ILRSBS Goes to Phoenix: Part III

The team taking in the beautiful Phoenix skyline.

This is Part Two of a three-part series following the ILRSBS Case Competition team's trip to the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. (Click here to read Part One, and click here to read Part Two.)

When all was said and done, Hudson, Mike, and I were happy with our research and preparation. As we went to sleep at 3am, Phoenix time the night morning before presenting, we knew we had put all the effort possible into the case. Using an already overused sports analogy, we left it all out on the field.

Our team was scheduled to compete first that morning, at 9:30 sharp. In front of three judges from teams such as the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians, we were ready to make our pitch as part of a 20-minute presentation and 10-minute Q & A. Perhaps the most eye-opening part of the trip was just being able to stand in front of a room of extremely intelligent people and watch them as they listened to what we had to say. They truly did care, and the passion they have for the game was on full display. Often times we have these “epiphany” moments in our lives when we say, “How sweet was that?” I know I can speak for the three of us that one day, looking back; this certainly may be one of those moments.

Our team wound up finishing as the runner-ups in the Undergraduate division, as the eventual champions from NYU took first place. In the graduate/law division, Pepperdine University took top billing. For a three-man team, we were extremely proud of our accomplishment, and while we would’ve loved to win, the experience and learning we were able to participate in was recognition enough.

In addition to the Diamond Dollars Competition, the three of us were fortunate enough to interact up close and personal with some of the leading minds in the entire industry. Through various panels, and networking sessions, Hudson, Mike and I were able to meet top executives in Jed Hoyer, Rick Hahn, and Jerry DiPoto. Brian Kenny of MLB Network was one of the panel moderators, and throughout the conference we were able to connect and speak with various professionals from companies such as Fangraphs, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and other Major League clubs such as the Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, and more.

Executives Daniels, Hoyer, and Hahn.

Perhaps the highlight of our week, however was getting to meet a fellow Cornellian that each of us one day hope to aspire to. Speaking with Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels was surreal. His advice was not only invaluable and thoughtful. Our two takeaways from him for were to watch as much baseball as possible, and to stay humble. As he put it, the game isn’t big on “self-promoters.”

The three of us with fellow Cornellian, Jon Daniels.

When all was said and done, the three of us had an amazing time. After a quick red-eye flight home, accompanied with a daylight-savings-time-change, we found ourselves back in reality of Cornell life.

As the inaugural Cornell case competition team members, a certain sense of pride exists in what we were able to accomplish. We look forward eagerly to next year when we send a few more students and continue to prove that the Ivy League knows its baseball.

Here are quick takes of our trips from my team members:

“It was a tremendous opportunity to be able to go to the SABR Conference and present our case in front of a group of highly regarded individuals within the baseball community. The conference itself was much more intimate and laid-back than others I had been to which allowed me the opportunity to speak with several Major League GMs, MLB Network Analyst Brian Kenny, members of the baseball analytics community, and a host of executives within Major League baseball. The only drawback to the conference, or more plainly the city of Phoenix in general, was the dearth of carne asada steak” –Mike Parnell

Outside the beautiful Chase Field in Phoenix.

“Participating in the SABR Case Competition was a great experience. The opportunity to spend a few days working on such a fascinating case was awesome, and getting to present our work to MLB industry leaders was truly amazing. The conference brought together hundreds of forward-thinking baseball brains, and so many people brought great ideas to the discussion. Being a part of that conference was so much fun, and although we didn't win the competition, I can’t wait to go back next year.” –Hudson Belinsky 

Oh, and we also got to take in a few WBC games!

We hope you all enjoyed this look into our trip to Phoenix. We look forward to making this event a key part of the organization moving forward. For any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email me at gmc74@cornell.edu.

ILRSBS Goes to Phoenix: Part II

This is Part Two of a three-part series following the ILRSBS Case Competition team's trip to the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. (Click here to read Part One.)

As mentioned previously, in projecting Mike Trout, we had an amazing talent on our hands. Looking at his WAR totals gave us a Hall of Fame type player, someone who would continue to produce at an MVP level into his early 30s. It became pretty clear to us that there would be no team with the resources available to trade for this type of player, so we turned our focus to figuring out what type of contract offer we could confidently extend to Trout.

$440,000,000 was the value of Trout’s production value to the Angels, yet, this number failed to account for risk. In any long-term agreement, each side takes on inherent risk. There are many circumstances in which the deal could turn out poorly. Injury, and lack of performance are the two main factors, yet in this case we also needed to account for the value of making life-changing money. Essentially it all boiled down to the guarantee of big money in the face of various risk factors.


After trying a couple different strategies, our team decided on generating a regression equation to determine a “discount rate” to Trout’s production value. We compared recent (since 2000) contract extensions, and examined the service time that each player had accumulated at the time of signing. After looking at the player’s production value ($4.5 million x WAR total = Expected Production) we plotted a regression against the service time at the time of extension. Our belief was that the more service time, or the more “established” a player was, the closer the player’s actual contract would be to his expected production value.

The extension data that helped us create our Regression.

Using the regression data we came up with the following equation: Discount Rate = -0.14511x + 2.000839. Plugging in the service time, we were able to establish a fair contract offer for Trout. Our offer to Trout would be eight years for $140 million, yet we would be willing to accept an offer up to $204 million over that time. With an agreement in this range, the Angels would lock-up an (projected) MVP-caliber player into his age 32 season. They would secure a face of the franchise, and they would not have to break the bank or mortgage their future success or payroll flexibility. From Trout’s perspective, he would get life-changing money, his first big contract that would now be guaranteed, even in the face of injury or lack of performance. 



Like the old game, Deal or No Deal, the more risk present, the more of a discount applied. By examining recent extension data, we confirmed our intuitive belief that this was the case. While players may be leaving some money on the table by taking extensions early on in their careers, they do so in order to receive security and peace of mind. In the end, the “Trout dilemma” boiled down to this issue of tradeoffs.


Angel's owner Arte Moreno will ultimately hold the
final decision on what to do with Mike Trout.

As a final piece to our presentation, we analyzed how the Angels could reasonably fit Trout’s contract into their current salary structure and obligations. By doing this, we also found that the distribution of money to Trout could vary year-to-year. In doing this, the Angels would maintain competitiveness (as a projected 90-win team) and still be able to retain their star at a fair price.

Check back tomorrow to hear how our team did and to hear about some of the other experiences from our weekend in Phoenix.

ILRSBS Charity Dodgeball Tournament to Benefit SEEDS

The ILR Sports Business Society will be hosting a Charity Dodgeball Tournament that will take place on Saturday, March 30th from 4:00-7:00pm in the Ramin Room in Bartels Hall.  Proceeds from the event will benefit SEEDS (Sports for Economic and Educational Development in Senegal). To sign up, please complete the Registration Form.  More information is also available on Facebook.

The ILR Sports Business Society has chosen SEEDS, Sports for Economic and Educational Development in Senegal, to be the organization to benefit from the club's Charity Dodgeball Tournament.  SEEDS is an extremely worthwhile and deserving beneficiary of ILRSBS's social impact activities.  Since its founding in 1998, SEEDs has worked to provide educational opportunities through the use of sports.  SEEDS was the vision of founder Amadou Gallo Fall, who used basketball to gain access to a college education.  Today, the foundation describes its mission as:

SEEDS uses sports as a vehicle to inspire, empower, and support a holistic development of promising African youth, preparing them to become global citizens and lead positive transformation in Senegal, Africa, and the world.

The organization works to accomplish these goals largely through the operation of SEEDS Academy, a college-preparatory boarding school in Thies, Senegal.  Currently, the academy can provide free tuition, room, board, and meal plans to some 30 student-athletes.  SEEDS Academy was created to provide Senegalese boys with a year-round, rigorous academic, athletic and leadership development curriculum.  Since its inception in 2003, more than 20 alumni have gone on to academic and athletic pursuits beyond the academy.  Because of the foundation's success and visibility SEEDS was featured in ESPN Films' "Elevate" (trailer below).



More information is available on the SEEDS Website and on their Facebook page.  The organization can be contacted at  Info@seedproject.org, or to donate visit their online donation page.

ILRSBS Goes to Phoenix: Part I

Hello, Phoenix. Hello, SABR.

This is Part One of a three-part series following the ILRSBS Case Competition team's trip to the SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix, Arizona.

Just two weeks ago, three members of ILRSBS were able to take part in a unique opportunity. The 2^nd annual Diamond Dollars Case Competition in Phoenix, Arizona provided a platform for Mike Parnell, Hudson Belinsky, and myself to showcase just what Cornell and the Sports Business Society is all about.

Held as part of the SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) Analytics Conference, our case tasked us with developing, answering, and presenting our recommendations for a real-life baseball operations question. Last year, the case dealt with a “buy or sell” type question surrounding the Washington Nationals. This year, the focus was all on one of baseball’s most intriguing players: Mike Trout.

Yes, baseball’s most popular, mystifying and perhaps soon-to-be loved player was the focus of our entire case. You can imagine the excitement that came over our three-man team upon learning that we would be tasked with developing an appropriate contract extension for Mr. Trout. How fitting it was that days earlier, the real life Angels decided to renew the reigning AL MVPsuperstar at just $20,000 above the league minimum. As you can imagine, our first recommendation was simply, don’t do that!

Mike, Hudson, and Gabe working on the plane.

But in all seriousness, after receiving our case on Sunday morning, Mike, Hudson and I had four days to put together a cohesive 20-minute presentation on which to be judged. In the case, which was actually set following the 2013 season, Mike Trout went off for a 8.4 WAR season in which the Angels fell to the world champion Nationals in six games. In this scenario, the Angels would have one more season of Trout under cost-control as well as three years of control in which he would be arbitration eligible. Trout would become a free agent in 2017.

Placed in a position to advise Jerry Dipoto, the Angels GM, our team had to develop a contract proposal. Our three options were to trade Trout, to extend him over the short-term, or to provide him with a long-term extension. Playing into this decision would be our expected production of Trout, the value in dollars that he would be worth, the construction of the team around him, and the risk involved in such a contract. With the facts established, we set out to develop the best decision possible.

Through the next 4 days, we slogged through the massive amounts of data and processes needed to make our case to Mr. Dipoto. I’ll spare you the details, and just hit on two of the major highlights in our process.

The first is the manner in which we decided to project Mike Trout’s production for the next ten seasons (through age 32). As a team, we developed models for players similar to Trout in the three facets of the game, hitting, base running, and defense. Our samples were different for each of these categories, but they included players that met specific criteria for a player of Trout’s caliber and production. After developing an “aging curve” for a player such as Trout, we developed a Monte Carlo simulation to help predict the results for 10,000 seasons of Trout based on the previous three seasons’ production (weighted 45%, 30%, 25%). We continued the process until we wound up with ten seasons of Mike Trout production. What we got was one of the best players of all-time. To boil the numbers down a bit, Trout put up the following WAR (Wins Above Replacement) totals for the years 2014-2024: 8, 11, 11, 8, 11, 9, 9, 8, 8, 8, 7. Wow. Just. Wow.

Yes, Mike Trout, you are that good.

After we took Trout’s production value, we then assumed each win to be worth $4.5 million on the open market. Multiplying this number by his production we determined his value to be worth approximately $440,000,000 over the course of ten seasons.

Of course we couldn’t reasonably give Mike Trout $440,000,000, could we? Check back later this week to find out how we accounted for risk, what our final proposal was, what the judges thought, and how we spent the rest of our time in Phoenix!

LeBron: How Much is He Worth?

Apparently, Lebron James feels underpaid.

On February 1st, he said the following:

"I have not had a full max deal yet in my career — that's a story untold. I don't get (credit) for it. That doesn't matter to me; playing the game is what matters to me. Financially, I'll sacrifice for the team. It shows for some of the top guys, it isn't all about money. That's the genuine side of this, it's about winning. I understand that."

LeBron followed this statement by having arguably one of the greatest months in NBA history. LeBron scored 29.7 points per game on 64.1% shooting with 7.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.6 blocks per game as the Miami Heat went 13-0. LeBron’s month of February put him on pace to have his greatest season of his exceptional career. LeBron is on pace to join the exclusive club of Oscar Roberston, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan by averaging 28 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists per game for a whole season while shooting over 50% from the floor. LeBron, if he can continue his current pace, would be the first of the four to hit all of those marks while shooting over 55%.  LeBron is the ninth highest paid player in the NBA this year making $17.5 million, less than the maximum contract. Even if LeBron had signed for the maximum, he would be extremely underpaid. So what is LeBron really worth?

Even if LeBron were paid the highest amount allowed by the NBA, he would earn approximately an extra 1.8 million per year.  LeBron then would still only be the sixth highest paid player in the NBA, and LeBron is definitely better than the NBA’s sixth best player. LeBron is the best player in the NBA, and if he could be paid any amount, what would it be? To understand what LeBron is truly worth, you have to assume that basketball did not have a salary cap and were like baseball in that players could be paid as much as possible.

The first place to start is LeBron’s own comments on the situation. During the lockout of the  summer of 2011, LeBron stated it would take $50 million for a European team to sign him until the NBA resumed play. That estimate appears to be much closer to his actual worth than his current salary.

The best way to determine Lebron's worth is to determine what he is worth to the team in revenue, not just wins. The Miami Heat have sold out every home game since they signed LeBron. They went from fifteenth in the league attendance in the years before LeBron to being top five the past three years. The Cavaliers finished no worse than fifth in attendance the last five years LeBron played in Cleveland and have been nineteenth in the league the last two years of attendance.  LeBron fills the seats, yet he does not get paid for it. The Cavaliers have played three nationally televised games total the last two years while James' Miami Heat have played 52.

The amount of value LeBron James brings to the team goes beyond what he brings on the court.

The extra revenue he brings in terms of ticket sales, as well as the extra revenue that comes from the increased exposure for the Miami Heat brand is of a different magnitude than his salary. The Heat have a waiting list for corporate sponsors currently because of LeBron James. That doesn’t even account for the fact that LeBron’s Miami Heat jersey is currently the NBA's best selling and that the amount of extra Heat merchandise that is sold because of his presence on the team. Although it is impossible to articulate excactly what LeBron James means to his team, it is obviously more than what he just brings on the court.

Since LeBron’s comments about being underpaid, there have been numerous guesses on what he would be worth in an open market. Economists from the University of Oklahoma put the value of LeBron at $40-50 million per year. Bleacher Report’s Jared Wade in a February article put the guess at about $65 million per year. Further, ESPN's Bill Simmons postured that LeBron is worth $75 million per year. Regardless of what LeBron James would be worth in the open market, there is one thing everyone can agree upon:  LeBron James is definitely underpaid. 

From The Booth #5: Big Red Baseball Predictions

Junior Chris Cruz

This is the fourth post in a series featuring the Cornell At Bat broadcasting team. These posts will appear throughout the Fall and Spring semesters. For part one of the series, click here. For part two, click here. For part three, click here. For part four, click here. 

The beauty of college baseball is that from one year to the next, any player has the chance to step into a vacated role left behind by a graduating senior to make a name for himself and become an integral contributor to his team’s success. It also gives players who only had a few games to show off their skills a chance to step up to the plate and prove that they are indeed worthy of playing an important role on his team.

With the departure of the Class of 2012 and vacancies at many key positions (Brandon Lee leaving catcher, Frank Hager leaving first base, Marshall Yanzick leaving shortstop, and Brian Billigen leaving center field), the Big Red baseball players have the opportunity to compete for starting spots at arguably the most important positions on the diamond. However, it is not just positions that need to be filled, but leadership roles as well. After the jump, read my predictions regarding who will take advantage of their new opportunities and who will thrive on a team with many new mainstays.

Most Valuable Player: Chris Cruz

Cruz’s role at this point in time is pretty well defined: depending on how pre-season competition for positions and starting spots plays out, we can be sure that Cruz will be batting in the third spot or in the cleanup role. Becoming Cornell’s single-season leader in home runs (12) in just his sophomore year, Cruz has set the bar incredibly high for himself. But based on his confidence coming out of wood-bat play in the “Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League,” (league leader with 8 home runs,second in the league with a .569 slugging percentage, third in the league with 40 RBIs), there is no doubt that Cruz expects to continue showcasing his sheer power while cutting down on his strikeouts.

He also has a cannon for an arm out in right field, which will make opposing third base coaches cautious about sending runners around third to try and score. Cruz will undoubtedly have to make an adjustment at the plate, as his status as “the man” in the Big Red lineup might force pitchers to pitch around Cruz and have him chase pitches out of the zone. Just don’t make a mistake, or else Chris will be shifting into “Cruz control” as he rounds the bases.

To read the rest of Jesse Sherman's article, check at the Cornell At Bat blog!.

For more information on Cornell At Bat or if you want to get involved, contact Alex Gimenez email at ajg322@cornell.edu. For previous Cornell At Bat adventures, look here, here, here, here, and here.  

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Event Preview: Rachel Jacobson

On Tuesday, the ILR Sports Business Society and ILR Women's Caucus will be teaming up to videochat with Rachel Jacobson '96, the NBA's Senior Vice President of Business Development.

Rachel's NBA career spans 16 years, covering business development, marketing partnerships, merchandising, licensing, event marketing and more. In her current role, Rachel is responsible for sponsorship sales for both the NBA and WNBA, new business development, special events and community outreach.

In 2010, SportsBusiness Journal named Rachel to its Forty Under 40 list. Rachel is a 1996 graduate of the School of Hotel Administration.

A Small Step for a Big Change : A New NFL Schedule

Will this NFL draft soon become a staple of May sweeps?

The NFL, NFL players, and NFL fans hate the pre-season. It’s a month of football where the league stars barely play, stadiums are completely empty, and season ticket holders have to pay full price to see the games. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has long been a proponent of expanding the NFL regular season from 16 to 18 games and cutting the pre-season from four to two games. Despite the fact that NFL players are seemingly never going to agree to the extra two games, the NFL may be starting to answer some of the questions of how a new 18-game season would work.

Adam Schefter, of ESPN, tweeted that the NFL is discussing changes to the NFL off-season schedule. The change would move the NFL combine from late February to early March, the start of the league calendar year and free agency from early March to early April, the NFL draft from mid-April to early May, and having all 32 teams start training camp on the same day in late July or early August.

The NFL has obviously denied the connection between the proposed schedule change and the proposed 18-game schedule, but it is hard to not think they are related. If the NFL decides to not move week 1 of the NFL schedule, it would have to move the Super Bowl from the first weekend in February to President’s Day weekend in February and would have leave just a week between the Super Bowl and NFL combine. The NFL is subtly moving the league calendar to answer how an expanded regular season would work without ever mentioning the 18-game schedule.

As Schefter mentioned, the league is doing this for “business” reasons. The proposed shift not only attempts to keep the NFL relevant in 11 of the 12 months of the year with big events, but also attempts to increase the NFL’s television revenues. With the proposed change, the NFL would have the playoffs in January, Super Bowl in February, combine in March, free agency in April, draft in May, training camp in July, pre-season in August, and then the season from September to December. Outside of the month of June the NFL would continue to remain relevant with a big event each month. The NFL draft in May would place the draft in the middle of the May television sweeps, which the league hopes, would increase the advertisement money as well as TV ratings of the draft.

While the NFL’s proposed move seems harmless, it does not factor in where its new proposed schedule would fall into the general sports calendar. Right now, the NFL’s off-season schedule capitalizes on the dead period of other sports seasons. The NFL combine moves from a dead period in February to a dead period in March which is fine, but NFL free agency moves from a dead period in March to early April and will have to compete with MLB Opening Day. The NFL Draft currently competes with the early rounds of the NHL playoffs, the end of the NBA regular season, but the proposed change would move the draft in direct competition with later rounds of the NHL playoffs and the NBA playoffs, as well.

Is the NFL hoping that everyone will continue to care about their draft or free agency over other major sports events? I guess so. The NFL has reached a popularity level where every decision it makes is right. The players may block this new schedule and eventually an 18 game schedule, too.

But if this does pass, it will only increase the popularity of America’s number one sport.