A New Way to Look at the MVP Race

Clayton Kershaw: 2011 MVP?

The craziness of the 2011 MLB season has sparked extra heat under an already charged topic of debate: voting for the league’s Most Valuable Player. Consider the American League MVP race. Rarely, if ever, have the front-running candidates for baseball’s most prestigious award consisted of: A non-position player (Detroit pitcher Justin Verlander), two outfielders whose teams failed to make the playoffs (Toronto’s Jose Bautista and Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury- no comment necessary on the latter), and a third outfielder whose batting average just barely beats the league standard (New York’s Curtis Granderson, at .262).

The use of any of the conventional standards for MVP consideration (i.e. “best player on the best team,” “a pitcher can’t win” “BA/HR/RBI”) simply won’t work in the American League this season. So, perhaps the strange nature of this season’s award race will precipitate a fundamental shift in the way the term MVP is defined and determined.

Here’s one proposal: consider the literal definition of the word valuable. Inherently, expectations for each player are not equal; each player is held to a different standard based on his respective salary. In 2011, for instance, St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols contributed 5.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to his ballclub, collecting over $14 million for his efforts. New York Yankees’ outfielder Brett Gardner also provided his team with 5.1 WAR, but earned just a tad over $500,000. Thus, I would argue that Gardner was more “valuable” in the purest form of the word*.

*Assuming, of course, you buy into the advanced metric WAR – I don’t blame you if you have a hard time accepting that Pujols and Gardner had statistically comparable seasons.

The bottom line is that value should be assessed through the lens of cost-benefits anlaysis. To operationalize the term “value,” we should consider the ratio of dollars earned by a player to his contribution to wins. Gathering salary data (from USA Today) for every qualified Major League player in 2011, and the WAR for each of these players (from Fangraphs), we can identify which players were truly the most (and least) valuable.

Most Valuable Players

Player	Team	Salary	WAR	$/WAR
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	$500,000	6.8	$73,529.41
Alex Avila	DET	$425,000	5.5	$77,272.73
Doug Fister	SEA/DET	$436,500	5.6	$77,946.43
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	$452,500	5.7	$79,385.96
Madison Bumgarner	SF	$450,000	5.5	$81,818.18
Ian Kennedy	ARI	$423,000	5	$84,600.00
Cameron Maybin	SD	$429,100	4.7	$91,297.87
Mike Stanton	FLA	$416,000	4.5	$92,444.44
Justin Masterson	CLE	$468,400	4.9	$95,591.84
Peter Bourjos	LAA	$414,000	4.3	$96,279.07

Least Valuable Players

Player	Team	Salary	WAR	$/WAR
Kosuke Fukudome	CHC	$14,500,000	-0.2	($72,500,000.00)
Juan Pierre	CWS	$8,500,000	-0.4	($21,250,000.00)
Alex Rios	CWS	$12,500,000	-0.7	($17,857,142.86)
Aubrey Huff	SF	$10,000,000	-0.6	($16,666,666.67)
Raul Ibanez	PHI	$12,166,666	-1.3	($9,358,973.85)
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	$7,666,666	-1.3	($5,897,435.38)
Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	$18,000,000	0.2	$90,000,000.00
Vernon Wells	LAA	$26,187,500	0.3	$87,291,666.67
Carl Crawford	BOS	$14,857,142	0.2	$74,285,710.00
Jason Bay	NYM	$18,125,000	0.7	$25,892,857.14

Our analysis indicates that Los Angeles Dodger’s pitcher Clayton Kershaw was the most valuable player in the Majors in 2011, costing just over $73,000 per win above replacement. Amazingly, Seattle Mariners’ outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was the least-productive productive player, with his club shelling out $90 million per win above replacement he provided. Chicago Cubs’ outfielder Kosuke Fukudome brings least valuable to a new level; theoretically, should have owed his team over $72 million per win (below) replacement.

So there you have it: Kershaw for NL MVP. Value aside, his “hard” stats alone could potentially serve his case (9.57 K/9, 4.59 K/BB, 2.47 FIP). In the AL, forget the heavy hitters out east. Catcher Alex Avila of Detroit has been the most valuable player. Costing just above the league minimum in salary, Avila posted a very impressive .895 OPS while fielding baseball’s most difficult position flawlessly. Each player a star; each player a bargain. The essence of an MVP.

Below, check out the “most valuable team” for the 2011 season:

C: Alex Aliva, Detroit Tigers
1B: Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins
2B: Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates
SS: Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
3B: Ryan Roberts, Arizona Diamondbacks
LF: Bret Gardner, NY Yankees
CF: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
RF: Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins
DH: Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
P: Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers