially make a significant move in free agency.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are managing their situation similarly to the Cavs because they are building through the draft and avoiding shelling out big and unnecessary contracts in free agency. Andre Drummond, Brandon Knight, and Greg Monroe are the Pistons’ last three lottery picks, and Monroe has already blossomed into a very effective big man through two seasons. The Pistons also made a shrewd transaction when they traded Ben Gordon for Corey Maggette, which will clear up about $12 million in cap room next summer. Like the Cavs, the Pistons should have a high draft pick and cap space next summer, which leaves them in a good rebuilding position.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have struggled ever since losing Chris Bosh two years ago, but they brought in four, potentially important, newcomers this season. Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas, the fifth pick in the 2011 draft, will make his debut after sitting out last season, and the Raps got a nice pickup at point guard when they acquired Kyle Lowry. Their most questionable move was signing Landry Fields to a three-year $19 million contract. Fields has the reputation as being the “glue guy” for the Knicks over the past two seasons, but career averages of nine points and five rebounds per game should not get you that kind of money. The Raptors key players are youthful and inexpensive and drafting a few more good young players will put them in a good position going forward.

Clueless

Phoenix Suns

Parting ways with the face of the franchise (Steve Nash) was supposed to signal the start of a rebuilding period in Phoenix. Instead, they spent their offseason signing veteran players to multi-year contracts. Goran Dragic is solid but he’s never been a full-time starter at any point in his career and the Suns gave him a four-year $30 million deal. The Suns also acquired Michael Beasley and Wesley Johnson, two former top five picks who have underachieved throughout their careers. The Suns have a flawed roster, and they have committed too many dollars to veteran rotation players such as Dragic, Marcin Gortat, and Channing Frye. Of course, the Suns then decided that they needed another veteran rotation player, so they signed 32-year old Luis Scola. Phoenix should have acquired young talent and valuable draft picks for Nash and saved cap space for the future. Instead, they got little in return for Nash and acquired four players who might help them win just enough games to prevent them from obtaining a high pick in next year’s draft.

Sacramento Kings

It’s been difficult to decipher Sacramento’s strategy given their recent transactions. After drafting Thomas Robinson to play in the frontcourt alongside Demarcus Cousins, they proceeded to resign Jason Thompson to a five-year, $30 million deal. Thompson averages ten points and seven rebounds in his career, and the signing makes even less sense considering that the Kings signed Chuck Hayes (another frontcourt rotation player) to a similar deal last year. The Kings hodgepodge of shoot-first guards grew even larger when they signed Aaron Brooks to a two-year $6 million deal. The Kings don’t have any sort of cap space because they have been giving out ill-advised contracts the past few years. Sacramento needs to be focused on trading some of their young players for a major star. Otherwise, they’ll be making an annual visit to the lottery for many years to come.
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Stay tuned for Part II of the Roundup in the coming weeks!