Five Unconventional Predictions for the 2011 MLB Season

Your 2011 World Series Champions: Atlanta Braves

In all places not Ithaca, winter has finally drawn to a close, and life has re-emerged. Of the many signs that spring is underway, the onset of a new year in Major League Baseball is certainly one of the most exciting. Why? Because the possibilities for all* teams are virtually limitless. Did anyone predict a San Francisco Giants-Texas Rangers World Series last year? Probably not. Who would have expected the Cincinnati Reds to win the NL Central and Joey Votto to take home the NL MVP? Not I. And who thought the perennially bad San Diego Padres would hang in the playoff hunt until the final day of the season? Definitely not I. So with the concept of “possibility” in mind, I give you five predictions geared around the notion that anything could happen this season. The goal of this post is not to reiterate common baseball perceptions, but rather to spark debate and shed light on the new season’s vast realm of possibilities.
*Does not include Royals, Indians, or Pirates

Check out the predictions after the jump:

1. If you’re looking for this year’s Giants, then search no further than across the San Francisco Bay. The Oakland Athletics will win the American League West for the first time since 2006, and could even make noise in October. Granted, the A’s are something of a trendy sleeper pick this season, but they are still underdogs by nature. Their patchwork veteran lineup coupled with a foursome of up and coming young pitchers (Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson), mirrors the San Francisco model from last season. In 2010, both teams were, by most accounts, average offensively, ranking 17th and 23rd, respectively, in runs scored. But the Giants were able to propel themselves into and through the playoffs on the brute strength of their arms. The team lead the majors with a 3.36 ERA and were fourth in WHIP at 1.27. The A’s were right behind them, fourth in ERA at 3.56 and sixth in WHIP at 1.28. Perhaps most relevant to success is the category in which the A’s lead all teams, including even the Giants: quality starts. The A’s had 103 of those compared to the Giants’ 95. In other words, the A’s starters kept their team in the game more than any other team in the majors. Throw in a bit of timely hitting (the addition of former World Series MVP Hideki Matsui will assist here), and the A’s should be able to overtake the Cliff Lee-less Rangers.

2. To anyone who jumped to crown the Philadelphia Phillies National League champs back in November, keep in mind that baseball is not won on paper. I am not a member of the Phillies’ overcrowded bandwagon, nor do I foresee an NL crown in their immediate future. In fact, I don’t even see an NL East crown in their near future. Talented as their pitching rotation may be (and make no mistake, it is indeed tremendous, possibly the best ever), their lineup is littered with questions, ranging from the health of Chase Utley to the vacancy left by Jayson Werth in right field. According to FanGraphs, these two accounted for 10.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2010, a level of production that even the signing of Cliff Lee (2010 WAR = 7.1) cannot counter alone. While I like the Phillies to come away with the wild card, the Atlanta Braves, who, top to bottom, may be the most well balanced team in the league, are ripe to win this division. In the process, I see Tommy Hanson emerging as one of the game’s elite starting pitchers.

3. As embodied in Philadelphia, the National League is saturated with great young pitchers. How can you choose just one Cy Young winner among Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, and Josh Johnson? You don’t. Yovani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers will win the National League Cy Young Award in 2011. Gallardo is a young, emerging pitcher who appears ready to take the next step into stardom. His 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), good for third best in the majors, illustrates his electrifying stuff. But here’s the real catch: last season, he endured a .324 BABIP, the eighth highest in the league. What does this mean? It means that of all balls put into contact off Gallardo, over 32% landed for hits. The assumption among sabermetricians is that pitchers do not control whether a batted ball lands for a hit, meaning Gallardo endured a rather unlucky season. Should his BABIP regress to a more typical .300, you can expect an improvement in his stats all across the board.

In the American League, I like Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox. It’s hard to bet against the Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez, who lead the league in virtually ever category in his 2010 Cy Young campaign, but Lester has shown nothing but promise, boasting a 3.25 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and a better-than Gallardo 9.74 K/9.

4. San Francisco’s Buster Posey and a New York Yankee will win the respective league MVP awards. Posey, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, will add the NL MVP to his growing collection of baseball trophies in his first full year in the majors. Posey had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 3.9 in just 108 games last season. That’s an average of .036 WAR per game played, a figure almost identical to fellow star catcher and former AL MVP Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins. If the Giants are to repeat, Posey will be essential to their defense. My ambiguous “Yankee” pick is one of two players: Robinson Cano or Alex Rodriguez. Cano seems like the more standard choice, who, after a monster year in 2010, proved to be the centerpiece of the Yankees offense. His numbers featured a 29 homeruns and a .915 OPS. My A-Rod pick is more of a gut feel, one that is harder to quantify. He had a great spring training, and he could return to 2009 postseason form. Regardless of who wins, it is evident that the Yankees will need to slug their way to a playoff berth, as the re-tooled Boston Red Sox are far and away the class of the AL East. I think the Yankees have the hitting to squeeze into the playoffs, and should they do so, their top hitter should be recognized accordingly.

5. It’s difficult not to pick a Red Sox-Phillies World Series. There’s a good reason these teams are the Las Vegas favorites, as Boston seems to be the most complete team in baseball (by far) and Philadelphia’s killer rotation makes them a dangerous matchup for anyone in the postseason. But for argument’s sake, I’m going with this Fall Classic: Atlanta Braves over Chicago White Sox, in seven games, catcher Brian McCann is the MVP. The White Sox, with a deep pitching staff and solid lineup, will enjoy their signing of Adam Dunn. Dunn was born to be a DH, and the White Sox desperately needed a power hitter in the heart of their lineup. He should put them over the hump in the ultra-close AL Central, where the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins will also vie for the title. Ultimately, I like the White Sox, and I trust their pitching to come through in October and deliver their first AL pennant since 2005. As I mentioned earlier, the Braves may be the most complete team in the National League. Their pitching, bullpen, and lineup (featuring a more experienced Jayson Heyward and a newly acquired Dan Ugggla) will propel them to their first title since 1995.

What are your predictions for the 2011 MLB Season? Let us know in the comments below.