Thursday, December 19, 2013

Batting Leadoff- Man On First: Should I Steal?


This post originally appeared on Batting Leadoff. Batting Leadoff is a website dedicated to providing readers with premium baseball content. Posts from the site will appear regularly on the Sports Business Society Blog (view the information in the sidebar for updated information.)

By Matthew Provenzano 

Suppose you are a manager. It is the beginning of an inning (does not matter which one) and your first hitter gets on first base. The score is tied and it may be in the team’s best interest to try to swipe second base. Using Run Expectancy Matrices and Stolen Base/Caught Stealing Data from 1993-2010, courtesy of the Lahman Database, we can determine whether the runner should be sent.


Using the Lahman Database, it is easily determined that the average SB% is 69.9%, so we shall assume that the runner in question has a SB% of 69.9%, for the sake of argument. To determine whether it would be beneficial or not to steal, all that needs to be done is to calculate the expected payoff of a steal vs. the payoff if one does not steal. If the difference is positive, then one should steal, and vice-versa. The payoff of a steal can be represented as the following:

.699536 * SB + .300464 * CS, where SB and CS are the payoffs for a stolen base and a caught stealing, respectively. These payoffs can be put into a neat table, one row showing the probability of scoring one run when stealing, and the other column showing the average number of runs scored when stealing.



0 outs
1 out
2 outs
Prob. 1 run scores
.497
.315
.161
Avg. # runs scored
.906
.538
.243
This doesn’t mean anything when standing by itself, so this next chart will show the difference between stealing payoff vs. non-stealing payoff:

0 outs
1 out
2 outs
Prob. 1 run scores
+.056
+.031
+.026
Avg. # runs scored
-.035
-.024
-.002
So, what does this all mean? This would really only make sense given the context. This chart basically shows that stealing will increase the probability of scoring a single run in an inning, but will hurt the chance of a multi-run inning. If a manager is facing Clayton Kershaw, then it would be in their best interest to score a run in any way, especially if the possibility of scoring a run in the future is bleak. This can work similarly in the playoffs, where the run differentials are often smaller and opportunities for run scoring can dwindle quickly. But in a regular season match-up against an average to below-average team, it may be beneficial to shoot for multi-run innings to pad leads.

What this also shows is that baserunning, while important, is not the most crucial aspect of the game. Rickey Henderson, even during his prime, only generated approximately 3 WAR from his 100+ steals in a season. To illustrate this, let’s look at the chart of differences one more time, but instead I will use the SB% of Rickey Henderson–80.76%.


0 outs
1 out
2 outs
Prob. 1 run scores
+.107
+.068
+.051
Avg. # runs scored
+.060
+.042
+.03

This pretty much works in the same fashion as the previous table in that the probability of a single run scoring is obviously higher than that of the average number of runs scored in an inning. But this shows that with even one of the best base-stealers in the history, on average he could only increase the probability of one run scoring by ~10%. Now, that is pretty good. And because every box is positive, it would behoove a manager to send Henderson in most cases. But, if this is only for one of the best, how consequential of a strategy could base stealing really be? And in effect, it’s mostly inconsequential. It provides a possibly small advantage depending on the scenario. Given all of this: should the runner from first be sent? It may sound unsatisfying, but the answer is: it depends, and it may not make a difference.

Matthew Provenzano is a sophomore at Cornell University in the College of Arts and Sciences, majoring in Information Science and with a minor in Law and Society. Matt is a member of Cornell At Bat where he is a journalist, broadcaster, and content manager and is also the Technical Director of the Big Red Sports Network and founded http://bigredsportsnetwork.org. He is from Seaford, NY, and has been a die-hard Yankee fan since the age of 6. Contact Matt at mjp294@cornell.edu or follow him on twitter at @mpro6294.

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Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The Magic Touch: International Expansion and the Bundesliga


In August, after Bayern Munich won the Audi Cup in China, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, the chairman of the club, announced that the Bayern will set up a Chinese office to handle a wide range of businesses and continue to penetrate the high-potential Chinese market.

 Rummenigge announces new plans

 With the same purpose of increasing overseas expansion as Bayern Munich, the Stuttgart soccer club just declared that from January 7th train and prepare for the second half of the season in Cape Town, South Africa--ten thousand kilometers away from Germany. Many people may find it surprising that the club has chosen to set the training camp in such a distant location, and athletes will definitely be tired and uncomfortable because of long-distance flights, different time zones, climate and diet. However, this plan makes sense.



This move will not only let players enjoy sunshine of South Africa in January but also will allow the club to obtain an amount of money awarded by the German Football League (known as DFL, Deutsche Fußball Liga). In order to encourage the club to do more outreach in other countries, the DFL will pay Stuttgart €250 thousand for its winter trip. But in order to get this reward, the club will also have to take part in many local activities. According to the schedule offered by manager Fredi Bobic, besides training and matches, the club will travel to Robben Island to climb mountains. All of these activities in South Africa will be broadcast by Supersports TV station.

Robben Island, 6.9 km west of the coast of Cape Town 

People should get used to this type of overseas trip from German clubs, and in the future we will find an increasing number of trips happening around the globe. All of these actions are geared towards keeping up with the pace set by other leagues like the Premier League to expand overseas markets. During the 1990s, Barcelona, Manchester United and AC Milan started to train and play matches in Asia and America, but fans could hardly find Bundesliga clubs outside of Europe.

“Bundesliga is backward drops behind other leagues as for developing overseas market,” Christian Seifert, a member of the DFL board said. In order to change this situation, DFL has launched a program for clubs: DFL will provide financial aid and extra bonuses to clubs that set up overseas training camps, and some clubs can obtain up to €300 thousand for doing so.

 According to Dr. Jan Lehmann, the director of Strategic Marketing & Product Management of the DFL, there are two important rules for this new program. The first is that eighteen clubs are ranked by UEFA Coefficient (which is based on the results of clubs competing in the five previous seasons of the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League).

This rank is then regarded as its corresponding overseas influence. Because of the different rank, each team can obtain a different bonus. Those clubs with a point total higher than 50 will gain €150 thousand; those clubs with a point total between 25 and 50 will get €100 thousand; the rest of the clubs with fewer that 25 points but more than one point will get €50 thousand.


The table of UEFA Coefficients of German clubs

The second rule for financial aid is about the place which clubs choose to do outreach. For this regulation, DFL lists eleven major markets: China, Russia, America (Canada), Poland, Indonesia, Japan, Turkey, India, Thailand, Brazil and Sub-Saharan Africa (including South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya). If a club whose UEFA Coefficient is higher than 50 sets the training camp in Europe, it will win 150 thousand Euros; if it sets the camp outside Europe, it will gain another 75 thousand.

China is the biggest target for clubs

For example, because of two rules, if Bayern Munich set its training camp in China next summer, it will get more than 300 thousand Euros from DFL. Although this amount of money is not attractive to such a big-spending club, it will motivate many other middle and small clubs, and the trip of Stuggart exactly demonstrates this point. Besides this new program, in order to expand overseas markets, DFL has also tried to develop broadcasting contracts, which will bring the league to a higher level from a global context.

According to new contracts, the revenue from overseas broadcasting of Bundesliga will be increased to 150 million Euros in 2015. Benefiting from all these actions, fans from different countries will have more chances to get involved in Bundesliga. Moreover, because of these mechanisms, more and more small and medium clubs will have greater opportunities to develop themselves, which will gradually break the monopoly of Bayern Munich and Dortmund which dominate the ranking, so a more competitive league will be presented to fans.

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Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Top 10: Greatest NBA Players




10. Julius Erving SG, SF/ Philadelphia 76ers

 Longtime basketball fans say that Julius Erving revolutionized the game of basketball. He was one of the first non-big man to utilize dunking as a high percentage shot, and he was the most well-known ABA player during its merger with the NBA after the 1975-76 season. Between his time in both the ABA and NBA, Erving won three championships, four MVP awards, and three scoring titles.

9. Tim Duncan C, PF/ San Antonio Spurs

Some may say this is too low on the list while others may say that this is too high, but one thing is for sure. Tim Duncan is one of the best all-around big men of all time. He has always been one of the top defenders in the league, while averaging over 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. He led the Spurs, a small-market team with a relatively low salary cap, to four championships, . Timmy Duncan has two MVP awards, three finals MVP awards, and is therefore one of the most underappreciated stars in NBA history.


8. Bill Russell PF, C/Boston Celtics

Bill Russell is the greatest winner of all time. He won 11 NBA Championships, which is a record that will never be broken. He also won five NBA MVP awards in 13 seasons because of wall-like defensive impact. The only reason Bill Russell is not higher on this list is because he did have the offensive game of a dominant player. Despite this, Russell was a presence on the court at all times and he will always be remembered as one of the NBA’s first great players.


7. Shaquille O’Neal C/ Los Angeles Lakers and others

Shaq is not only is one of the most dominant centers of all time, but he is also the greatest personality the NBA has ever had. The four-time champion was an unstoppable force that bullied around any defender that went near him. The only reason why Shaq is not a top-five player of all time is that he could not shoot the ball. However, it is unlikely that any player, including Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, would be able to stop Shaq if they played in the same era. I personally will miss Shaq since he retired from the game of basketball.


6. Kobe Bryant SG/Los Angeles Lakers

Lets start with his stats: 2007-2008 MVP, 5 time NBA champion, 13 time All-NBA Team member, 11 time All-Defensive Team member, 4 time All Star Game MVP award winner, Lakers all time highest scorer.

Kobe Bryant is often referred to as the second best shooting guard in history behind Michael Jordan. He is one of the greatest scorers in history (check out his 81 point performance), and he is one of the most dominant overall guards too.


5. Larry Bird SF/Boston Celtics

Larry is arguably the greatest shooter of all time, and he led the Celtics to three NBA championships in the 1980’s. He was a three time MVP award winner, and he revolutionized the game of basketball with his rivalry with Magic Johnson. Many people do not know this, but Bird was an overall player. He averaged 10 rebounds and over 6 assists per game, and he was a great defender. His name will forever be associated with one of the best basketball players ever.


4. Magic Johnson PG/Los Angeles Lakers

Magic Johnson is often rated as the best point guard of all time. He is a five time champion and a three time MVP. If his career had not been shortened by HIV, Magic may have won more championships and been in the top 2 on this list. He is probably the greatest all around Laker of all time, which is pretty awesome considering there are five of them on this list.


3. Kareem Abdul Jabbar C/Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks

At the time of his retirement, Abdul-Jabbar was the NBA's all-time leader in points scored, games played, minutes played, field goals made, field goal attempts, blocked shots, defensive rebounds, and personal fouls. That is pretty damn impressive. He won 6 NBA championships and a record 6 MVP Awards in 20 seasons. He is famous for his “skyhook”, and he is one of the greatest players to ever play the game.

2. Wilt Chamberlain C/ Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers

100 points in a game. 50 points per game in a season. These are two things that Wilt Chamberlain has done that no other player has ever come close to achieving. His dominance of the NBA was known by all as he dropped 50 points and 20 rebounds frequently. He was a 2 time NBA champion, and a four time MVP. Heck, the NBA had to change a handful of rules due to his dominance.

1 . Michael Jordan SG/ Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards

He is by far the best player of all time. He has five MVP awards, 6 Final MVP awards, and he is one of the most clutch athletes of all time. Jordan is one of the greatest leaders and scorers in NBA history, and he was also a top-notch defender. Jordan's fearlessness and love for the game drove him to do things that no other player has ever done, and his passion has impacted basketball forever. If he hadn’t retired from basketball for baseball, his numbers would have been even more impressive. He is the greatest player to play the game of basketball, and is therefore on the top of this exclusive list.







Notable snubs:


Oscar Robertson- At the time of his retirement, he was first all time on the NBA’s all-time assist list and second all time on the NBA scoring list behind Wilt Chamberlain (See #2). Additionally, he managed to pick up both an NBA championship and an MVP award.


Hakeem Olajuwon- He is the only player to win the MVP award, Defensive Player of the Year award and Finals MVP award in the same season. He won back-to-back championships as the leader of the Houston Rockets in 1994 and 1995, and he is known as one of the greatest centers of all time.




LeBron James- Settle down LeBron fans. He will be high on this list eventually. Although he should arguably be on this list right now, he still has many seasons to go in which he will add to his already impressive resume: Four MVP awards and two Finals MVP awards. 

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Monday, December 16, 2013

The Weekly Rant: Masahiro Tanaka and the Posting System


Masahiro Tanaka may or may not be coming to Major League Baseball this winter.  The Japanese ace's future is in the hands of his current team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles. With the changes in the Posting System decreasing incentives for Nippon Professional Baseball clubs to post the very best players, Rakuten may hope to keep Tanaka for at least 2014, his last season before he reaches free agency in Japan. And then he would still have to complete one more season in Japan to become a free agent in MLB terms.

The new posting system allows NPB teams to place a price on players they post. That's a significant change. The more dramatic change is that the posting fee is capped at $20 MM.  Another major change is that any MLB team that meets that number will be free to negotiate with the player. For a quick recap on the incentives of the old posting system, check out my post on the subject.


The clear losers in the new agreement are the NPB teams. For most players who get posted, the $20 MM limit probably won't come into the play, but they stand to lose big money on players like Tanaka. And while this is a big loss for Japanese clubs, it is not a big gain for MLB clubs.  It's impossible to imagine that teams would spend less via this arrangement.

While the posting fee is capped, the players contracts part of the equation will probably make up the difference, especially since guys like Tanaka will essentially be free agents with many teams bidding. Small-market teams will still not be able to get the top posted players, although they'll be happy to see more of the transaction costs for big-market teams counted against the competitive balance tax.

Japanese players who make it through the process stand to get a much bigger chunk of the MLB club's money.  But with less incentive for teams to post them, many could lose out on years of a lucrative career in North America.  So just to sum things up, the Masahiro Tanaka saga will be a huge test of the posting system.

So the decision for Rakuten comes down to how much surplus value he will have to their team.  One way to think about this is one season at a time. Would Tanaka be worth more than $25 MM ($20MM posting fee + about $5 MM in salary) for them in 2014.  I don't know the answer, but it's not unrealistic that it could be yes. While NPB revenue (~$1.5 BB) is a fraction of MLB revenue, it is split among just 12 teams. While Rakuten has not traditionally been a top earner since it's entry as expansion team midway through the last decade, 2013's championship season may have helped bolster the club's income statement. But still, $25 MM is far more than any NPB player has ever made, and  likely too high an evaluation of Tanaka.

But if the team could still post him next year for a similar fee, then it's really a much simpler question.  There's no reason to believe the posting fee cap will be lowered, and unless Tanaka has a disastrous season, he would still bring the max amount.  It's likely even if he misses some time with injury, MLB teams still might be interested at a highly stomachable $20 MM. So yeah, it seems like Rakuten will be highly motivated to keep Tanaka for one more season.

The only hiccup could be Tanaka.  If he wants to pitch his age-25 season in MLB next season, he certainly will have some clout.  Rakuten would not want an ugly PR battle with their star. Although, contrary to what has been repeatedly in the US media, I'm not sure their would be public backlash to a team holding onto its best player after their first championship.  That's just not how it usually unfolds in sports.

But besides a publicity battle, Tanaka could simply hold out to gain leverage.  This would certainly make Rakuten more likely to post, or even trade him to another team that would.  Alternatively, some other agreement could be worked out. He could agree to a contract that takes him to full free agency, giving Rakuten two more years of his prime, and Tanaka the ability to essentially pocket the $20 MM posting fee.  These scenario's are a little far-fetched, but with the perverse incentives of the new posting systems, they are not out of the question.

The next few weeks should give us a great deal of information.  There will be further dialogue from  Rakuten on how much they value Tanaka.  MLB insiders will likely examine how he is valued stateside. At some point, there will likely be statements from Tanaka himself on where he wants to pitch.  He may very well wish to stay in Japan and earn a very comfortable paycheck for a few more years.  Or he may yearn for the brighter lights and even more comfortable paycheck that MLB teams can offer.  One way or another, we are going to learn a lot about the new posting system.



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Friday, December 13, 2013

Blogger Roundtable: Which League Does Soccer Threaten the Most?

Which North American sports league does soccer threaten the most? We gave our thoughts, so now it's your turn. Answer our poll at the top of the blog and then leave a comment at the bottom of this post explaining why.  

We all know that soccer is experiencing tremendous growth both in North America and abroad.  Powerful foreign soccer leagues clash with North American leagues' expansion overseas, while also carving out a chunk out a slice of the domestic sports market as well.  Soccer stacks up very well among Hispanics and young audiences, both favorable market segments.

MLS has also emerged onto the mainstream, with average attendances higher than that of the NBA or NHL.A mature MLS would almost certainly force a disruption in the traditional "Big Four" model of professional North American sports.

But the competition for viewers may not even be the greatest threat. Injury and cost concerns for youth participation have driven many athletes into soccer. Many parents choose soccer as an alternative to the physicality of football.  Others families may not be able or willing to pay for the significant expenses related to hockey and baseball at a young age.  If soccer can continue to win in the marketplace of youth participation, the consequences could be significant for other sports.

So here's the question for our blogger roundtable:

Which league does soccer threaten the most?

Matthew Hakimian- NFL

The NFL has to feel somewhat threatened by the growth of soccer in America. It seems like everyday more cases come out regarding players suing the league for health-related issues, including concussions. In turn, many American families are becoming reluctant in allowing their children to play such a physical sport. Moreover, it certainly does not help that we're one of the few nations in the world that refer to the NFL when talking about "football". 

Adam Malz- None

I don't think the growth of soccer is anywhere near the point of threatening any one of the four major sports leagues in the United States. It simply does not have the fan support that the MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL currently do. Also, the fact of the matter is that the U.S. level of competition of soccer is very far from what it is in Europe. Perhaps it will pose a threat in the future, but I don't see it being a major concern for any of the major four leagues for a while.

 John Zakour- None/MLB

I don't think soccer especially threatens any of the major American sports. I suppose if it could reach popularity levels of the big four in America, then we might have a conversation. That day is probably far enough away that the dynamic of the big four will likely be very different. Soccer still struggles to get highlights on ESPN, and the MLS is still a second tier league, at best. 


But, If I had to choose, I'd say soccer threatens MLB the most. The prototypical soccer player is most similar to the prototypical baseball player, as neither sport really has "size requirements" (soccer and baseball players still look like non-giants, unlike the NFL and NBA) and both tend to attract Hispanic and Asian audiences. But I'm grasping at straws here. I doubt Bud Selig is losing sleep over it. 

Stephen Rosen- MLB

The sad answer is MLB. The 2013 World Series was the least watched World Series by Americans under 18 EVER. There is no way around the fact that baseball does not have a young core group of fans to continue its growth into the next 20 years. Baseball suffers from long breaks and extremely slow moving pace. Unlike soccer which ever game is almost always under 2 hours, baseball can have a non-delayed 9 inning game take 4 hours. Lastly baseball has lost one of its coolest aspects in the post season the day time game. The 9:07 start to ever World Series games means most kids will be long asleep by the time the late innings arrive. 

MLS instead went with a 4PM Saturday start to its classic MLS final on Saturday between Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake that everyone could watch. Despite the fact the game went through extra time and a shootout it was still over by 8PM when every kid was awake. Major League Baseball may be America's pastime but soon it will be past its time as a major American sport.

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Thursday, December 12, 2013

MLB and Youtube


In order to improve their appeal to young people, Major League Baseball needs to make up for lost time on YouTube. For years the MLB kept their video content off of YouTube, disallowing anyone from putting MLB footage on their own accounts. The first video on the league’s official YouTube channel didn’t get posted until after the 2010 season. 


Both the NHL and NBA posted their first videos during their 2006-2007 seasons. These leagues also allow other users to post their content without fear of copyright consequences. The NFL does not have an official YouTube channel, but it’s the NFL and they will always reign as kings of popularity in America, so it really doesn’t matter what the do on YouTube.

Why am I using YouTube to illustrate my point? Because YouTube is awesome, time consuming and incredibly popular. It is particularly popular with younger, student, audiences. I can personally attest to many a nights where YouTube’s NBA videos were my procrastination method of choice. One related search lead to another, and soon I had wasted hours and given up on whatever assignment I was supposed to have been doing (Just kidding, I go to Cornell, I’ve never done something like that). I’m putting my money on the fact that at substantial portion of my readers have had similar experiences..

Video surfing on the internet allows fans to watch highlights, follow their teams, admire their favorite players, get excited for upcoming matchups, etc. The inability of the MLB to properly use the internet to help gain interest in their league is emphasized by the discrepancy between the view counts between their videos and those of other sports. Compare video A and video B. Both are videos of incredibly stupid plays made by Bay Area teams (share the same market and fan base), yet one has received about 5 times more views than the other.

The NBA and NHL have used their YouTube success have helped contribute to an increase in their overall TV ratings. Hockey’s popularity drastically dipped after they skipped the 2004-2005 season, the 2006 finals drew abysmal ratings. Each year after the ratings slowly increased until they culminated in last season’s epic success. Baseball, however, has not seen any increase in ratings since the advent of YouTube. The NBA Finals’ ratings have increased from the pre-YouTube era and have drawn two of its best ratings since Jordan has a Bull during the Game 7s of 2010 and 2013. There are plenty of other factors at play here, I just do not think internet competency should be dismissed.

The NBA’s internet prowess spawned from YouTube, but did not remain there. Because their page has been so popular for so long (8x the amount of subscribers as the MLB and NHL combined), they have won the battle for overall social media popularity. The Association has more Twitter and Instagram followers than any other North American pro sports league, including the NFL. Social Media and young people are tied at the seam. Therefore likes today transform in to ticket sales and tv viewership in the future.

What baseball needs to do in order to make up for their dormant YouTube years is simply to bolster their current promising internet publicity campaigns. The MLB Fan Cave for instance has over 2/3 as many Instagram followers as the NHL. If the MLB does this and promotes its web endeavors to a greater extent then it will surely see improvements in its social media presence and will subsequently see an increase in the league’s popularity as a whole.

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Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Blogger Roundtable: Brazil 2014 or Rio 2016?

Which sporting event in Brazil would you rather attend: The 2014 FIFA World Cup or The 2016 Summer Olympics? Please give your opinion by answering the poll at the top of the page and share your thoughts in the comments section.

All eyes will be on Brazil in two of the next three summers as the country is set to host what are arguably the two biggest international sporting competitions in the world. Many people dream about getting the chance to go to either event, but if you could only go to one, which one would you select?

Here's what our bloggers had to say:



Adam Malz - Olympics

I would much rather attend the 2016 Summer Olympics in Brazil. The Olympics offer a variety of sports and the same level of pride in your country that the World Cup offers.


Matthew Hakimian - World Cup


Despite the aura the Summer Olympics carries, there is no single sporting event that can match the excitement of the World Cup. It is the pinnacle of the most popular sport outside the U.S. as the world's best soccer players vie to obtain national glory. In addition, from start to finish the World Cup is twice as long as the Summer Olympics (32 to 16 days). As a huge soccer fan though, my answer is likely biased due to the fact that the quality of Olympic soccer doesn't even compare to the level of competitiveness featured in the World Cup.

Thomas Kroner - Olympics

I would rather go to the Summer Olympics in Brazil simply because America is considerably better at nearly every other sport in the world than we are at soccer. If I’m spending the money to travel and stay in another continent then I want to see America succeed. The last thing I want is some little Portuguese person coming up to me talking trash about the result of a game.


Max Fogle - Olympics


After seeing the World Cup draw for the USMNT, I'm tempted to say the Olympics. While I would like to see the German national team and the Ronaldo national team, I wouldn't be able to take another defeat to Ghana. I would rather get better use on all of my star spangled paraphernalia and watch a bunch of Americans win at sports that I usually do not watch. It would be Rio 2016 for me.


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Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Blogger Roundtable: Which League Best Selects and Trains Talent



Which league bests selects and trains talent? We gave our thoughts, so now it's your turn. Answer our poll at the top of the blog and then leave a comment at the bottom of this post explaining why. 

Inspired by their learning in human resource courses, our bloggers took a stab at what can be a major consideration for professional sports leagues.  Analyzing how leagues select and train talent may seem a little abstract.  But scouting and developing players is a very real concept. 

Which of the four leagues best utilize other professional and amateur networks to identify suitable candidates.  Which league is most efficient and effective in hiring the most qualified players. Between the big four, which has the best developmental system in place?

That's what our bloggers tried to answer.

Adam Malz- MLB

In my opinion, the MLB does the best job identifying and developing talent. The minor league system is very successful and players are able to learn the ropes and improve the most. Players do not make it to the major league level unless they work hard and absolutely deserve it.

Thomas Kroner- MLB

I think Major League Baseball does the best job of hiring and training its players. The depth of their drafts allows it so players who aren't the top prospects to get an in with the organization and have the possibility of moving up in the ranks. The NBA D-League pales in comparison to the effectiveness and popularity of Minor League Baseball

Joshua Goldstein- NBA

Due to its relatively low amount of professional players in the league and its smaller draft size, the NBA has the most effective method of identifying its players. While football teams have over 50 people on their rosters, basketball teams can only have 13 active players on their rosters at any given time. Also, the NFL draft has seven rounds, while the NBA draft only has two rounds. Since NBA teams hire and therefore seek out less players than other sport franchises, the NBA has the least arduous job finding suitable employees.

Ben Cantor- NFL

I believe the NFL has the most effective method of identifying and developing talent in comparison to the other major sports leagues. The fact that prospective football players must be three years removed from high school provides scouts with ample opportunity to evaluate their ability in college. Furthermore, NFL organizations employ many specialized coaches, who represent valuable assets for developing young talent.


The NBA's developmental league is a valuable resource for young players to gain experience against top competition. However, the nature of basketball is such that rookies are often expected to contribute significantly right away, and failure to meet high expectation can hamper a young player’s development. The MLB’s minor league system allows young players to hone their skills against lesser competition. However, baseball’s scouting system is steeped in outdated traditions, and it’s flaws were detailed in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball.

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Monday, December 9, 2013

The Weekly Rant: MLB Players' Salaries and the National TV Revenues




Offseason Spending is up this year. While that is not unusual, or particularly incisive, the increase looks like it will be kind of dramatic this winter. Check out Jeff Todd's piece on MLBTR for trends thus far.

Many have attributed the higher prices to the rich national television contracts MLB has signed in the past 18 months. These new TV deals are likely the largest factor in any increased spending.  A host of other issues could be at play, but anytime a sports league receives a new windfall of revenue, some of that will go to the players.

But just how much of this new revenue will find its way to players? 

A closer look is needed at both the new TV contracts as well as the relationship between players' salaries and league revenue.  Maury Brown has a breakdown of the new set of TV deals, and gives his insights on what they mean for spending. Basically, between the deals with ESPN, Fox, and TBS, MLB stands to make $1.5 Billion annually over the next 8 years.  That's an increase of approximately $788 MM per year. 

If you divide that figure amongst the thirty teams, you are left with each ballclub receiving a nice fat check for over $25 MM every season.  It's easy to see that figure and then comment on why Team X should go out and sign Player Y, since Team X obviously has the money for it. 

But this simple math doesn't account for a great deal of issues.  First, the exact breakdown of how this money will be paid out by the networks is unknown.  If the contracts really will pay exactly $1.5 Billion every season, then the deals will decrease in value over the length of the eight years.  In 2021, $1.5 Billion would be worth just $1.175 Billion at 3% inflation (which may be more than actual inflation, but less than "baseball" inflation). 

The contracts could start at a figure lower than $1.5 Billion and rise to a higher amount, that would still result in $12 Billion total. This would mean the total teams receive in 2014 could be substantially lower than $25 MM.  It this is not the case, teams should be hesitant of spending all of their new revenue immediately. Future spending will have decrease, relatively speaking, at least without other other increasing revenue streams (Local TV Contracts could be part of the answer here). 

So besides the effects of inflation, what other factors could limit the ability of teams to spend the average annual value of the contract in 2014? 

The Commissioner's Office could certainly take a chunk of the revenue for different initiatives.  I don't think too sizable a chunk could be taken from the teams in this way, but investments in baseball infrastructure internationally could certainly get expensive.  I'm sure there are many costs associated with running a professional sports league that will increase in future years as well (expanded replay systems).  Overall though, it seems unlikely the Commissioner's office would spend more than a few million of each team's share in any one year.

Individual clubs may also spend a significant portion of the funds on other baseball-related purposes other than player payroll.  Increasing budgets for scouting and development, front office personnel, as well as coaching staffs will all likely take a bite out of the player's share. But non-baseball investments are likely the greatest factors in why each club's payroll will not rise by $25 MM this offseason. These could take the form of stadium renovations or investment in other properties. 

MLB Revenues have increased fivefold since 1995. Players' salaries have increased dramatically as well, but not nearly at the same rate.  While league-wide revenues equate to approximately $7.5 Billion, team payrolls account for closer to $3 Billion. This mean's players account for just just 40% of revenues, a dramatic drop from a couple of decades ago, and ten percentage points less than players' shares in the other Big Four sports. 

While it's plausible players receive more than 40% of the new National TV Revenues, there's no real reason to expect them to share a much greater percentage.  Owners would more readily pocket some of these profits, or reinvest them into improvements to stadiums.  MLB is likely to even proactively educate club personnel on the best ways to spend these new revenues.

In the end, it seems unlikely that teams will spend anywhere close to all of the $25 MM  increase in national TV revenues.  A more conservative guess would be moderate increases of less than $10 MM in 2014.  Local TV deals and other revenues are what might allow some clubs to responsibly spend more than these totals. 

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Sunday, December 8, 2013

Batting Leadoff: Is Making Offseason Headlines a Good Thing?


This post originally appeared on Batting Leadoff. Batting Leadoff is a website dedicated to providing readers with premium baseball content. Posts from the site will appear regularly on the Sports Business Society Blog (view the information in the sidebar for updated information.)

-By Alex Smith

As we enter the 2013 offseason, we’re going to hear a lot about the free agent activities of Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Shin-Soo Choo, as well as possible trades involving David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. However, it’s likely that the signings and trades of other lesser-known players will have a bigger impact on the outcome of the 2014 season than the signings and possible trades of these superstars.

If you look at recent history, it’s the teams who have made shrewd value driven acquisitions rather than a lot of noise that have made the largest jumps in the standings on a year-to-year basis. If we compare the standings from 2012 to 2013, the Red Sox made the grandest jump in wins at 28, the Cleveland Indians made the second largest leap at 24, the Royals the third highest at 18, and the Pirates the fourth greatest leap at 15 wins.

In case you didn’t notice, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels, despite being last winter’s biggest headliners, failed to make this list. In fact, the Blue Jays only won 1 more game in 2013 than they did in 2012 and the Angels actually lost 11 more games. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds also made a lot of news around the blogosphere last winter, but the Dodgers broke the bank to make sure that spending was worth it and the Reds simply added an established outfielder in Choo to an already playoff-bound core.

So what does this all teach us? First, let’s analyze how the Red Sox, Indians, Royals, and Pirates made their jumps to the top of the standings. Red Sox fans were frustrated last offseason with the lack of a notable moves after getting rid of the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford. However, they received fantastic value in the signings of Shane Victorino, Koji Uehara, and Mike Napoli. This value, combined with healthier seasons from Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, the reemergence of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and David Ortiz’s ability to fend off father time, led them to a championship.

The Indians made some headlines last winter by signing outfielders Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, yet it wasn’t just these signings that led the Tribe to earn one of the wildcard births. Between them, they only posted a WAR of 4.4 in 2013, 1.8 WAR below Michael Bourn’s personal 2012 WAR. The Indians were successful because Jason Kipnis broke out, Yan Gomes and Ryan Raburn far exceeded expectations, and Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Scott Kazmir all turned their careers around. In essence, rather than the noteworthy signings of Swisher and Bourn making the quintessential difference, it was the less noteworthy acquisitions of Kazmir, Gomes, and Raburn along with improvements from players they already had, that led Cleveland’s turnaround.

Of the four teams that made the biggest leaps in wins, the Royals are, in a way, the outlier. Their “big” trade last winter actually did pay off, at least in the context of 2013. By acquiring James Shields, the Royals were able to shore up what otherwise would have been a questionable pitching staff and win 90 games. The down-side to this, though, is the consequences that will come with the short-sightedness of the Shields trade.

Even though the Royals won 90 games, they gave up Wil Myers in the process. Myers could be a top five player in baseball in a few years and the Royals would have had six years of team control. Instead, they received two years of James Shields and they failed to make the postseason in year one. Yet, just stating that the Royals improvements can be attributed to Shields would be foolish. Like the Indians and Red Sox, the Royals also benefitted significantly from unheralded signings such as Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are the best example of how value-driven acquisitions can turn a franchise around. Without making too many national news outlets last year, the Pirates smartly picked up Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano via free agency and then traded for Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau at mid-season to help fill holes in their lineup. It’s also important to note the chance Pittsburgh took on A.J. Burnett the year before that has paid off mightily. It is through these moves that the Pirates have been able to find effective supporting players for their home-grown superstars like NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez.

Now that we’ve analyzed where it went right for the aforementioned four teams, let’s look at where it went wrong for the Blue Jays and Angels. The Blue Jays pitching staff was a wreck all year with no consistency behind Dickey and Buehrle, both of whom were only mediocre. Offensively, Reyes only played in 93 games and their lineup simply had too many holes around him. It’s hard to go anywhere when you only have two players in your lineup who played in more than 110 games and posted positive WARs.

The Los Angeles Angels were supposed to have one of the best lineups in baseball in 2013 after the addition of Josh Hamilton. All winter, fans were giddy about getting to see a top of the lineup featuring Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Trumbo. Yet, Pujols’ injury problems caused him to struggle until he eventually was forced to have season-ending surgery and Hamilton never lived up to expectations. However, the Angels would have needed both of these players to be absolutely spectacular if they were going to overcome their pitching deficiencies. The Angels had the fourth highest xFIP in the league and the 7th highest ERA, and only C.J. Wilson pitched more than 155 innings for the year.

After analyzing what went right and what went wrong in terms of 2012-13 offseason acquisitions, a major theme becomes clear: star players are nice and are good for building excitement going into a season, but filling holes is more important. These players, who can often be acquired cheaply and fly under the radar, serve as the glue for any team with the intentions of contending in the postseason.

The Oakland A’s, who built a team around such undervalued assets (they made their jump from 2011 to 2012 so it’s not chronicled in this article), are a perfect example of how having no holes can be more effective than trying to compensate for holes with star players. If you’re going to make a headline move, however, you must be adding to an existing core (see Cincinnati Reds) or you must be willing to spend like the current Los Angeles Dodgers or 2000s New York Yankees. If your team’s not doing this, they’re either selling out on their future to succeed (see Kansas City Royals) or only trying to sell tickets without caring about winning.

Knowing this trend, I encourage all fans to follow where players like Bronson Arroyo, Dan Haren, and David Murphy end up. Because while it will be fun seeing where Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, David Price, and Troy Tulowitzki land (and they will all definitely impact the 2014 season) it is the signings that go barely noticed that could be making the biggest difference next fall.

Alex Smith is a junior in the School of Industrial and Labor Relations at Cornell University. In addition to being the founder of Batting Leadoff, he works as a scout/field manager for Perfect Game USA and sits on the planning committee for the 2013 Ivy Sports Symposium. He is a relief pitcher on the Cornell varsity baseball team and hopes to one day pursue a career in baseball operations, player development, or amateur scouting. Contact him at aws77@cornell.edu or follow him on twitter @RealAlexSmith19.

This post originally appeared on Batting Leadoff. Batting Leadoff is a website dedicated to providing readers with premium baseball content. Posts from the site will appear regularly on the Sports Business Society Blog (view the information in the sidebar for updated information).

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Saturday, December 7, 2013

Blog Updates


It's been a busy semester for the blog, and we wanted to take this time to share some of our current and future plans.  First off, thank you for reading!  It makes all the hard work the staff puts in much more rewarding to see the response from readers.  We hope you continue to come to this site for daily sports business and other content.  Now, on to some announcements and updates moving forward:

We're very pleased to announce a partnership with Batting Leadoff, a site delivering premium baseball content.  This will allow us to increase both the quality and quantity of our content.  Look for Batting Leadoff posts to appear regularly in the near future (Their section in the sidebar will be continually updated!).  Make sure you check out their site at http://battingleadoff.com/.

Secondly, our updated Contributors page contains all sorts of interesting information on our staff.  Give it a look to get to know our featured bloggers, editors, and other contributors!

Also, a new page designed especially for events and alumni is on the way.  With the large number of club activities and events from the past semester, we decided we couldn't fit all of the related content into the sidebar anymore!  Look for this page to go up in coming weeks!

If you haven't already, try liking Cornell SBS on Facebook, and following us on Twittter.  All of the information is right in the sidebar.  If you're at Cornell and want to get involved in the club, just send a quick email to maf373@cornell.edu.

Finally, we'd like to ask for your patience over the next few weeks.  With finals and busy winter breaks bearing down on our staff, we anticipate a decrease in weekend content.  We hope you keep checking back with us though, as there is more exciting new content in the works!

Thanks again for reading!




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Friday, December 6, 2013

Top 10: Greatest Upsets




These moments are known for their underdog stories, as well as their significance to their respective eras in sports history. Here are my top 10 greatest sports upsets of all time:


10. 1982: Division II Chaminade upsets top ranked Virginia.

In 1982, Division II school Chaminade defeated college basketball’s top ranked division I school Virginia 77-72 in one of the greatest regular season upsets in college basketball history. Virginia ended the season ranked as a top 5 team in the nation.

9. 1950: Miracle on Grass


In the 1950 World Cup, the U.S led by Joe Gaetjens upset the top ranked England soccer team 1-0. This is the U.S soccer team’s greatest victory of all time, and only one of the U.S Soccer's two career victories against the well-decorated English side.


8. 1983: Jim Valvano leads the 6th Seed Wolfpack to a giant victory.


In the 1983 NCAA Basketball National Championship game, the 6th seeded N.C. State Wolfpack defeated the top ranked Houston Cougars who were led by future NBA stars Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler.


7. 2007: Appalachian St. upsets fifth ranked Michigan


In 2007, Division I-AA Appalachian St. defeated the fifth ranked Wolverines in Ann Arbor by a score of 34-32 in one of the greatest upsets in college football history. This historic football game was the first time a FCS school defeated a ranked, Division 1 opponent.


6. 1994: 8th seed Denver dismantles number one Seattle in 5 games

In 1994, the Denver Nuggets became the first 8 seed to beat a 1 seed in a playoff matchup as they beat the Seattle Supersonics and moved unto the NBA Playoffs’ Quarterfinals. Seattle, who had a 63-19 record during the regular season, lost three straight games to blow a 2-0 lead in the series, in what became the first 8th over 1st seed defeat in NBA Playoffs history.


5. 1990: Douglas over Tyson

In one of the greatest upsets in the history of boxing, Buster Douglas knocked out 42-1 world champion Mike “the baddest man on the planet” Tyson in the tenth round.


4. 1969: Namath leads the Jets over the Colts for the title


Super Bowl III was one of the greatest games in NFL history. The NY Jets, led by quarterback Joe Namath, defeated the heavily favored (18 points) Baltimore Colts to win their only super bowl title to this date.


3. 1969: The Miracle Mets

The New York Mets were established right before the 1962 season. The Mets were below 500. In each of their first 7 seasons, and inn 5 of their first 7 seasons, they lost 100 games. Going into the 1969 season, the Mets were a 100-1 underdog to win the World Series. After winning 100 games in the regular season, the Mets went on to beat the favored Baltimore Orioles in 5 games to finish off the more surprising season in baseball history.


2. 2008: Super Bowl XLII

The 2008 regular season was a perfect one for the New England Patriots. They finished the season 16-0, and they were sitting comfortably as the Super Bowl favorite. After winning 2 more games to advance to the super bowl and become 18-0, they were defeated by the New York Giants by the score of 17-14, thanks to late game heroics by Eli Manning and David Tyree. Even though all avid sports fans know this play, see the bottom of the article for some nice reminiscing (your welcome Giants fans).


1. 1980: Miracle on Ice

USA Vs. USSR. Democracy Vs. Communism. As the Cold War was at its peak, the U.S Hockey team defeated the legendary Soviet Hockey squad by the score of 4-2. So why was this such a large upset. Well, the American team was made up of college players that had not ever played with each other while the Soviet team was made up of professionals that had won eight of the last nine gold medals.

Enough Said. USA!

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Thursday, December 5, 2013

The Magic Touch: The Success of Guangzhou Evergrande (Part II)


This is Part II of a two-part post on Chinese soccer club Guangzhou Evergrande.  To read Part I, click here.

Some people think that the success of big-spending football clubs is beneficial because it can bring immediate prosperity, while others believe that this pattern is not sustainable. However, people may cannot label this phenomenon good or bad since to a certain extent, the occurrence of these new operations in the sports industry is inevitable.
But in China, it is widely acknowledged that the success of Guangzhou Evergrande has brought much more benefits than harm to the stagnant Chinese soccer industry (and even to the nation as a whole). Most importantly, the success of Guangzhou Evergrande has rekindled Chinese belief in soccer. During the past ten years, Chinese soccer teams constantly went downhill and most fans became pessimistic of the future of Chinese soccer. Empty stands were common in matches of the Chinese Super League.

However, things have changed as mighty Guangzhou Evergrande reaches new milestones like winning the triple crown of three different cups in a single season. Before the final of AFC Champions League, all 40,000 tickets were sold out in three days. More surprisingly, many eager fans spent 3,000 yuan (nearly $500) buying tickets that were originally sold at 400 yuan (about $65). It was impossible to see these scenarios outside the stadium five years ago, and people believe this desire is the key to further development.

The sold-out Final

Furthermore, because of the enthusiasm and hope of soccer lovers, an increasing number of parents would like their children to play soccer and to become professional players. From a well-known Chinese reporter’s words, Ma Dexin, there are only 42 professional players in the U-15 Chinese national team now. But in the next several years, with the profound change in people’s attitudes, the talents pool and growing youth teams could solve the problem of insufficient numbers of young players.

 More importantly, in light of the success of Guangzhou Evergrande, an increasing amount of people and companies will be encouraged to invest in soccer industry because of its relative profitability. The effect of advertisement and the possibility of replicating Evergrande’s success could drive numerous firms and individuals into the space. Because of the professional-style management group at Evergrande, the club has managed to remain financially healthy despite the massive spending.  Its expected that the club will soon be very profitable.

We also need to strongly point out that because advertisement, the Evergrande group has greatly increased its turnover. Before it purchased the soccer club, its turnover was approximately 30.3 billion yuan (nearly $5 Billion) per year. In contrast, during the last year, the number has been increased to 92.3 billion yuan (over $15 Billion). In view of the bright and prosperous future of Chinese soccer industry, numerous companies may want to enter the market.

This is Part II of a two-part post on Chinese soccer club Guangzhou Evergrande.  To read Part I, click here.

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